2013.07.30Part3[金三角鴉片大王羅星漢,中國歷代政治制度:秦之統一]
Shiu Shiu
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2013.07.30Part3[金三角鴉片大王羅星漢,中國歷代政治制度:秦之統一]
大陸很多地方都破產了
Many places on the mainland have gone bankrupt.
我認識東莞的鎮
I know the town of Dongguan.
負債和稅收入完全不成比例
Debt and tax revenue are completely disproportionate.
是永遠還不到的
It is something that can never be reached.
如果不借新債的話
If new debt is not borrowed.
大陸現在地方政府的債項
The current local government debt in the mainland.
有73%是來自銀行
73% come from banks.
而其他向人民舉債的只是佔百分之十幾
And those who borrow from the people account for only a little over ten percent.
所以你看到現在大陸的銀行體系
So you can see the current banking system in mainland China.
幾乎是全部虧空了
Almost all lost.
所以前一陣子是沒有現金的
So there was no cash a while ago.
要用米來吸引人民入錢
Use rice to attract people to invest money.
這個情況聽起來很差
This situation sounds very bad.
因為90年代中期
Because of the mid-1990s.
94、95年代銀行的壞賤危機
The banking bad debt crisis of the 1990s.
當時都四至五成
At that time, it was four to five percent.
如果趙博講到七成以上
If Zhao Bo speaks about over 70%.
是非常非常之差
It is extremely poor.
很嚴重
Very serious.
所以最搞笑的是
So the funniest thing is
人們嘲笑美國的民主會導致破產
People mock that American democracy will lead to bankruptcy.
大陸在今天的法例上
The mainland in today's legislation.
是沒有地方政府破產法的
There is no law for the bankruptcy of local governments.
所以他們只能夠拉長
So they can only stretch it out.
到所謂崩潰的時期
To the so-called collapse period.
就直接有革命出現
A revolution just emerged.
這個是
This is
當然我星期四會再詳細地分析
Of course, I will analyze it in detail again on Thursday.
底特律破產的問題
The issue of Detroit's bankruptcy.
但是基本上幾個重大元素
But basically a few major elements.
第一就是美國汽車在GDP的比率
The first is the ratio of American cars in GDP.
你看到它由5%跌到現在只有2.5%
You saw it drop from 5% to only 2.5% now.
而三大汽車公司當日都是底特律的
The three major automobile companies were all from Detroit that day.
總部都是底特律的
The headquarters are all in Detroit.
今天仍然都是
Today is still the same.
福特和這個
Ford and this
底特律的人口最高那一刻
The moment when Detroit's population was at its peak.
在五幾年的時候
In the early 1950s.
大概180萬左右
Around 1.8 million.
今天就跌至70萬
Today it dropped to 700,000.
為什麼會全面崩潰呢
Why is there a complete collapse?
如果你用經濟學來解釋
If you explain it using economics.
一件事很簡單
One thing is very simple.
當你的經濟在衰退的那一刻
At the moment your economy is in recession.
它是應該調整的
It should be adjusted.
它應該調整的
It should be adjusted.
你不能夠調整
You cannot adjust.
於是就走進了一個惡性循環
Thus, they fell into a vicious cycle.
不停向下參
Continuously going down to participate.
這是第一
This is the first.
人才不夠不能夠轉其他行業
A lack of talent means we cannot switch to other industries.
經濟的自由度不夠
The level of economic freedom is insufficient.
而當然很大問題就是
And of course, a big problem is that...
工會的勢力令到那個行業雖微
The influence of the union has caused that industry to be insignificant.
但是工資依然高企
However, wages remain high.
尤其是搞到美國三大汽車公司
Especially affecting the three major American car companies.
都幾乎破產那樣東西
It's almost like going bankrupt.
你知不知道是什麼
Do you know what it is?
就是那個醫療保險
It's that health insurance.
還有退休保險
There is also retirement insurance.
當時是給人家的醫療和工會
At that time, it was for the healthcare and labor unions of others.
你做生意你不可以不答應工會的
In business, you cannot disregard the union's agreements.
就劫到這個醫療保險
Just got this health insurance.
尤其是醫療保險
Especially healthcare insurance.
是很嚴重
It's very serious.
是想不到那些人那麼長命
I didn't expect those people to live such long lives.
還有醫療是貴成這樣的
Medical care is becoming this expensive.
現在抵特率還是百分之三十幾是這些利益
The current discount rate is still over thirty percent, which is due to these benefits.
所以為什麼法院又不能夠給他破產呢
So why can't the court declare him bankrupt?
就因為法律規定這些東西是不可以割的
Just because the law stipulates that these things cannot be cut.
你不是破產就可以賴賬不給這些東西
Just because you are not bankrupt doesn't mean you can default and not pay for these things.
這些利益
These benefits
因為人家供了
Because they provided it.
supposedly是
supposedly is
還有抵特率其中一個人口銳減
There is also a significant decrease in the population of one of the regions with a high discount rate.
一個重點
A key point.
就是他的種族和族群鬥爭太厲害了
It's just that the ethnic and racial struggles are too intense.
因為他本身是黑人第一個
Because he is the first black person himself.
就是最早期
It is the earliest stage.
所謂黑人民權運動的城市
The so-called city of the Black civil rights movement.
結果有部分黑人就進來之後
As a result, some Black individuals came in after that.
白人就很生氣
White people are very angry.
就跑掉了很多人
Many people just ran away.
這些當他越來越
These are when he becomes more and more.
當他一直跌
When he keeps falling.
怎樣是research circle呢
What is a research circle?
他是不是越來越窮
Isn't he getting poorer and poorer?
窮就比不起
Being poor means you can't compete.
再跑掉
Run away again.
於是就抽多些稅
So they imposed more taxes.
市政做得差
The municipal government is performing poorly.
那麼就更多有錢人跑掉
Then more rich people will run away.
那麼一路滾下山的
Then it rolled down the mountain all the way.
而且沒有新移民人口進去
Moreover, there are no new immigrants entering.
所以搞到他是沒有創造力
So it turns out he has no creativity.
三大汽車廠在那裡
Where are the three major car manufacturers?
扯不到年輕人進去
It can't attract young people to get involved.
結果又導致生產力有在下降
As a result, productivity has also declined.
但是有個好消息
But there is good news.
就是
Just.
應該特區政府
The Special Administrative Region government should.
去買了抵特率博物館回來
Went to buy and came back from the discount museum.
抵特率你知道嗎
Do you know about the resistance rate?
為什麼呢
Why is that?
抵特率博物館
Resistance Rate Museum
現在Christie估值10億美金而已
Christie's is currently valued at only 1 billion US dollars.
抵買以香港這麼有錢
Why is it so affordable in Hong Kong when it's so wealthy?
放在西九
Put it in West Kowloon.
他只有一幅畫宴值這麼多錢
He only has one painting worth so much money.
就是繁高
It is繁高.
割耳自畫像
Self-Portrait with Ear Cut Off
那不爭罪了
Then it won't be a crime to dispute.
買了抵特率活塞
Bought a discount rate piston.
整個博物館買回來
Buy the entire museum back.
你知道嗎
Do you know?
以前有Grand Hill打得不錯
Previously, Grand Hill played quite well.
抵特的情況
The situation of resisting the special.
有點像香港
A bit like Hong Kong.
太依靠是單一的產業
Too reliant is a single industry.
人口老化得太厲害了
The aging population is becoming too serious.
大陸是不是應該買了抵特率回來呢?
Shouldn't the mainland have bought back the discount rate?
整座城買回來
Buy back the entire city.
而且是戰略效益
Moreover, it is a strategic benefit.
因為他負債190億
Because he is 19 billion in debt.
很多錢
A lot of money.
他的資金缺口是幾十億美金
His funding gap is several billion dollars.
你整個城買回來
You bought the entire city back.
這個是很厲害的
This is very impressive.
我也想到
I also thought of that.
香港可以買
Can be bought in Hong Kong.
可以在那邊建公屋
Public housing can be built there.
搬人去那邊殖民
Move people to colonize over there.
這個合乎陳文老師的說法
This is in accordance with Teacher Chen Wen's statement.
賣不起多機票
Can't afford to buy multiple tickets.
政府一筆過給他們
The government gave them a lump sum.
不用回來
No need to come back.
所以這個故事教訓什麼呢?
So what lesson does this story teach?
現在為什麼這麼久都不破產
Why haven't they gone bankrupt after such a long time?
大陸和日本有什麼不同?
What are the differences between the mainland and Japan?
大陸日本的資本帳是對外開放的
The capital account of mainland Japan is open to the outside.
大陸就不是
The mainland is not.
如果大陸學了日本
If the mainland learned from Japan.
資本帳對外開放肯定七七仆街
The capital account opening is definitely going to be a disaster.
但如果你資本帳不對外開放
But if you do not open your capital account to the outside.
人民幣就不可能成為國際的貨幣
The renminbi cannot become an international currency.
所以大陸在這個資本帳開不開放
So the mainland is considering whether to open up this capital account.
其實是大陸最需要去想的問題
It is actually a question that mainland China needs to think about the most.
現在不能開放的
It cannot be opened now.
現在開始強勢
Starting strong now.
開始不開放的
Not open at the beginning.
現在很多人拿錢走
Many people are taking money away now.
大陸的錢對外匯是沒得對的
The money from the mainland cannot be exchanged for foreign currency.
大陸的外匯儲備大概是三萬多億美金
The mainland's foreign exchange reserves are approximately over 3 trillion U.S. dollars.
即是十八九萬億人民幣
That is about eighteen to nineteen trillion yuan.
今天的人民幣總量是一百一十幾萬億
Today's total amount of renminbi is over one hundred ten trillion.
拿五分之一來對就已經掛掉了
Taking one-fifth and using it directly would already be fatal.
所以超級對通脹的問題真的很難解決
So it's really difficult to solve the problem of inflation.
我們想到香港的將來
We think about the future of Hong Kong.
底特律和香港一樣都是單一化
Detroit is similar to Hong Kong in that both are unified.
香港是靠金融業
Hong Kong relies on the financial industry.
底特律主要靠汽車工業
Detroit mainly relies on the automotive industry.
在二次世界大戰的時候底特律開始崛興
Detroit began to rise during World War II.
當時他是一個美裕的
At that time, he was a wealthy person.
就叫做Arsenal of Democracy
It's called the Arsenal of Democracy.
兵工廠來的
From the armory.
Arsenal來的
From Arsenal.
但今天仍然不能轉型
But today it still cannot transform.
所以就很嚴重
So it's very serious.
和香港一樣
Like Hong Kong.
因為manufacturing下跌
Due to the decline in manufacturing.
經濟最發達的
the most economically developed
都是manufacturing
It’s all manufacturing.
尤其是heavy industry
Especially heavy industry.
全世界都是下跌的
The whole world is declining.
但他不懂得轉型去新領域
But he doesn't understand how to transition to new fields.
你說一下羅新漢
Can you talk about Luo Xinhanyu?
羅新漢最近在東南亞有什麼大事發生
What major events have occurred in Southeast Asia recently?
除了柬埔寨的國會選舉之外
Apart from the parliamentary elections in Cambodia
一件事大家都比較少留意
A matter that everyone pays less attention to.
我見報章都是甚少賣
I see that newspapers are rarely sold.
不知有沒有賣
I don't know if they are selling it.
曾經被人稱為海洛英教父
Once referred to as the godfather of heroin.
鴉片將軍
Opium General
聽到名字都很興奮
Just hearing the name makes me very excited.
金三角的Javid人
The Javid people of the Golden Triangle.
羅新漢在七月初
Luo Xinhai in early July.
79歲就逝世了
Passed away at the age of 79.
提起金三角
Mention the Golden Triangle.
金三角那些獨囂
The 独囂 of the Golden Triangle.
香港以前蕭先生拍了一套閉號
Mr. Xiao filmed a closed session in Hong Kong before.
金三角有羅新漢 彭嘉昇 昆沙
The Golden Triangle has Luo XinhAN, Peng Jiasheng, and Kunsha.
為什麼我特別想說羅新漢
Why do I particularly want to mention Luo Xinhàn?
因為無論是昆沙或者彭嘉昇
Because whether it is Kunsha or Peng Jiasheng.
都是被羅新漢打敗
All were defeated by Luo Xinh'an.
昆沙後來投降給羅新漢
Kunsha later surrendered to Luo Xinhan.
彭嘉昇就是這位在緬甸的共產黨人士
Peng Jiasheng is the communist figure in Myanmar.
都是曾經被羅新漢打到一敗塗地
They were all once defeated and left in ruins by Luo Xinhàn.
這位羅新漢其實有點像
This Luo Xinhàn is actually a bit like...
緬甸的李嘉誠
The Li Ka-shing of Myanmar.
因為他的公司Acerworld
Because his company is Acerworld.
亞洲世界
Asian World
到現在為止
So far.
其實是控制了緬甸的海陸空
In fact, it has controlled Myanmar's land, sea, and air.
緬甸的仰光國際機場
Yangon International Airport in Myanmar
很多港口 公路 甚至是
Many ports, highways, and even...
很多基建
Many infrastructure projects.
中國和緬甸的輸油管
China and Myanmar's oil pipeline
甚至是中國和緬甸的三大建設
Even the three major constructions between China and Myanmar.
之前被人
Previously been someone
Ban了一個
Ban one.
蜜蟲的
Honey bee's
水力發電站
Hydroelectric power station
都是他在亞洲世界去搞的
It was all him doing it in the Asian world.
為什麼這位羅新漢
Why is this Luo Xinhàn?
這個夠奇跡了吧
This is enough of a miracle, right?
在七幾年的一刻是這樣的
At that moment in the '70s, it was like this.
七幾年以前他就叫做
He was called that many years ago.
鴉片大王
Opium King
如果有時間我再講個歷史給你聽
If I have time, I'll tell you another history.
Anyway
无论如何
就是他
It's him.
二十六軍
Twenty-sixth Army
九十三師
Ninety-Third Division
少年兵
Youth soldiers
就訓練出來的 軍事學院訓練出來的
It was trained by a military academy.
是中國
It is China.
李尼餘程萬的殘軍
Li Niyu's remnants of the army of Wan.
在泰國訓練出來的
Trained in Thailand.
這個人是果敢的漢人 但他父親已經有錢了
This person is a courageous Han Chinese, but his father is already wealthy.
好了
Alright.
他就大陸
He is from the mainland.
被全世界通緝
Wanted by the whole world
七四年在泰國被人拘捕了
In 1974, I was arrested in Thailand.
照計你反那麼多毒又殺人
According to the plan, you have been poisoning so many people and committing murder.
這些當然是很厲害的 打仗他
These are certainly impressive in battle.
結果打走了國民黨殘軍
As a result, the remnants of the Kuomintang were driven away.
又吞併了楊家的勢力
The power of the Yang family has been swallowed up again.
在泰國被拘捕了
Arrested in Thailand.
坐牢六年就放出來了
He was released after serving six years in prison.
他真的是做生意
He really is doing business.
發一大疊是緬甸首富
Sending a large stack is the richest person in Myanmar.
你有沒有一個這樣的人呢
Do you have someone like this?
鴉片獨削的心態 怎麼可以做生意呢
How can one do business with an attitude of isolated selfishness?
能文能武 因為當年對廣州國民黨
Able in both literature and martial arts, because of the Nationalist Party in Guangzhou back in the day.
整個國民黨的鴉片生意全部搶了
The entire Kuomintang's opium business was all seized.
而當時的軍政府 緬甸軍政府黎溫
At that time, the military government, the Myanmar military government led by Min Aung Hlaing.
給了鴉片生意 海洛英給他搞
Gave him the opium business, and heroin was handled by him.
甚至
even
黎溫下台之後 單稅上台
After Li Wen stepped down, the single tax took over.
官商 OK 單稅女婿結婚
Official business ok, single tax son-in-law getting married.
都要找這位羅昇翰負責主辦婚禮
Everyone needs to find this person, Luo Shenghan, to be in charge of organizing the wedding.
你可以看到這位首富非常非常
You can see that this billionaire is very, very
他燒光了 其實是果敢 燒光了果敢的鴉片
He burned it all, actually it was the Opium of Kokang that he burned.
還要其他地區都燒 是反吸毒
Other regions also need to be burned, it's anti-drug.
還要派種子鼓勵農民轉型 種其他東西
We also need to send seeds to encourage farmers to transition and grow other crops.
所以你看到羅昇翰和趙博有相似 有教書
So you see that Luo Shenghan and Zhao Bo are similar; they both teach.
因為他當時在1960年代末 緬甸排華
Because he was involved in the anti-Chinese sentiment in Myanmar in the late 1960s.
羅昇翰就建了一些華文學校 推廣中國的語言
Luo Shenghan established some Chinese language schools to promote the Chinese language.
他很醒目
He is very eye-catching.
教這些不是叫華文 是叫果敢文
Teaching these is not called Chinese, it is called Guogan language.
緬甸政府不單止不刪除你的華文學校
The Myanmar government not only did not close your Chinese language school.
還要鼓勵你建多一些學校
I also encourage you to build more schools.
所以
So
羅昇翰在東南亞
Luo Shenghan in Southeast Asia.
差不多第一位
Almost the first place.
去建一些華文學校 去推廣華語
Go build some Chinese language schools to promote the Chinese language.
是
Yes.
大家也聽過 重探到泰北的孤軍的故事
Everyone has heard the story of the lone soldier re-encountering in northern Thailand.
泰國的
Thailand's
泰北緬北的國民黨孤軍是兩支軍隊
The Kuomintang's isolated forces in northern Thailand and northern Myanmar are two separate armies.
第一支就是里尼的第六軍
The first one is the sixth army of Lini.
以及愚情萬的
And the foolish affection of ten thousand.
第29軍
29th Army
最近我看這個蔣介石日記
Recently I read this diary of Chiang Kai-shek.
也有記載
Also recorded.
當時五幾年的時期
During the period of the 1950s.
蔣介石是想空降到四川
Chiang Kai-shek wanted to parachute into Sichuan.
連同這個緬北的孤軍
Along with this lone army from northern Myanmar.
一齊來策反雲南和四川獨立
Let's work together to incite the independence of Yunnan and Sichuan.
打進去的 全軍打進去的
All troops go in.
這兩支軍隊是怎樣的
What are these two armies like?
他們當時就在雲南
They were in Yunnan at that time.
雲南蔣介石就標了龍雲心
In Yunnan, Chiang Kai-shek marked Long Yun's heart.
龍雲呢
Where is Longyun?
就是雲南王
It's the King of Yunnan.
但是他有個二父弟
But he has a half-brother.
就是
Just is.
叫
Call.
盧漢
Lu Han
盧漢就請了國民黨軍官去吃飯
Lu Han invited the Nationalist Army officers to dinner.
就抓了他們 包括了里尼 愚情萬
Just caught them, including Lini and Yuqing Wan.
其實
Actually
盧漢的軍隊
Lu Han's army
是很少的 你知不知道
It's very rare, do you know?
那里尼 愚情萬的軍隊就進攻這個昆明
There, the foolish army is attacking Kunming.
那麼
Then
里尼 愚情萬就跟盧漢講
Rini, the foolish feelings are just like what I told Luhan.
你放他們出去 我們就叫他們不要打
If you let them out, we will tell them not to fight.
你知不知道
Do you know?
放他們出去
Let them out.
里尼就想
Rini just thought.
繼續打
Keep hitting.
愚情萬不肯打
"I would never be willing to break my foolish sentiment."
安拿了他對
Anna got it right.
盧漢的認識 還在考慮起義
Lu Han's understanding is still considering the uprising.
考慮起義
Consider rebellion
結果這兩隊軍隊的殘兵就越過了十萬大山
As a result, the remnants of the two armies crossed the Ten Thousand Great Mountains.
就進入了這個太北
It has just entered this Taibei.
好了 兩個人就不同了
Alright, the two people are different now.
因為他這樣考慮過 愚情萬呢
Because he has considered it this way, foolish feelings are bound to arise.
是不敢
Isn't it afraid?
去台灣的
Going to Taiwan.
是在香港死的
Died in Hong Kong.
1955年
1955年 translates to "Year 1955."
是國民黨派特務打死愚情萬
It was an agent sent by the Kuomintang that killed Yu Qingwan.
而他的女兒就是余沙尼
And his daughter is Yushan Ni.
聽過肇事的言聲
Heard the voice of the perpetrator.
哦
Oh.
你沒聽過嗎
Haven't you heard?
你也沒聽過余沙尼
You haven't heard of Yushan either.
網友有沒有聽過余沙尼
Have netizens heard of Yu Shani?
他袁沙央你 我知道
He Yuan Sha Yang, I know you.
那里尼呢 後來就回到台灣了
Then you went back to Taiwan.
余沙尼70多歲才死
Yushan Ni died in his 70s.
所以余沙尼是短命的
So Yushani is short-lived.
其實就是在香港
Actually, it is in Hong Kong.
被人家用槍打死的
Shot dead by someone.
應該是國民黨特務
It should be the Kuomintang spies.
袁沙尼我記住
I remember Yuan Shani.
那你還有沒有什麼要補充
Do you have anything else to add?
我也想說
I also want to say.
一個人
One person
由一個軍人
By a soldier.
能文能武又可以教書
Able in both literature and martial arts, and can also teach.
兼且做生意
Also doing business.
無論是偏門正門都那麼強勁
No matter whether it's the side door or the front door, they're both so strong.
我可以
I can.
沙盧
Shalu
不過說起鴉片
Speaking of opium,
現在所謂金三角
The so-called Golden Triangle now.
已經不再成為
No longer becoming.
鴉片的一個
An opium.
主要集中地
Main concentration area
現在比伊朗那邊
Now compared to Iran.
金新月那邊
Over there by the Golden Crescent.
取而代之
Take the place of.
哥倫比亞還頂到
Colombia is still at the top.
最主要原因是因為現在的
The main reason is because of the current...
經濟轉型
Economic transformation
現在那些人是不吃鴉片的
Now those people do not smoke opium.
副產品開樂英
By-product Ka Le Ying
現在是吃那些
What are we eating now?
藥物 K仔那些
Medications like K.
還有你太貴了
And you are too expensive.
所以不能夠普及化
Therefore, it cannot be popularized.
K仔那些普及化
The popularization of K products.
但cocaine還是很多人買的
But many people still buy cocaine.
還是可以的
It’s still okay.
他去到有些地方
He went to some places.
主要是供應在美國
Mainly supplied in the United States.
其實主力是供應在美國的cocaine
The main supply is cocaine provided in the United States.
所以如果美國
So if the United States
主要是來自南美洲的
Mainly from South America.
所以亞洲的市場是崩潰的
So the Asian market is collapsing.
所以早年那些緬甸
So in the early years, those in Myanmar...
泰北的政府都是
The northern government of Thailand is all...
重點是改革的
The key point is reform.
其實羅昇漢有一招
Actually, Luo Shenghan has a move.
他自己提煉這些cocaine
He extracts the cocaine himself.
再找人混合
Find someone else to mix.
再找人賣
Find someone else to sell.
一條龍服務
One-stop service.
結果那些中間人想吃水都吃不到
As a result, those intermediaries can't even get a sip of water.
這傢伙做生意頭腦
This guy has a business mind.
真的非常之厲害
Really impressive.
余沙利
Yushali
余沙利大家
Yushali everyone
李漢長曾經說他是最靚的鹽星
Li Hanchang once said he is the most beautiful salt star.
你沒有幫他寫一個劇本嗎
Didn't you help him write a script?
沒有沒有
No, no.
他再早一點
He is a little earlier.
余沙利
Yu Shali
OK
OK
不是黃沙利不是大家姐
It's not Huang Sha Li, and it's not the eldest sister.
是余沙利
It is Yushali.
余沙利
Yushali
我再說說這個
Let me talk about this again.
這個
This
我想說什麼
I want to say something.
我忘記了
I forgot.
不是余沙利
It is not Yushali.
這個
This one.
你說說秦國
Tell me about the Qin State.
我們有一個jingle先
We have a jingle first.
小肉蛋
Little meat egg
jingle麻煩
Jingle trouble.
jingle
jingle
監股資金
Supervisory capital.
中國歷代政制得失
The Gains and Losses of Political Systems in China Throughout the Dynasties
在中國歷代政制得失開始前
Before the gains and losses of the political systems throughout China's history began.
做一點事務性的宣傳
Do some promotional work.
我逢星期三
I meet on Wednesdays.
晚上的八點至九點有一個
There is one from eight to nine in the evening.
歷史節目
History program
本來我是文學歷史clossover的
Originally, I was a crossover of literature and history.
但是人們只看到我講歷史的部分
But people only see the part where I talk about history.
少一點看文學的部分
Less emphasis on the literary aspect.
節目叫千古風柳
The program is called "Eternal Wind and Willows."
現在是透過點播出的
It is currently being broadcast on demand.
DIMBO TV
DIMBO TV
請大家上去youtube看
Please go to YouTube to watch.
因為始終現在人數都很少
Because there are still very few people now.
好像只有三百多人subscribe
It seems that only a little over three hundred people have subscribed.
要多一點人支持才行
More people need to support it.
還有要宣傳一下
There is also a need to promote it.
如果你們有興趣有網友講其他科
If you are interested, there are netizens discussing other subjects.
都可以聯絡我
You can contact me anytime.
我希望每一科都有些人可以講
I hope there are some people who can speak in every subject.
我那個節目就講歷史
My program talks about history.
上一集就講了諸葛亮
The last episode talked about Zhuge Liang.
下一集即是明天我就會講江東豪傑
The next episode is tomorrow, and I will talk about the heroes of Jiangdong.
很好聽
Sounds great.
江東豪傑
Heroes of Jiangdong
多謝大家支持
Thank you all for your support.
今天我就要講這個
Today I am going to talk about this.
秦國的統一
The unification of the Qin state.
講秦國的統一的時候
When talking about the unification of the Qin state.
最近有一本新的書
Recently, there is a new book.
何炳棣
He Bingdi
我最尊敬的一位學者
The scholar I respect the most.
他去世了
He passed away.
中研院何漢威教授
Professor He Hanwei of Academia Sinica
和他編了一本新書
Co-authored a new book with him.
中國思想制度史的論從
Theoretical Discussion on the History of Chinese Ideological Systems.
裡面也有很多文章
There are many articles inside as well.
是滑時代的
It is the era of sliding.
其中他也有提到秦國的統一
He also mentioned the unification of the Qin state.
但之前我也講了一些
But I also mentioned some things before.
今天我想講
Today I want to talk about...
為什麼秦國能夠統一
Why was the Qin State able to unify?
當然要介紹一個理論
Of course, I need to introduce a theory.
介紹一個理論就是
Introducing a theory is...
之前蕭先生和我們在節目講過的
Mr. Xiao has talked about this with us in the program before.
叫邊綴理論
Called the edge-sorting theory.
這個邊綴理論其實在近年用經濟史的研究
This boundary stitching theory has actually been used in economic history research in recent years.
也講了很多
Also talked a lot.
往往在文明與文明的衝突裡面
Often in the conflict between civilizations.
落後的那個會贏
The one who is behind will win.
勁的那個
That powerful one.
而勁的那個文明雖然被消滅了
Though that powerful civilization was destroyed.
被消滅了政權
The regime was eliminated.
但是他的文明會存在
But his civilization will exist.
而最後文明會令到落後的民族
In the end, civilization will bring about the advancement of backward peoples.
吸收了他的文明
Absorbed his civilization.
而最後創造了輝煌的王朝
And ultimately created a magnificent dynasty.
這個在歷史上有很多
There are many of this in history.
日本學者講了征服王朝這個概念
Japanese scholars discussed the concept of the Conquest Dynasty.
征服王朝就是說
The Conqueror Dynasty means to say.
透過武力在外國的
Through force in foreign countries.
一些少數民族打進來
Some minority groups are coming in.
雖然秦就是所謂的中原民族
Although the Qin is what is known as the Central Plain ethnic group.
但是他也是集署了西方的一些少數民族
But he also gathered some minority ethnic groups from the West.
所以其實他本身也都符合
So he actually meets the criteria himself as well.
少部分
A small portion.
征服王朝的特點
Characteristics of the Conquering Dynasty
但是
But
在他統一的過程裡面
In the process of his unification.
我們必須要處理兩個問題
We need to address two issues.
蕭先生
Mr. Hsiao
第一
First
為什麼秦朝
Why the Qin Dynasty?
這麼快這麼短時間
So fast in such a short time.
秦始皇登基了不久
Emperor Qin Shi Huang ascended the throne not long ago.
十幾年就可以滅掉六國
In just over a decade, it is possible to destroy the six kingdoms.
這是第一個
This is the first one.
歷史上是一個迷你
History is a mini.
因為之前是打了幾百年仗
Because before, we fought for hundreds of years.
是春秋打到戰國打了幾百年
It was the Spring and Autumn period that lasted for several hundred years until the Warring States period.
很大規模的戰爭
Large-scale war
打過很多次
Hit many times.
為什麼秦始皇一燈謎
Why is Qin Shi Huang a riddle?
十幾年可以滅亡
It can be destroyed in more than a decade.
這個是必須我們讀歷史要解決的問題
This is a problem that we must address when studying history.
蕭先生你有沒有補充一點
Mr. Xiao, do you have any additional comments?
如果你以這個
If you use this
整個戰國的前後的爭霸來說
In terms of the competition before and after the entire Warring States period
其實
Actually
到最末期
To the very end.
就是這個
This is it.
只有一個國家是可以
Only one country is possible.
頂得住秦國的
Able to withstand the Qin state.
就是趙國
It is the Zhao State.
兩場大戰
Two World Wars
一場是長平之前
One battle was before Changping.
一場是杭丹之刑
A punishment called the "Hang Dan" punishment.
兩場大戰
Two World Wars
你看回史書是死了幾十萬人
You look back at historical records, and it was hundreds of thousands of people who died.
這個其中一個我們解釋到為什麼戰國晚年
This is one of the reasons we explain why in the late Warring States period.
這麼短時間可以統一
Unity can be achieved in such a short time.
因為戰爭規模是大得很厲害
Because the scale of the war is very huge.
你發覺譬如說大家玩show hand
You notice, for example, everyone is playing show hand.
最初是玩500 100 500
Initially, it was playing 500, 100, 500.
但show show下發覺你大我大你的時候
But when I realized that you are bigger than me, it's a show-off.
大到一萬二萬
As large as twelve thousand or twenty thousand.
一百萬的時期
A period of one million.
你一波是陷家產的
You are a wave of entrapment of family assets.
所以這個是隨著
So this is along with.
交接了幾百年
Handed over for hundreds of years.
他要把籌碼壓得很大
He wants to bet big.
所以在後期的戰爭規模去到四五十萬人一場對戰
So in the later stages of the war, the scale of battles reached four to five hundred thousand people per encounter.
一場會戰
A major battle
如果哪一個輸的話
If anyone loses.
是不同以前那些城邑是幾個城邑打的
It is different from those cities in the past; these are several cities fighting against each other.
那你各是各城 各十五城 各十城
Then each of you has fifteen cities, and each has ten cities.
去到那時候是亡國的
By the time we get there, the country will be gone.
因為一場戰爭輸
Because of losing a war
你死幾十萬人
You killed hundreds of thousands of people.
那些是壯丁
Those are strong men.
你國內的經濟迅速崩潰
Your country's economy is rapidly collapsing.
你要透過女人去耕田
You want to farm through women.
那你迅速崩潰的時期你當然是不能夠守住他嘛
During that time when you quickly fell apart, of course, you couldn't hold onto him.
所以這是第一個我認為
So this is the first one that I think.
戰爭規模大
The scale of the war is large.
導致這麼快統一的一個原因
One reason for the rapid unification.
我要講秦朝為什麼這麼厲害
I want to talk about why the Qin Dynasty was so impressive.
秦國大概是五百萬人
The Qin State probably had around five million people.
他拿出來打仗的
He brought it out to fight.
長平之役和後來徵獄中國
The Battle of Changping and the later penal system in China.
是去到一百萬人
It is to reach one million people.
這個是荒謬的
This is absurd.
五百萬人
Five million people
一百萬人在前線打仗
One million people are fighting on the front lines.
這個有多嚴重呢 你告訴我
How serious is this? You tell me.
打楚國
Attack the State of Chu.
是用到六十萬人的
It is used by six hundred thousand people.
王展帶兵他們有一個特點
Wang Zhan leads the troops, and they have one characteristic.
秦國是全國皆兵
The Qin state had an army composed of the entire nation.
他跟其他國家不同
He is different from other countries.
其他國家很多時候所謂的
Many times that which is called in other countries...
兵力都會留在內圍
The troops will remain in the inner perimeter.
而秦國就全部壓倒了
And the Qin state completely overwhelmed it.
去到外面主要做戰爭
Going outside primarily to make war.
所以就會導致秦國內面的經濟本來就會崩潰
This will lead to the collapse of the economy within the Qin state.
但是他很幸運
But he is very lucky.
他們有建了一個大型的水利系統
They have built a large-scale water conservancy system.
本來
Originally
希望透過大型的水利系統鄭國
Hoping to establish a large-scale water conservancy system in Zhengguo.
拖垮秦朝的經濟
The economic collapse of the Qin Dynasty.
但是他雖然拖垮了一段時間的經濟
But although he has dragged down the economy for a period of time
但實際上導致了後來經濟發達
But in reality, it led to subsequent economic development.
拖遲了 其實長平之役之後
It was delayed, actually after the Battle of Changping.
這個總管管的系統就拖遲了
The system managed by this supervisor has been delayed.
然後到秦始皇
Then to Qin Shi Huang.
親政
Direct governance
就再次發動這個大型的侵略戰爭
Once again launched this large-scale invasion war.
所以成也鄭國敗也鄭國
Thus, the success and failure both lie with the Zheng state.
就是你建了這個大型水利工程
It is you who built this large-scale hydraulic project.
他最初的時候
At the beginning, he.
虛耗了人力
Wasted manpower.
但是到了後來呢
But later on, what happened?
令到他的運輸經濟各方面
Causing his transportation economics in various aspects.
有很強大的支援
There is very strong support.
所以這是第一個
So this is the first one.
其實第二個
Actually the second one.
也是
Also.
陸國自己的內部意志的崩潰
The collapse of the internal will of the country.
為什麼內部意志崩潰呢
Why is the internal will collapsing?
宋朝有一個很出色的文學家
During the Song Dynasty, there was a very outstanding literary figure.
蘇洵寫了一篇文叫《陸國論》
Su Xun wrote an essay called "On the State of Lu."
陸國之項滅
The fall of the Luguo nation.
非兵不善戰不離的
A soldier who is not good at war cannot be separated from it.
必在老秦
Must be in Old Qin
他最重要的原因是因為當秦國一個已經強大了的時期
The most important reason is because it was a time when the Qin state had already become powerful.
陸國是不能夠團結起來的
The countries on land cannot unite.
而導致他們逐一瓦解
resulting in their collapse one by one.
當時是不是有一個說法
Was there a saying at that time?
本來想合縱弱以攻一強
Originally intended to ally the weak to attack the strong.
最後就變成是一強以攻縱弱
In the end, it becomes a strong offense against the weak.
這是早朝自己說的
This is what I said during the morning court.
到了最後這個秦始皇
In the end, this Qin Shi Huang.
就是
It is.
李斯就叫他賄賂各國的大神
Li Si called him the great god of bribing all countries.
所以這個我就想說
So I just want to say this.
特別是楚國
Especially the State of Chu.
李斯是派一大量的人滲透到楚國
Li Si sent a large number of people to infiltrate the State of Chu.
然後在楚王 楚懷王身邊
Then by the side of King Chu, King Huai of Chu.
如果那些主張戰爭的就是找人去暗殺他
If those who advocate for war are just looking for someone to assassinate him.
這個就是李斯的策略
This is Li Si's strategy.
暗殺集團
Assassination Group
即是以雨加暗殺
That is to say, by using rain to carry out an assassination.
所以這個我經常說的
So this is what I often say.
其中趙國之亡最後竟然是中了反間計
The downfall of the Zhao State ultimately resulted from falling for a scheme of deception.
唯一可以頂得住秦軍那個人
The only person who can withstand the Qin army.
是被他自己搞定了 就是李牧
It was solved by him himself, that's Li Mu.
李牧最後是能夠頂得住秦國的
Li Mu was ultimately able to withstand the Qin state.
早期是蓮坡
Early was Lianpo.
後來就是李牧
Later it was Li Mu.
兩個都是中反間計而走的
Both used a counter-strategy to get away.
一個而死 蓮坡去了楚國
When one dies, Lianpo went to the State of Chu.
所以這個我經常都說的
So this is something I often talk about.
從來
always
堡壘
Fortress
不會在外面
Not outside.
被人攻破
Be broken through by others.
而在裡面被人攻破
And was breached by someone inside.
這麼像今天那些政團政黨的政治
So similar to the politics of today's political groups and parties.
所以就是
So that's it.
借股資金
Borrowed stock funds
在今天香港都是
Today in Hong Kong is still...
很多打著民主反民主的人
Many people who claim to support democracy are actually anti-democracy.
都是這樣的道理
It's all based on the same principle.
而秦國
As for the Qin state
他是擊破了幾個國家
He has defeated several countries.
其中一個很重要的策略
One very important strategy.
其實你想想
Actually, think about it.
如果要打到英國或者打到齊國
If we want to fight against the UK or Qi State.
是三萬九千里那麼遠的
It's as far as thirty-nine thousand miles.
那你怎樣打到去呢
Then how did you get there?
其實秦國他跟
Actually, the State of Qin is related to...
成吉思汗都有多少
How many Genghis Khans are there?
相似
Similar
就是你要攻人城之前
Before you attack the city.
先奪其志
First seize their will.
透過大規模的屠殺
Through large-scale massacres.
秦代的制度是怎樣呢
What was the system like during the Qin Dynasty?
我先講一些給大家聽
I'll share some with everyone first.
現在我們知道了很多東西
Now we know a lot of things.
因為挖到他們的日記
Because I dug up their diary.
還有那些
What else is there?
竹
Bamboo
竹簡
Bamboo slips
秦運夢
Qin Yunmeng
運夢秦簡
Dreaming of the Qin Bamboo Slips
是一個很重要的
It is very important.
原來秦兵是怎樣的呢
What were the Qin soldiers like?
首先
First
因為他平定了巴蜀和起水利工程
Because he pacified Ba-Shu and initiated water conservancy projects.
大部分的糧食
Most of the food.
由巴蜀儲了很多糧食來供應
A large amount of grain has been stored from Bashu to supply.
做這場侵略戰爭
Conduct this invasion war.
十七歲你就要當兵
You will join the army at seventeen.
有時十七歲以下的人都要當兵
Sometimes people under seventeen have to serve in the military.
當兵黑是怎樣呢
What is being a soldier like?
中央就有飯給你吃
There is food for you to eat in the center.
但是你自己就要帶衣服
But you have to bring your own clothes.
還有零用錢
There is still pocket money.
比無兵仔更差
Worse than a soldier without weapons.
你看多嚴重
How serious do you think it is?
竹簡是有人寫信給媽媽
The bamboo slip is a letter someone wrote to their mother.
很驚訝
Very surprised.
寫信回來給媽媽
Write back to mom.
你要快點寄錢回來
You need to send the money back quickly.
如果你那裡報價便宜
If your price is cheaper there.
你就給報
You just give the report.
如果你報價便宜就快點拿錢來
If your price is cheap, then hurry up and bring the money.
你一個月還拿不到錢來
You still can't get paid in a month.
二則死二就沒命
Two deaths mean no life.
打仗就要帶錢來
If you're going to fight, you need to bring money.
打遠一點也沒命
Hitting from a distance is also lifeless.
所以成也高壓政策
So the success is attributed to the high-pressure policy.
敗也高壓政策
Defeat is also the result of a high-pressure policy.
秦朝對高壓政策
The Qin Dynasty's policy of oppression.
那種嚴密的監管
That kind of strict regulation.
後來陳姓不說為什麼要造反
Later, Chen did not say why he wanted to revolt.
就是因為這個原因
It is precisely for this reason.
其實他最初打仗的時候都是這個模式
In fact, this was the model he used at the beginning of the war.
他就要指定那些軍人要多久要攻陷坐城
He is going to specify how long those soldiers will take to capture the city.
如果不攻陷坐城
If we do not capture the city
你就全部是被殺的
You are all being killed.
所以秦軍是所向卑微
So the Qin army is humble in its approach.
那些人回家是會死的
Those people will die when they go home.
其實人們說為什麼那麼蠢不走
Actually, people say why are they so silly not to leave.
神經病那些階械人被人夾住
The crazy robots are being trapped by people.
因為他是連坐的
Because he is part of a collective punishment.
這個
This.
就是把整個國家吞下
It's about swallowing the entire country.
這兩樣東西
These two things.
就是耕田和打仗
It's about farming and fighting.
還有你知秦國的兵器
Do you know about the weapons of the Qin state?
這個要跟羅馬兵團比較
This needs to be compared with the Roman legions.
首先
First of all
他那些
Those of his.
是用皮片做的配甲
It is armor made from leather pieces.
但是他的武器是非常厲害的
But his weapon is very powerful.
怎麼樣呢
How is it?
他是達到了一件事
He has achieved something.
秦國令人驚訝的
The Qin state is astonishing.
秦國的兵器令人驚訝
The weapons of the Qin State are astonishing.
他是用standard up的配件的
He uses standard up accessories.
可以換換配件
You can change the accessories.
全部的參與
Full participation
但是他在0.2cm以下
But he is below 0.2cm.
即是機器都未必達到
Even machines may not be able to achieve it.
怎樣做到這樣呢
How can this be achieved?
那些腦子的每一個配件
Every accessory of that brain.
這個壞了
This is broken.
可以拆隔壁那個來換的
You can take apart the one next door to replace it.
這是現代的concept
This is a modern concept.
每一件兵器上面都刻著四個人的名字
Each weapon is inscribed with the names of four people.
做那個
Do that.
他師傅
His master.
兵工廠長
Arms factory director
和督工的大臣
And the minister in charge of supervision.
如果有哪一件兵器不耐用
If there is any weapon that is not durable.
這四個人就要負責
These four people will be responsible.
最下層那兩個就要斬首
The two at the bottom must be beheaded.
所以秦代的整個政策是
So the entire policy of the Qin Dynasty is
一個嚴密密不透風的制度
A tightly sealed system.
而這種制度用高壓
And this system uses high pressure.
漢代的時期有一個文人叫賈儀
During the Han dynasty, there was a scholar named Jia Yi.
他寫得很好
He writes very well.
賈儀他說秦國的成功
Jia Yi said the success of the Qin State.
是因為
It's because.
他有一種高壓
He has a kind of high pressure.
但是他的失敗也是因為這種高壓
But his failure is also due to this kind of high pressure.
秦代是否甚至你日常生活都是這樣
Was life even in daily routines like this during the Qin Dynasty?
監察又監察
Supervision and supervision.
是完全是的
It is completely so.
一座犯法
A crime is committed.
就同十座連珠
Just like ten consecutive beads.
你看過有一個叫黑天
Have you seen something called Black Sky?
一個叫起
A call to wake up.
幾個字呢?
How many words?
你便知道
You will know.
秦朝的法令
The laws of the Qin Dynasty.
是柯克到什麼程度
What level is Kirk at?
細緻到什麼程度
How detailed to what extent?
即是幾年幾月幾日種豆
That is, on what year, month, and day did you plant the beans?
就要落幾多星
How many stars are about to fall?
幾多兩
How many taels?
是很準確的
It is very accurate.
每樣生活都規定了
Every aspect of life is regulated.
什麼時候吃肉
When to eat meat?
官僚體系要大到不得了才可以
The bureaucratic system must be extremely large to function.
即是你負責落東西
That means you are responsible for putting things down.
我旁邊看著你落得對不對
I’m watching you next to me to see if you’re right.
這麼麻煩
So troublesome.
這麼麻煩的
So troublesome.
還有他的稅收制度也很嚴重
His tax system is also very severe.
你不要以為我們現在
Don't think that we are now...
一代稅收制度
A generation of tax system
就看人口稅和田稅
It's just about the population tax and land tax.
他不是這樣
He is not like this.
每一樣東西都有稅
Everything has taxes.
他的農具要收稅
His farming tools will be taxed.
你去逛街買東西要收稅
When you go shopping, you have to pay tax.
零售稅全都是稅
Retail tax is all tax.
所以全部都是紀錄
So everything is recorded.
你想想有多嚴重
Think about how serious it is.
最嚴重的是
The most serious issue is
如果紀錄錯了
If the record is wrong.
官員要殺頭
Officials should be beheaded.
萬歲萬歲萬萬歲
Long live, long live, long long live!
所以這些戰事也沒有問題
So these battles are not a problem either.
他只能夠是戰事
He can only be a war.
假如他用一個最經典的句子來總結
If he were to summarize it with the most classic sentence.
仁義不思攻守之人
A person of benevolence and righteousness does not consider offense and defense.
攻守之勢而也
The situation of offense and defense.
你打仗的時期
The period when you fought.
你可以用這麼嚴厲的政策
You can use such strict policies.
但是你治國的時候就要用仁義
However, when you govern the country, you must use benevolence and righteousness.
仁義不思
Benevolence and righteousness are not to be pondered.
攻守之勢而也
The momentum of offense and defense.
你攻的時候不要說仁義
When you attack, don't speak of benevolence and righteousness.
這個是傳統歷史講的
This is what traditional history says.
其實是有第二套的解釋
In fact, there is a second explanation.
我幾十年來都是困擾在一件事
I have been troubled by one thing for dozens of years.
困擾在一件事
Troubled by one thing.
一個就是
One is
陷害了秦始皇這麼厲害
Framed Emperor Qin Shi Huang so severely.
李斯是丞相
Li Si is the chancellor.
雙平六角
Double flat hexagon
他一掛了
He passed away.
秦國已經亡了
The Qin state has already perished.
迅速已經亡了
Xun Su has already perished.
兩三年就已經有人說了
It has already been said for two or three years.
不做反了
Don't go against it.
一掛了第二年就做反了
After hanging for a year, everything turned the opposite the next year.
這是第一個大問號
This is the first big question mark.
第二個大問號就是
The second big question is
何以秦政之後無秦政
Why was there no Qin government after the Qin dynasty?
沒有人意圖copy秦國這套系統
No one intends to copy the Qin state's system.
毛澤東說千古猶恆秦皇政
Mao Zedong said that the Qin Emperor's rule is eternal through the ages.
他的中央系統
His central system.
那套是專制獨裁
That system is authoritarian dictatorship.
但是秦國
But the Qin State
這樣的government
Such a government.
這麼繁瑣的法例
Such cumbersome regulations.
是沒有人意圖去吸的
No one intends to inhale it.
是沒有人意圖去吸過
There is no one who intends to inhale it.
成本這麼大
The cost is so high.
蕭河一建立這個漢朝
Xiao He established this Han dynasty.
就立即散約法
Immediate termination of the contract.
我是研究這個領域的
I am studying this field.
二年律令其實是漢代一開始的時候都是走這個法例
The two-year legal system was actually followed at the beginning of the Han Dynasty.
但發覺太複雜了
But I found it too complicated.
最後人人犯法
In the end, everyone breaks the law.
人人犯法
Everyone breaks the law.
只有兩個可能性
There are only two possibilities.
第一你就逼死人
First, you're just driving people to death.
秦朝就是逼死人
The Qin Dynasty was simply unbearable.
逼死人就做反
If you push someone to death, then do it in reverse.
第二個
The second one.
你就放棄
Just give up.
放法例出來
Release the legal provisions.
最後所有法例崩潰
In the end, all laws collapse.
所以你無論如何怎麼搞死你搞這麼多法例
So no matter what you do, you can't get rid of so many laws.
我下課講整個結論是怎樣
I will explain the whole conclusion after class.
由頭開始
Start from the beginning.
但基本上
But basically
這兩個困擾我很久的問題
These two problems have troubled me for a long time.
我是幾年前才覺得有答案
I only felt that I had an answer a few years ago.
這個答案是星期四會見到的
This answer will be seen on Thursday.
但不是傳統中國歷史那些
But not the traditional Chinese history.
我只是駁一件事
I just want to refute one thing.
他們覺得
They feel.
如果中國歷史是人意不思
If Chinese history is beyond human thought.
人意不思秦朝從來都是人意不思
The people's thoughts have never considered the Qin Dynasty.
濫用民力當然很嚴重
Abusing the people's resources is certainly very serious.
秦國五百萬人
The Qin State has five million people.
拿了一百萬人來打仗
Brought a million people to fight.
全國統一了大概二千多萬人
The country has unified approximately twenty million people.
他的數字是怎樣
What are his numbers like?
他還有一百萬軍隊
He still has one million troops.
另外花了一百多萬人
In addition, more than one million people were spent.
去建長城
Go to build the Great Wall.
建柯防宮
Jian Ke Fang Gong
建柯武
Jian Ke Wu
人口比例來說
In terms of population ratio.
是減少了
It has decreased.
比起他統治秦國的時候
Compared to when he ruled the Qin state.
全國是花了二百多萬人而已
The whole country only spent over two million people.
為什麼反而崩潰呢
Why is it that it collapses instead?
是八分一而已
It's just one-eighth.
他原本是花了五分一的
He originally spent one-fifth.
全國的力量
The strength of the nation.
統一了之後
After unification
任你怎麼說都是二百多萬人
No matter how you put it, it's still over two million people.
Out of一個二千多萬人的國家
Out of a country of more than twenty million people
會不會是因為他管治成本過高
Could it be because his governing costs are too high?
缺乏這些外盤呢
Lacking these external markets.
我們下星期再見
We'll see each other again next week.
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