473：灵长类机器

本节目由21世纪传媒制作出品

This program is produced by 21st Century Media.

作者打从经济生活任督而迈

The author strides along the path of economic life.

大家好 欢迎收听东吴相对论

Hello everyone, welcome to Dongwu Theory.

我是梁东

I am Liang Dong.

对面的依然是21世纪商业评论发行人

Opposite is still the publisher of the 21st Century Business Review.

吴伯凡 老吴你好

Hello, Wu Bofan (Old Wu).

大家好

Hello everyone.

前段时间大家都说老吴去哪了

Recently, everyone has been asking where Old Wu went.

其实老吴去趟欧洲

Actually, Old Wu went to Europe.

在欧洲参加了一个国际性的研讨会

Attended an international seminar in Europe.

在这个会上老吴也和大家一起探讨了一些东西

At this meeting, Old Wu also discussed some things with everyone.

比如说在新的工业革命时代来临的时候

For example, when the new industrial revolution era arrives.

人的价值到底是怎样的

What is the value of a person?

中国 欧洲应该各自扮演什么样的角色

What roles should China and Europe each play?

其实机器是不是正在把我们

In fact, is the machine not turning us into...

人有一种新的这种挤压

There is a new kind of pressure on people.

就我们以前在东吴里面也讨论过一个问题

We have discussed a question before in Dongwu as well.

前面我们说到过的这一个

The one we mentioned earlier.

这个神一样的同声传译员

This god-like simultaneous interpreter.

对

Correct.

那让我肃然起敬的

That made me feel a deep respect.

是不是15年以后

Is it after 15 years?

如果这个机器足够智能的话

If this machine is intelligent enough.

这么一个人都可能失业

Such a person could still be unemployed.

我觉得他是最不容易失业的一种职业

I think he's in the type of job that is least likely to lead to unemployment.

对啊

That's right.

所以我们以前呢

So in the past, we...

对于机器的看法呢

What is your opinion on machines?

是机器它某种程度上是人的力量的延伸

A machine is, to some extent, an extension of human power.

就是我们肌肉的延伸

It is the extension of our muscles.

体力

Physical strength

体力的延伸

Extension of physical strength

就是火车飞机本质上都是这种东西

Trains and airplanes are essentially the same kind of thing.

是吧

Is that so?

就过去体力劳动最早汉语里头

The earliest physical labor in Chinese.

最早一的时候

At the very beginning.

特生硬非常生硬

Very stiff and awkward.

它不叫体力劳动

It is not called physical labor.

叫筋肉劳动

It's called manual labor.

以前的机器差不多都是对人的体力的一个延伸

Machines in the past were almost an extension of human physical strength.

后来那是感觉的延伸的

Later, that was an extension of feelings.

比如说手机可视频电话

For example, mobile phones can make video calls.

就是我们眼睛耳朵的延伸

It is an extension of our eyes and ears.

对感官的延伸

Extension of the senses

对现在最可怕的事情

The most frightening thing right now.

是开始对我们的脑神经开始延伸了

It is beginning to extend to our brain nerves.

对

Yes.

灵长类机器人出现了

Primate robots have emerged.

嗯

Hmm.

到欧洲之前正好有一本书

There happened to be a book right before going to Europe.

中兴出版社出了一本书

ZTE Press published a book.

叫第二次机器革命

The Second Machine Revolution.

我写了一个推荐

I wrote a recommendation.

也送给了欧洲的一些朋友

It was also given to some friends in Europe.

他们也知道这本书

They also know this book.

他们很吃惊

They were very surprised.

这本书刚刚出来

This book has just come out.

我们中国就出了

We just came out from China.

一下子我们就找到了共同的话题

Soon we found a common topic to talk about.

在欧洲

In Europe.

这个是一个世界性的话题

This is a global topic.

不是专属于中国的了

It is no longer exclusive to China.

也跟我们所关心的第三次工业革命

Also related to the third industrial revolution that we are concerned about.

关系非常密切

The relationship is very close.

这个话题啊

This topic, ah.

就是说

That is to say

如果第一代机器

If the first generation machine

我们把它再次

We do it again.

我们这个时代之前

Before our time

嗯

Hmm.

往后看的所有的这个机器

All this machine that looks ahead.

包括在农业时代出现的那种

Including that which emerged in the agricultural era.

呃

Uh

水车

Waterwheel

还还不是用用钢铁做的

It's still made of steel.

就是农村里头

It's just in the countryside.

我小时候看到这种那种水车

When I was little, I saw this kind of waterwheel.

那也是一种人的体力的延伸吗

Is that also an extension of human physical strength?

嗯

Well.

啊

Ah.

到后来的

to the later ones

就是工业革命

It's the Industrial Revolution.

是一个1776年

It is a 1776.

晚的

Evening's

瓦特改造了蒸汽机

Watt改造了蒸汽机。

不是发明了蒸汽机啊

It's not about inventing the steam engine.

瓦特他在此之前他已经有蒸汽机了

Watt already had a steam engine before this.

他让这个蒸汽机变得相当的就是蒸汽机呢

He made this steam engine quite literally a steam engine.

优化到是一个可靠的生产资料了

Optimization has become a reliable production resource.

以前都基本上是介乎玩具和工具之间的这么一个东西啊

It used to be something that was basically between a toy and a tool.

到1776年

By 1776

由于这个瓦特的蒸汽机出现了工业革命就开始了

The Industrial Revolution began due to the emergence of Watt's steam engine.

他最早是用于纺织嘛

It was originally used for textiles.

纺织机嘛

It's a loom.

嗯

Hmm.

真理纺织机

Truth Loom

后来坐火车

Later took the train.

坐火车

Take the train.

这都是都是跟蒸汽机有关的嘛

These are all related to the steam engine.

在后来我们看到一些大吊车是吧

Later we saw some large cranes, right?

包括后来的什么集装箱革命等等

Including later developments such as the container revolution, etc.

都是一个对人的体力的一个巨大的延伸

It is a tremendous extension of human physical strength.

你看那个公路修的那个速度

Look at the speed at which that road is being constructed.

过去古代啊

In ancient times.

修一条路

Build a road.

那那那真的是很难很难的

That really is very, very difficult.

嗯

Hmm.

我现在我们那种速度

I now realize our speed.

尤其是我们中国速度修高速公路

Especially our Chinese speed in building highways.

修隧道的那个速度

The speed of tunneling.

之所以那么快

The reason for being so fast.

还真的是仰仗于这些四肢极其发达的这种机器

It really relies on these machines with extremely developed limbs.

过第一代机器可以概括成头脑简单

The first generation of machines can be summarized as having simple minds.

简单到几乎是没有的

Simple to the point of almost being nonexistent.

嗯

Hmm.

他没有什么智能的

He doesn't have much intelligence.

有一丁丁点智能

There is a tiny bit of intelligence.

第二次机器革命

The Second Machine Revolution

指这个体力的延伸到脑力的延伸

Refers to the extension of physical strength to mental strength.

也就是说他变得有头脑了

That is to say, he has become more sensible.

头脑不那么简单了

The mind is no longer that simple.

可能刚开始比较简单

It might be relatively simple at the beginning.

后来不简单

Later it became complicated.

比如说机器人

For example, robots.

嗯

Um.

机器人他本质上是机器吗

Is a robot essentially a machine?

应该说成叫人机器

It should be called a calling machine.

不能叫机器人

Cannot be called a robot.

他本质上是就像熊猫

He is essentially like a panda.

应该叫猫熊

It should be called a panda.

不能叫熊猫

Cannot be called a panda.

那个机器人他本身是机器

That robot is itself a machine.

但是呢

But you see,

他带有了人的某些特点

He has taken on certain characteristics of a human.

比如知能力

For example, the ability to know.

有随机应变的能力

Having the ability to adapt to changes.

他不是满力了

He is not fully committed.

嗯

Hmm.

有能够使那个巧力

There is a way to make that skillful.

能够动脑子了

Can think now.

嗯

Hmm.

那种机器跟以前的那个

That kind of machine is like the one from before.

嗯

Hmm.

,那个像蒸汽机有什么不一样呢

What's the difference compared to a steam engine?

两者的分别

The differences between the two.

我们就可以就生发出一大堆的那种思考出来

We can then generate a whole bunch of that kind of thinking.

一个同层传译哈的人

A simultaneous interpreter.

他中间有很微妙的力量性

He has a subtle sense of power in the middle.

但是是很复杂的情绪在里面的能力

But it involves complex emotions within the capability.

嗯

Hmm.

在以前呢

In the past.

呃

Uh

我们觉得这个事情的是人的特长

We think that this matter is a person's specialty.

嗯

Hmm.

有了机器

With machines.

让我们人呢

Let us be human.

可以做一些重要的事情

Can do some important things.

嗯

Um.

比如说这种事情哈

For example, this kind of thing.

结果你后来发现

As a result, you later found out.

嗯

Uh-huh.

越来越多的不是说长得像人一样的机器人那样的

More and more are not robots that look like humans.

嗯

Um.

是各种的功能电脑应用

It is a computer application with various functions.

他开始扮演这种角色了

He has started to play this role.

嗯

Uh-huh.

比如说

For example.

根据现在的这种语言的这种翻译能力的进化速度

According to the current evolution speed of this language's translation capabilities.

嗯

Um.

应该10到15年

It should be 10 to 15 years.

人类的同步同声传译

Human simultaneous interpretation.

甚至带着感情的同声传译呢

Even simultaneous interpretation with emotion.

就可以变成是自动化的了

It can become automated.

嗯

Hmm.

然后他的成本就会大幅降低

Then his costs will be greatly reduced.

嗯

Hmm.

在其他领域

In other fields.

其他取代人功能的各种应用也会故事同步出现的

Various applications that replace human functions will also emerge in line with the story.

对

Correct.

于是就涌现出一个问题

This gave rise to a question.

人

Person

我们以前在动物里面也讨论过问题

We have discussed issues among animals before.

人到底还有什么用

What use is a person after all?

嗯

Hmm.

第一代机器

First generation machine

作为人的体力延伸的机器

A machine that extends human physical strength.

它是人类的帮手

It is a helper for humanity.

嗯

Hmm.

第二代机器呢

What about the second generation machines?

它既是人类的

It is both human's.

比如说电脑

For example, a computer.

嗯

Hmm.

智能手机

Smartphone

机器人

Robot

它也是

It is also.

高智能的

Highly intelligent

这种同声传译的

This simultaneous interpretation of

这种

this kind

未来的这种机器

The machines of the future.

它

It

人类的帮手

Human's helper

也可能是人类的对手

It could also be humanity's opponent.

嗯

Hmm.

L

L

因为它具有认知能力

Because it has cognitive abilities.

同时它还有学习能力

At the same time, it also has the ability to learn.

在某种程度上

To some extent.

它

It

如果你不加以遏制的话

If you do not restrain it.

它有它的自己的

It has its own.

呃

Uh

做判断的能力

The ability to make judgments.

过去呢

The past.

它只是一个奴隶

It is just a slave.

没有任何制作主张的

No production claims at all.

能性

Possibility

一切事物

Everything

在从开始做的开

Starting from the beginning.

那一扇呢

What about that one?

它就开始在走向它开始的那个反面

It begins to move towards the opposite of where it started.

嗯

Hmm.

比如说

For example

你拥有一个奴隶

You have a slave.

这个机器哈

This machine, huh?

嗯

Uh-huh.

经过它的进化的时间到一定程度的时候

When it has evolved to a certain extent of time.

你就会自然而然的发现

You will naturally discover.

异化成了

Alienation has become.

它变成你的主人了

It has become your master.

这种事情常常发生

Such things often happen.

那是另外一个层面的东西

That's something on another level.

啊

Ah.

第一

First

汽车

Car

嗯

Hmm.

啊

Ah

它是你的帮手

It is your helper.

嗯

Hmm.

延伸了你的腿嘛

Did you extend your leg?

嗯

Hmm.

这是腿的延伸

This is the extension of the leg.

延伸的过程实际上也是一个摧残的过程

The process of extension is actually also a process of devastation.

毁灭的过程

The process of destruction

以前我们讲了过

We have talked about it before.

就麦

Just wheat.

麦克罗汉说

McLuhan said.

一切延伸同时也是一个无痛皆知嘛

Everything extends while also being a universally known painlessness.

嗯

Hmm.

就是把你的手延伸了

It just extends your hand.

但是你本来的手的力量

But the strength of your original hand.

和腿的力量就逐渐的会萎缩

The strength of the legs will gradually atrophy.

这是哲学意义上的

This is in a philosophical sense.

嗯

Hmm.

现在是什么

What time is it now?

这个

this

是技术意义上的

It is technically meaningful.

技术意义上的

In the technical sense.

以前是一个讨论

It was a discussion before.

现在是我们有可能目睹

Now it is possible for us to witness.

而且这个事情可能就是发生在未来五年

And this event may happen in the next five years.

十年

Ten years

十五年里面

In the past fifteen years.

对

Correct.

稍息休息

At ease, take a break.

马上继续回来

I will be back soon.

做着打通经济生活

Facilitating economic activities.

任督而买

Buy with authority and confidence.

和老吴今天讨论的问题是

The question discussed with Old Wu today is

第二次机器革命

The Second Machine Revolution

当机器变成零掌类机器的时候

When machines become zero-mastery machines.

人到底还要怎么办呢

What should people do in the end?

对

Correct.

什么是第二次机器革命

What is the Second Machine Revolution?

为什么说第二代机器

Why is it called the second generation machine?

已经从人体力的延伸

It has already extended from the physical strength of the human body.

变为脑力的延伸

Become an extension of the mind.

第二代机器跟以前的机器

The second-generation machine compared to the previous machines.

有什么不同

What is the difference?

为什么说第一代机器是人类的帮手

Why is it said that the first generation of machines are helpers to humans?

而第二代机器既可能是人类的帮手

The second-generation machines could be helpers to humans.

也可能是人类的对手

It could also be the opponent of humanity.

为什么说机器的进化速度

Why is it said that the evolution speed of machines

远远高于人类的进化速度

Far higher than the evolutionary speed of humans.

欢迎收听

Welcome to listen.

东吴相对论

Eastern Wu Relativity

本期话题

This issue's topic

零掌类机器

Zero-grasp robots

做着打通经济生活

Facilitating economic life.

任督而买

Buy the Ren and Du points.

大家好

Hello everyone.

欢迎收听东吴相对论

Welcome to the Dongwu Theory.

我是梁东

I am Liang Dong.

对面的依然是21世纪商业评论发行人

The person across is still the publisher of 21st Century Business Review.

吴伯凡老吴你好

Hello, Old Wu (Wu Bofan).

大家好

Hello everyone.

老吴呢

Where's Old Wu?

我们今天谈论的一个话题啊

One topic we are discussing today.

就是第一次的机器革命呢

It's the first machine revolution.

是机器延伸了我们的肌肉

It is machines that extend our muscles.

机器是我们的帮手

Machines are our helpers.

但是随着现在的机器的

But with the current machines...

尤其是

Especially

大数据的集成

Integration of big data

尤其是很多的应用和

Especially many applications and

我们不是说机器人

We are not talking about robots.

很多的应用

Many applications.

他开始在模仿

He started to imitate.

学习人的思维逻辑

Learn the thinking logic of people.

甚至慢慢慢慢

Even slowly, slowly.

由他开始制作的判断的时候

When he began to make judgments.

人到底怎么办

What should one do after all?

收缩引擎

Contraction engine

慢慢慢慢的

Slowly, slowly.

他背后有他的整个的运算逻辑

He has his entire operational logic behind him.

现在很多的那个答案

Now there are many of those answers.

都是经过网上的这种进化

It has all evolved through the internet.

最后给到你的

Finally given to you.

慢慢慢慢的

Slowly, slowly.

你看见什么东西

What do you see?

和不看见什么东西

And see nothing.

是他生成的了

It was generated by him.

举个最简单的例子

For instance, the simplest example is...

就那个输入法

Just that input method.

它只是一个工具

It's just a tool.

你就打字的

You just type it.

但是他自己

But he himself.

他有一个自我学习的过程

He has a process of self-learning.

比如说有些那种新的词

For example, some of those new words.

新的词

New words

你输入法上

On your input method.

生成新的词的速度

The speed of generating new words.

最快的一天就可以了

The fastest day will do.

比如说暖男这个词

For example, the term "warm man."

就他第二天他就会出现

He will show up the next day.

当你打暖的时候

When you warm up.

他就出来

He just came out.

就一个联想

Just a thought.

暖男就出现了

The warm-hearted guy has appeared.

这个你过去

This is your past.

你这个更新的周期

Your update cycle.

要很快的

Need to be quick.

因为这个输入法

Because of this input method

它是一个

It is a

跟输出

Output with.

结合了

combined with

它跟输入营结合

It is combined with the input camp.

简单的说就是大脑

Simply put, it's the brain.

人类的集体大脑

The collective brain of humanity.

云

Cloud

云际上这个云

The cloud on the horizon.

它在里头呢

It's inside there.

它化合成什么东西

What does it compound into?

它在悄悄的工作

It is working quietly.

甚至不受之前的工程师的影响

Even unaffected by the previous engineers.

完全不受你的影响

Completely unaffected by you.

跟你最初的那个创作的那个人

With the person who created that original work with you.

初衷和他的设想

The original intention and his vision.

偏离的

Deviated

偏离

Deviate

有的会大大超出这个东西

Some will greatly exceed this thing.

就是说这个词库里头

That is to say, in this vocabulary.

它就不断的在更新

It keeps updating continually.

它是一种

It is a type of.

自动的更新

Automatic updates

它随时就在增加那个词

It is constantly adding that word.

这是个最简单的例子啊

This is the simplest example.

对

Yes.

也就是说

That is to say.

它有某种自我进化的能力

It has a certain ability for self-evolution.

第二次机器革命

The Second Machine Revolution

这本书里头

In this book.

他讲到了三个动力啊

He talked about three motivators.

新一代这种机器啊

The new generation of this kind of machine.

我们把它叫领长的一机器

We call it a machine for extending the lead.

他有思维能力

He has cognitive ability.

有学习能力

Has learning ability.

甚至慢慢还有情绪了

Even slowly, there are still emotions.

对这个学习能力

Regarding this learning ability.

也就是说

That is to say.

他有一种自我优化的进化的这种能力

He has the ability to evolve through self-optimization.

嗯啊

Hmm, yes.

过去的机器

The past machine.

他他要优化一点

He needs to optimize it a bit.

一定是有另外一个人去做人

There must be someone else doing it.

让他优化一点

Let him optimize it a bit.

现在呢

What about now?

是他自己可以优化

He can optimize it himself.

基本的是还别就在这里头啊

The basics are not just here.

就是说一个是体力的

That means one is physical strength.

一个是脑力的

One is mental effort.

而且他有一个背后

And he has something behind him.

有一个特别要命的东西

There is something particularly deadly.

比如说我们领长

For example, we can lead.

我们人是领长的动物啊

We humans are social animals.

那个猴儿

That monkey.

我们的近亲

Our close relatives.

但他这个大脑的进化的速度啊

But the speed of evolution of his brain is just tremendous.

是很慢的

It's very slow.

嗯

Yes.

你说这几千年来

You said for these thousands of years.

我们说

We say.

我们比孔子

We are better than Confucius.

比苏格拉底时代的人

Compared to the people of Socrates' time.

聪明多少

How clever.

比那个大佬来说

Compared to that big shot.

你很难说比他聪明多

It's hard to say you are much smarter than him.

甚至你可能还不如那个时候的人

You might even be worse than the people from that time.

但是

But

以跟计算机有关的东西

Related to computers.

他的速度呢

What about his speed?

他是都遵守这个摩尔定律的

He fully adheres to this Moore's Law.

就是18个月性能提高一倍

It means that performance has doubled in 18 months.

价格降低一半

The price has been reduced by half.

过去我把那电脑坏了的

I broke that computer in the past.

我都我都拿去就扔了

I just took it and threw it away.

或者说很廉价的卖了

Or it could be said that it was sold very cheaply.

现在我就

I will do it now.

不卖了

Not for sale anymore.

我今天很有意思

I am very interesting today.

我那手机一一摞一摞了

My phone has piled up one after another.

放在那那个那个很有意思

Putting that over there is very interesting.

其实时间并不长跨度

In fact, the time span is not long.

比如说十年的时间

For example, a period of ten years.

你就有一种黄鹿格格式的感觉

You have a feeling of the Yellow Deer Format.

甚至是有些东西

Even some things

有的小孩看见了

Some children saw it.

他都不知道那是什么东西

He doesn't even know what that thing is.

嗯

Hmm.

这个时间呢

At this time.

可能也就是十

Maybe it's just ten.

就就十年的时间

Just ten years.

十年的文物级的那个产品

A decade-old artifact-level product.

啊

Ah

就就就能出现了

It can just appear.

也许以后会出现一些

Perhaps something will emerge in the future.

二十年

Twenty years

因为跨度的这种考古学家

Because of this span, an archaeologist.

呵呵呵呵呵

Hehehehehehe.

就是二十年之后的人

It's a person from twenty years later.

考古iPhone六plus

Archaeological iPhone 6 Plus

然后呢

And then?

有一个丑

There is an ugly.

一个人成为了这个在大学的考古学系

A person has become part of the archaeology department at the university.

可以讲这门课二十年前的苹果手机

This course can be about the Apple phone from twenty years ago.

哈哈哈哈

Hahaha

像诺基亚的一些那个是经典款

Some of those, like Nokia's, are classic models.

嗯

Hmm.

用手机

Use the phone.

我现在有一款

I currently have a model.

大家到我家里看到那个东西

Everyone comes to my house to see that thing.

都要拿起来玩一玩

You all have to pick them up and play with them.

嗯

Hmm.

那个感觉

That feeling.

一种回到从前的那种感觉

A feeling of returning to the past.

我们中国人用筷子用了几千年了

We Chinese people have been using chopsticks for thousands of years.

嗯

Um.

,你现在看着筷子都不会产生这种冲动的

You don't feel that kind of impulse even when looking at chopsticks now.

对啊

Yeah.

还有五寸盘

There is also a five-inch plate.

就是那个电脑里头那种软盘

It's the kind of floppy disk that was inside that computer.

前两天有个人给我一张AP三格式的一个碟

A couple of days ago, someone gave me a disc in AP3 format.

我发现我家里面居然没有一个光驱

I found that there isn't a single optical drive in my house.

嗯

Um.

就没有了

That's it.

这个电脑没有了

This computer is gone.

没有光驱了

No more CD drives.

所以你都不知道拿这个AP三盘的干嘛

So you don’t know what to do with this AP three-piece set?

对这个问题就是他的进化速度

The issue is his speed of evolution.

就人脑的进化速度很慢

The evolution speed of the human brain is very slow.

我对不起

I'm sorry.

我一定还要举一个例子

I definitely want to give another example.

这个例子太传神了

This example is truly vivid.

我几乎在每一个五星级的最顶级的酒店能看见一个没有用的一个

I can see a useless one in almost every top-notch five-star hotel.

iPod的那个插口

The port of the iPod.

就那个音响那个就关的

Just turn off that speaker.

你知道吗

Do you know?

对对对

That's right, that's right.

我昨天还在酒店里都看到了

I saw it in the hotel yesterday.

就是每一个酒店都放着这么一个用不上的东西

Every hotel has something like this that is useless.

当时你知道吗

Did you know at that time?

最刚iPhone刚出来的时候

When the iPhone first came out.

我在广州有个酒店叫博尔曼

I have a hotel in Guangzhou called Bolman.

那个酒店里头就我觉得这个酒店好酷啊

I think this hotel inside is really cool.

啊

Ah.

你就是那个iPhone往上头一插

You are the one who inserts the iPhone upwards.

啊

Ah.

还可以充电

You can also charge it.

还可以放音响

You can also put the speakers.

充电又可以那个音响很好

Charging can also make that speaker very good.

对啊

Yes.

当时现在呢

At that time, how about now?

就都成了文物

Then they all become cultural relics.

他也不能改造一下

He can't change it either.

他那完全是个废品了

That's completely junk.

这个细节特别有意思

This detail is particularly interesting.

就放在那再放个五年

Just leave it there for another five years.

他就成文物

He has become a cultural relic.

再放个五十年就成为名贵文物了

In another fifty years, it will become a valuable cultural relic.

古迹

Historical site

电脑的这个进化速度

The evolution speed of computers.

他极其的快

He is extremely fast.

加速度的成长

Accelerated growth

使得人的人脑跟电脑的竞赛

Making the human brain compete with computers.

发生了很微妙的一个

Something very subtle happened.

很微妙的一种状态

A very subtle state.

我要提醒大家

I want to remind everyone.

大家讲到电脑的时候

When everyone talks about computers

千万别想到这个一个笔记本了

Don't even think about this notebook.

一个电脑

A computer

一个PC啊

A PC.

不是的

No.

我们今天讲的电脑

The computer we are talking about today.

其实是一个系统集成

Actually, it is a system integration.

就是

That is/just.

数字化技术的各种机器

Various machines of digital technology

这你还是要重复一下

You still need to repeat this.

那个古老的故事

That ancient story.

就是那个国王跟农夫下棋的那个故事

It's the story of the king playing chess with the farmer.

那个故事稍微有点复杂

That story is a bit complicated.

但是我觉得故事极其深刻

But I think the story is extremely profound.

上次有请马上继续回来

Last time, please come back immediately.

做着打通经济生活

Connecting economic life.

任督而买

"Buying while controlling the Ren and Du meridians."

东吴相对论

Eastern Wu Relativity

什么是第二次机器革命

What is the Second Machine Revolution?

为什么说第二代机器

Why is it called the second generation of machines?

已经从人体力的延伸

Already an extension of human physical strength.

变为脑力的延伸

Become an extension of the mind.

第二代机器

Second-generation machine

跟以前的机器有什么不同

What is different from the machines of the past?

为什么说第一代机器是人类的帮手

Why is it said that the first generation of machines are helpers for humanity?

而第二代机器既可能是人类的帮手

The second-generation machines could be helpers for humans.

也可能是人类的对手

It could also be a rival of humanity.

为什么说机器的进化速度

Why is it said that the evolution speed of machines

远远高于人类的进化速度

Far higher than the evolution speed of humans.

欢迎继续收听东吴相对论

Welcome to continue listening to Dongwu Theory.

本期话题领长类机器

This issue's topic is about long-tailed machines.

做着打通经济生活

Connecting economic activities.

任督而买

"Virtue and ambition in pursuit."

大家好

Hello everyone.

欢迎收听东吴相对论

Welcome to Dongwu Theory.

我是梁东

I am Liang Dong.

对面依然是21世纪商业评论发行人

On the opposite side is still the publisher of the 21st Century Business Review.

吴不凡

Wu Bufen

老吴你好

Hello, Old Wu.

大家好

Hello everyone.

今天我们讲到的是第二次机器革命

Today we are talking about the Second Machine Revolution.

提到的这个变化

The change mentioned.

电脑或者是互联网应用

Computer or internet applications

这样可能更传递我们想讲的东西

This may better convey what we want to say.

它的很多功能

Its many functions.

它遵守的一种所谓的摩尔定律

It adheres to a so-called Moore's Law.

就是每18个月功能增加一倍

It means that the functionality doubles every 18 months.

然后成本降低一半

Then the cost is reduced by half.

这个事情就让我们想起了

This matter reminds us of...

之前的那一个

The previous one.

国王下象棋盘的那个故事

The story of the king who placed the chessboard.

对

Yes.

这种状况呢

This situation.

我们也说过和堂效应

We have also mentioned the Hall effect.

国王事先问他

The king asked him in advance.

你要是下营了

If you go down to the camp.

你要得到什么奖赏

What reward do you want to receive?

他说我就是家里头缺粮食

He said that the family is just lacking food.

你就赏给我一点粮食就行

Just give me a little food, and that will be enough.

但是怎么赏呢

But how should we reward it?

他说其实就是

He actually said that.

第一个格里头放一粒米

Put a grain of rice in the first compartment.

第二个格放两粒米

Put two grains of rice in the second compartment.

就这样放

Just leave it like that.

那国王一听这个

When the king heard this...

这才有几粒米啊

How can there be only a few grains of rice?

这样就

This way.

但如果按这个计算的方法

But if we calculate in this way...

也就是说

That is to say.

他相当于就是就是要乘六十三次嘛

He basically has to multiply by sixty-three times.

二的六十三次方

Two raised to the sixty-third power.

据说这个数字我没有算过

It is said that I haven't calculated this number.

据说是十八个零

It is said to be eighteen zeros.

一的后头十八个零

One followed by eighteen zeros.

我们知道

We know.

第一粒

The first particle.

第一个格子里面放一粒米

Put one grain of rice in the first square.

第二个格子里面放两粒

Put two pills in the second compartment.

四粒

Four grains.

八粒

Eight grains

十六粒

Sixteen pieces.

是吧

Is that so?

放到第六十四个格子的时候

When placed in the sixty-fourth slot.

他后面有多少粒米呢

How many grains of rice does he have behind him?

我只知道说有有十八个零

I only know how to say there are eighteen zeros.

有八个零就是一个亿

Eight zeros represent one hundred million.

就你就去算去吧

Just go ahead and count it yourself.

这叫指数级增长啊

This is called exponential growth.

负力效应也是这样的负力效应

The negative force effect is also this kind of negative force effect.

富在在爱因斯坦说过

Einstein once said.

世界上最大的能量不是核能量

The world's greatest energy is not nuclear energy.

而是负力

But rather negative force.

人老是不遵守这个这个规律的

People often do not follow this rule.

你能做点加法就不容易了

It's not that difficult if you can do a bit of addition.

不做减法不做除法就很不错了啊

Not doing subtraction and not doing division is already pretty good.

其实很多人到一定年龄的时候

In fact, many people reach a certain age when

加法是反正是做不成的

Addition is something that just can't be done anyway.

逐渐的然后就开始做减法

Gradually, then you start to subtract.

再到后来就是做除法了

Later on, it was about doing division.

这个机器他的智力的提升

The improvement of this machine's intelligence.

你不要瞧不起他

Don't underestimate him.

他现在是不行

He is not capable now.

但是他的速度的可怕的就是他的那个指数的这种指数的速度

But the terrifying thing about his speed is the exponential nature of that speed.

这个极点奇怪的

This is quite strange.

其这个字他就临近那个极点就是那个那个平衡点了以后再过了那个那个那个点以后

Once this character approaches that extreme point, which is the balance point, and then goes beyond that point...

那就完全就到过来了

Then it has completely arrived.

所以巴菲特最多的钱都他五十岁以后挣的吧

So Buffett earned most of his money after he turned fifty, right?

对

Yes.

他五十岁以前不是很贵的吧

He wasn't very expensive before he turned fifty, was he?

很有钱的

Very wealthy.

原因是他盘子越来越大

The reason is that his plate is getting bigger and bigger.

他可能是我们知道这个人类历史上玩投资玩的时间最长的人之一了

He may be one of the longest-playing investors in human history that we know of.

他很少很少的时候

He rarely, rarely times.

时间还能长寿嘛

Can time still have longevity?

对这个很重要活一年

It’s very important to live for a year.

他就是就像那个格子象棋那个格子六十三个格子

He is just like that checkered chessboard, with sixty-three squares.

第六三个格子其实不多的

The sixth and third boxes actually aren't many.

第六十六十个格子的时候都还是还比较少的

When it comes to the sixtieth box, there are still relatively few.

你但是又是一六十二六三六四的时候

You are, however, at one sixty-two, one sixty-three, and one sixty-four.

那就非常可怕

That would be very scary.

就像是这个发工资

It's just like this when it comes to paying salaries.

第一天发了一分钱

On the first day, I earned one cent.

第二天发了两分钱

The next day, I sent two cents.

这个工资

This salary.

但如果这个月是二十八天呢

But what if this month has twenty-eight days?

你就你就生日就很低的

Your birthday is very low-key.

到三十一天的时候呢

By the time it reaches the thirty-first day.

你的工资应该是一千零二十四万美元

Your salary should be ten million twenty-four thousand dollars.

是吧

Isn't it?

这么多

So much.

如果那个月是三十天呢

What if that month has thirty days?

你只有五百一十二

You only have five hundred twelve.

你只有五百一十二万美元

You only have five million one hundred twelve thousand dollars.

如果是二十九天呢

What if it's twenty-nine days?

你可以算的嘛

Can you calculate it?

是吧

Is that so?

所以一定要活得长啊

So you must live a long life.

老吴

Old Wu

如果是二十八天呢

What if it's twenty-eight days?

那就是

That is.

那就一百二十八万美元

That would be one million two hundred eighty thousand dollars.

就是二十八天跟三十一天差三天吧

It's just that twenty-eight days is three days less than thirty-one days, right?

工资就差了

The salary is just lacking.

一千多万

More than ten million.

他是真正与时间做朋友的

He is truly a friend of time.

这个机器人

This robot

耽搁的他恰恰是时间是他的敌人

The delay he faced was precisely that time was his enemy.

对

Yes.

一旦那个机器做出来

Once that machine is made.

他就很快的贬值

He depreciated very quickly.

但是整个的机器人就领长那机器

But the entire robot has that machine as its leader.

他是与时间做朋友的

He is a friend of time.

这个物种的快速进化

The rapid evolution of this species.

会总有一天

There will always be a day.

把我们和他的关系变得非常的非常的微妙

It makes our relationship with him very, very delicate.

当然也可以说非常的紧张

Of course, it can also be said that it is very tense.

这个事情

This matter.

就老吴你有没有感觉

Regarding Old Wu, do you have any feelings about it?

今天我们往前看十年和往后十年呢

Today we look forward ten years and back ten years.

是不一样的

It's not the same.

这就像二十八天的前五天和二十八天的后五天

This is like the first five days of twenty-eight days and the last five days of twenty-eight days.

怎么一样呢

How is it the same?

我们觉得现在是这样子的

We feel that it is like this now.

就是说也许我们有机会能见到一个五千年未见的真正的大变局

This means that maybe we have the opportunity to witness a true major transformation that has not been seen in five thousand years.

这个变局就是我们能目睹

This change is something we can witness.

能目睹

Can witness

人真正的被系统或者被机器挤到一个很小很小的角落

People are truly squeezed into a very small corner by the system or by machines.

就像没确实像甚至只要挤到地底下去生存

It's just like not really being able to survive unless you squeeze underground.

这个事情以前的我们在看电影都看过

We've seen this thing before when we were watching movies.

但是有没有想过这个事情可能就发生在我们这一辈人身上

But have you ever considered that this could happen to our generation?

未来五年十年里面

In the next five to ten years.

最近的好互联网公司

Recent good Internet companies.

我看年红啊

I see the New Year's red.

那个马化腾

That Ma Huateng.

他们都让自己的员工读那个极点宁静嘛

They all have their employees read that book "Extreme Calm."

对

Correct.

就那那那那本书嘛

It's that book, you know.

对

Yes.

那个就是逆转的那一那一那一刻

That is the moment of reversal.

或者说就是

Or rather, it can be said that...

实质性改变的

Substantial change.

就是显而易见的能改变的那个东西

It is the thing that can obviously be changed.

一旦出现的时候

When it occurs.

那再往后

Then further on

这就完全是不一样了

This is entirely different.

比如说啊

For example,

我就不讲到那个就是欧洲和中国的竞争啊

I'm not going to talk about the competition between Europe and China.

他们有很多的流程

They have a lot of processes.

很多的工艺

Many crafts.

它是非专利的

It is non-patented.

因为那些东西没有明确的指标和数字啊

Because those things do not have clear indicators and numbers.

你是你是很难申请专利的

It is very difficult for you to apply for a patent.

但是恰恰是他产品的竞争力之所在

But that is precisely where the competitiveness of his product lies.

别的不说就说汽车吧

Let's not talk about anything else, let's talk about cars.

就国产的我们国产的汽车和他们原产的那个汽车之间的那个差别

The difference between the domestically produced cars and the cars produced in their original country.

其实是很大的

Actually, it's very big.

连关门那个声音听的都不一样

Even the sound of closing the door is different.

那个业内人士给我介绍

That industry insider introduced me.

就是说其实差别就在于他们这些厂啊

That means the difference actually lies in these factories.

德国派来的那些工人的数量的多少

The number of workers sent by Germany.

决定了他在国产化的产品的那个质量

Decided the quality of his domestically produced products.

那种东西叫know how

That kind of thing is called know-how.

就是说他不是know why

It means he doesn't know why.

不是know what

Not know what.

know how就是说

"Know-how" means expertise or practical knowledge in a particular area.

我只知道怎么做

I only know how to do it.

但你问我为什么要这么做

But you ask me why I want to do this.

我不知道这些老工人往往是这样的啊

I didn’t know that these old workers are often like this.

不能够编码的不可能明确陈述的那些知识

Knowledge that cannot be encoded cannot be explicitly stated.

他不是专利

He is not a patent.

但是他呢

But what about him?

他是一个核心的能力

He is a core capability.

核心的知识和竞争力

Core knowledge and competitiveness

这些知识是由什么来的呢

Where do these pieces of knowledge come from?

他是在时间里头沉淀出来的

He is a product that has been refined over time.

也可以叫时间的玫瑰

It can also be called the rose of time.

机器这个事情就这样是吗

Is that how machines are?

以前你曾经讲到

You once mentioned.

如果对一个脑中医

If it’s about a brain doctor.

或者一批脑中医

Or a group of brain traditional Chinese medicine practitioners.

对他们的药方进行这个进化式的采集

Conduct this evolutionary collection of their prescriptions.

然后发研发大数据的这种研究以后

Then after the research and development of big data.

他们很快的把你这个人的开放的特点

They quickly highlight your open personality traits.

连你自己都不知道的

Even you don't know.

对那些东西

Regarding those things.

他能够抽抽出来

He is able to take it out.

对如果这个量足够的大

If this quantity is large enough.

研究的时间的跨度足够的长

The duration of the research is long enough.

不仅是一个人

Not just one person.

他研究很多的人

He studies many people.

最后他得出来的那个东西

The final thing he came up with.

也是一种隐性知识啊

It's also a form of implicit knowledge.

比如说大数据

For example, big data.

他也包含一种隐性知识啊

He also contains a kind of implicit knowledge.

为什么这么讲呢

Why do you say that?

就是说

That is to say.

比如在你的服务器里头

For example, in your server.

就一个做搜索业务的公司

Just a company that does search business.

他是不懂医学的

He does not understand medicine.

更不懂什么流行病学

Even less understanding of what epidemiology is.

但是由于这个他的大量的

But because of this, his large amount of...

每天有大量的那种搜索行为

Every day, there are a large number of such search behaviors.

他就能够从某些词的搜索里头

He can derive from the search for certain words.

就能发现某种流行病的这个预兆

You can discover the sign of a certain epidemic.

他能准确的预测

He can make accurate predictions.

两周以后

Two weeks later.

有可能是一个流感包

It could be a flu package.

要爆发

To erupt.

他从这些

He is from these.

这就是一个

This is one.

也是一种隐性知识啊

It's also a form of implicit knowledge.

引到他自己都不知道

Leading to a point he himself is unaware of.

他是从这个里头

He is from this inside.

不知道怎么就发酵出来的一种知识

A kind of knowledge that somehow fermented.

第二代机器

Second generation machine

就智能化机器

Concerning intelligent machines.

灵长类机器

Primate machines

他处理数据的能力

His ability to handle data.

是远远大于我们人类的那种处理能力的

It is a processing capability far greater than that of humans.

关键是他不用睡觉

The key is that he doesn't need to sleep.

你知道吗

Do you know?

他没有情绪啊

He has no emotions.

我们有时候那个领导骂你几句

Sometimes our leader scolds you a few times.

你的工作效率就会大大降低

Your work efficiency will be greatly reduced.

一下都是想着怎么去写辞职信了

It's all about figuring out how to write a resignation letter now.

他又不太可能写辞职信

He is unlikely to write a resignation letter.

24小时的这种工作

24-hour work like this

你会发现好

You will find it good.

现在大量的职业正在面临一个巨大的转型

A large number of professions are currently facing a significant transformation.

比如说

For example.

以前呢

In the past.

你觉得你是一个美甲师

Do you think you are a nail technician?

但是现在这种新的欧托的业态

But now this new format of Otto

令到培养

Make it cultivate

并且创造一个有巨大生产力的美甲师

And create a nail technician with great productivity.

变得不是那么困难了

It has become less difficult.

他会告诉你怎么样去沟通

He will tell you how to communicate.

去怎么样去做流程

How to go about doing the process.

怎么去改造等等等等

How to transform, etc. etc. etc.

然后呢

And then?

就把一些新人迅速变成是一个美甲师

It quickly turns some newcomers into nail technicians.

而且给他创造创造客户

And create customers for him.

工业机器人

Industrial robot

他现在还是比较笨拙的了

He is still quite clumsy now.

如果按一年半一年半那么算下去

If we calculate it as one and a half years, one and a half years.

比如说六年之后

For example, six years later.

我相信相信他很可怕

I believe that believing in him is very scary.

因为他现在可以干什么呢

Because what can he do now?

他可以在这个鼠标啊

He can use this mouse.

在这个鼠标上画那种个性化的图案

Draw personalized patterns on this mouse.

那个是很不容易

That is very difficult.

因为鼠标它是曲面

Because the mouse is curved.

嗯

Hmm.

他不是平面的

He is not flat.

嗯

Hmm.

画的这个非常非常漂亮

This painting is very, very beautiful.

他这个图形是根据一些设计师啊

This graphic of his is based on some designers.

嗯

Um.

设计出来的

Designed out.

嗯

Hmm.

然后呢

And then?

他输入到里头

He inputted it inside.

他都是个性化的

He is all personalized.

加一点什么

Add something.

加上谁的名字啊

Whose name should be added?

什么的

What is it?

很灵巧

Very dexterous.

如果六年以后呢

What about six years later?

嗯

Hmm.

他做美甲

He does nail art.

我觉得不成问题的

I think it's not a problem.

对

Yes.

那那个时候美甲师这个行业就会消失

At that time, the nail technician profession will disappear.

甚至理发师

Even the barber.

我觉得就是那种发型师啊

I think it's the kind of hairstylist.

嗯

Hmm.

他完全有可能

He is completely capable of it.

你

You

投身到一个像CT一样的机器里面

Dive into a machine like a CT scanner.

之前你在电脑上设定你的发型是吧

You set your hairstyle on the computer before, right?

不

No.

他把你的脸型头型

He has your face shape and head shape.

你的脸型

Your face shape.

你的个人的气质

Your personal temperament.

你的各种数据进行充分的挖掘以后

After fully mining your various data.

给你三个建议

Here are three suggestions for you.

我给你三个建议

I have three suggestions for you.

你就那一挑

You just picked that one.

挑了

picked out

当然你也可以说你那时候都不需要那个什么鼠标鼠标直直点点

Of course, you could also say that at that time you didn't need that mouse to click around.

你就告诉他

Just tell him.

按照第三个给我再稍稍短一点点啊

Make it a little shorter than the third one.

他马上就给你改改

He'll change it for you right away.

最后呢

In the end?

嗯

Well.

最后敲定以后

Final confirmation afterwards.

而且会展示的是一个3D的啊

And it will showcase a 3D one.

就是这个这个这个头型啊

It's this this this hairstyle.

可以转360度的旋转

Can rotate 360 degrees.

让你看

Let me show you.

我们今天讨论的问题就是

The issue we are discussing today is

当这些东西都在发展出来的时候

When all these things are being developed.

一批一批的人将会失业

Groups of people will lose their jobs.

各种人都会失业

All kinds of people will be unemployed.

比如说保险公司的精算师这个行业

For example, the profession of an actuary in an insurance company.

慢慢慢慢现在现在失业了

Slowly, slowly, now now I'm unemployed.

因为你精算

Because you are calculating.

你根本没有办法跟现在大数据时代的这种

You simply have no way to compete with this current era of big data.

瞬间出现的随时的这种数据相对比

This type of instantaneous data that appears at any time in comparison.

我精算了这个消失呢

I calculated this disappearance.

还是要晚一点

It still needs to be a little later.

因为精算是做建模的

Because actuarial science involves modeling.

他是在建模

He is modeling.

就是说

That is to say.

他是在在某种程度上

He is to some extent.

他是在为计算机在制造这个

He is making this for computers.

就是不一定不一定了

It's just not necessarily certain.

我这个我们以后再再讨论

I will discuss this again with you later.

我说啊

I said ah.

就是说但终究有一天

That is to say, but ultimately one day.

因为现在的计算机

Because the current computers

他还是需要你帮他去干什么东西

He still needs you to help him do something.

有一天他就自己就会自己打理了

One day he will be able to manage it by himself.

对

Correct.

就是说这个理发师可以为自己理发了

That means this barber can cut his own hair.

那那就很可怕

That's very scary.

对

Correct.

所以我们今天讲的就是说

So what we are talking about today is...

人类的越来越多的工作

An increasing amount of work for humanity.

嗯

Hmm.

一步一步一步一步的都在被取代的时候

When everything is being replaced step by step.

这么多的人都没没有事干

So many people have nothing to do.

那怎么办

What should we do then?

这多少需要为我们今天的每一位听众带来一个问题

This inevitably raises a question for each of our listeners today.

这个问题就是你现在要为可能的在五年以后

This question is what you need to consider for the possibilities five years from now.

你的失业现在要做什么

What do you plan to do about your unemployment now?

写了一段推荐语啊

I wrote a recommendation.

我说这个新机器既是人类的帮手

I said this new machine is both a helper to humanity.

也是人类的对手

Also a rival of humanity.

人类将日益面临与新机器的残酷竞争

Humans will increasingly face brutal competition with new machines.

凭借劳动力成本

By relying on labor cost.

优势而赢得比较优势的国家

Countries that gain comparative advantages through their strengths.

比如说就像中国和印度可能会陷入到相对的劣势劣势当中

For example, China and India might fall into a relative disadvantage.

个人和国家或许竞争优势的唯一途径是如何以四两拨千斤的太极手法赢得竞争

The only way for individuals and countries to have a competitive advantage may be how to win competition using the Tai Chi technique of leveraging four ounces to move a thousand pounds.

做只有人能做的事

Do things that only humans can do.

干机器自叹力不胜任的活

The machine laments that it is unable to handle the task.

找到最不易被机器多掉饭碗的职业

Find the profession that is least likely to be replaced by machines.

这是这个美

This is the beauty.

逆新世界里头的国家企业个人竞争战略的基点

The foundation of competitive strategies for national enterprises and individuals in the reverse new world.

最可怕的事情是我现在也想不到有什么事情是不能够被机器取代的

The most terrifying thing is that I can't think of anything now that cannot be replaced by machines.

不过呢

However,

根据一些我们的过往的经验和智慧和当人被逼到绝处的时候

Based on some of our past experiences and wisdom, when a person is pushed to the limit.

也许他就能发展出一种他之前想都不能想到的能力了

Perhaps he will develop a capability that he couldn't even imagine before.

人可能又会进化出一种新的能力

Humans may evolve a new ability again.

也许我们可以未来看得到

Maybe we can see it in the future.

感谢大家收听今天的动物相对论

Thank you all for listening to today's Animal Relativity.

我们下一期同一时间再见

See you at the same time next issue.

拜拜

Goodbye.