鍾俊鏘：季績後重投新股熱？

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鍾俊鏘：季績後重投新股熱？

好的今天本色环节电话线上已经接通到了华盛证券业务副总监钟俊强先生

Okay, today in the main section, we have connected on the phone with Mr. Zhong Junqiang, the Deputy Director of Huasheng Securities.

哈喽你好

Hello, how are you?

哈喽大家好

Hello everyone!

哈喽又到周五了

Hello, it's Friday again.

又是一个这个中报密集公布的周五

Another Friday with a flurry of mid-year reports being released.

今天真的好多公司发发这个中报的业绩了

Many companies have really released their mid-year report performances today.

那刚其实巧如也说到了一个就是美团

Well, what Qiao Ru mentioned just now is also Meituan.

美团这个二季度的业绩

Meituan's performance in the second quarter.

其实也让我们感觉到

In fact, it also makes us feel that...

哎还好像还都是不错的一个状态

Well, it seems like everything is still in a pretty good state.

营收达到了247.2亿元

Revenue reached 24.72 billion yuan.

那是益利大增152%

That is a 152% increase in profit.

翻翻还不止

Flipping and still not enough.

怎么看呢这只股票

What do you think of this stock?

其实从来我都是非常推荐和看好

Actually, I have always highly recommended and had a positive outlook on it.

所以美团点名了

So Meituan was named.

这个第一呢

This is the first one.

他从这个第二季度的业绩来看

From the performance in this second quarter.

比较亮丽或者说主要的盈利

Relatively bright or we can say main profits.

就是他的餐饮外卖

It is his food delivery service.

受惠于疫情也是呢

It is also benefited by the pandemic.

有一个刚才你也说了

There is one that you just mentioned.

一个非常非常大的一个增长

A very, very large growth.

嗯

Hmm.

那除此之外呢

What about besides that?

我觉得大家还是可以继续留意

I think everyone can still continue to pay attention.

他的市场占有率

His market share.

对于他其他周边业务的一个拓展优势

An expansion advantage for his other peripheral businesses.

这个呢

This one?

我觉得是非常有想象空间

I think there is a lot of room for imagination.

那从这一份中报来看呢

So, from this mid-term report, what can we see?

我们可以看到

We can see.

哪怕就是这个我们知道有这个疫情

Even if we know there is this pandemic.

但是呢

But then

他的这个酒店以及旅游业的这个营收呢

His hotel and the revenue from the tourism industry, you know.

还是有45亿元

There is still 4.5 billion yuan.

比起去年同期的

compared to the same period last year

仅仅下降了13.4%

Only decreased by 13.4%.

那这个呢

Then what about this?

我觉得也是好于预期的一个亮点

I also think it is a highlight that is better than expected.

当然要了解到他是怎么样去实现这个情况呢

Of course, we need to understand how he is going to achieve this situation.

可能还是需要一点时间再看一下

It may still take some time to take another look.

但是总的来说呢

But overall, however,

他的这个管理以及盈利能力呢

His management and profitability.

可以说是非常强

It can be said to be very strong.

再加上他完全是一个内循环的概念啊

Moreover, he is completely a concept of internal circulation.

就是说我们目前最担心的这个负面因素

That is to say, the negative factor we are currently most concerned about.

两个嘛

Two.

就疫情跟中美

Regarding the pandemic and China-U.S. relations.

那中美呢

What about China and the United States?

就疫情他就受惠

He benefited from the pandemic.

中美他基本是无感

He basically has no feelings about China and the United States.

就没有影响的话呢

Then there would be no impact.

我觉得这一支美呢

I think this one is beautiful.

还是继续会是一支强势的股份来的

It will still continue to be a strong stock.

嗯

Yeah.

好

Good.

那说完了这个美团

That concludes the discussion about Meituan.

之后呢

What happens next?

我想来跟你聊一聊

I want to talk to you.

也是今天同样公布中报的

Also announced the mid-term report today.

就是这个亚生活

This is the Asian way of life.

亚生活

Sub-lifestyle

那其实亚生活的话

If that's the case, living in Asia...

今天的整个中报业绩收入也是增长近八成

Today's entire interim report revenue also increased by nearly 80%.

盈利能力也是出现了一个跨越式的增长

Profitability has also experienced a leap in growth.

而且总体来看

Moreover, overall.

好像无论是现金流啊

It seems that regardless of cash flow...

收入啊

Income ah

还是净利润啊

It's still the net profit, huh?

哎

sigh

都是不错的

They are all good.

综合实力也是跻身到了行业排名的

Comprehensive strength has also stepped into the industry's rankings.

第四名了

Fourth place.

所以对于这支股票的话

So regarding this stock.

后市您觉得这种持续性如何呢

How do you think the sustainability of this trend will be in the future?

这个呢

This one.

其实我自己也是比较有预期了

Actually, I also have some expectations myself.

这些物业类的

These properties.

物管股类的了

Property management stocks.

其实呢

Actually, well...

在缺份

In lack of a share

应该也是有九家的这些公司呢

There should also be these nine companies.

公报了他的半年报

He announced his semi-annual report.

其实在八家

Actually, at the eight houses.

在2020年

In 2020

2020年

Year 2020

上半年呢

The first half of the year.

都能够实现到净利润

Can achieve net profit.

较去年同期增长50%以上

Increased by over 50% compared to the same period last year.

也就是说

That is to say.

其他都这么好

Everything else is so good.

亚生活其实也不难想象呢

Living a secondary life is actually not hard to imagine.

他也不会太坏

He won't be too bad either.

那这个呢

What about this one?

我觉得也是比较预期之中

I think it was also quite expected.

当然亚生活他自己来说呢

Of course, for him, life is like that.

因为也是受惠于母公司

Because it also benefits from the parent company.

这个也是呢

This one too.

自己他的这个股价的目标价呢

What is his target price for this stock?

就是比如说摩通

For example, Morgan Stanley.

他之前也是有一个股价的目标价呢

He previously also had a target price for the stock.

也是调升了到五十块钱

It has also been raised to fifty dollars.

维持这个增持的这个评级

Maintain the buy rating.

所以呢

So, what?

整体来说

Overall

这一支股份

This share.

还有一个因素

There is another factor.

就是说

That is to say.

他前今年啊

He was here last year.

这个H股全流通已经获批了

The full circulation of this H-share has been approved.

那对于他的这个资金

Then for his funds

在购买一些有潜力的项目

Investing in some promising projects.

或者说改善他的营运来说呢

Or say in terms of improving his operations?

也是一个比较正面的消息

It's also a relatively positive piece of news.

所以呢

So?

这些物管股

These property management stocks.

我觉得呢

I think that.

应该还是

It should still be.

或者说亚生活的股票呢

Or should we talk about the stocks of Asian Life?

应该还是或者说亚生活的股票呢

It should still be the stocks of the sub-living.

亚生活这些龙头物管

Leading property management companies in Yasheng.

还是比较正面

It's still relatively positive.

但是

However

由于他们比较透明一些

Because they are a bit more transparent.

我自己觉得

I personally feel

还是呢

Or not?

可能想象空间就没有一些

Perhaps there isn’t as much room for imagination.

就是可能像美团这些呢

It could be like Meituan and others.

想象空间比较大

The imagination space is relatively large.

这些物管股

These property management stocks.

物管股的话

Property management stocks.

其实除了亚生活

In fact, besides living in Asia.

还有比如说像绿地控股

For example, Greenland Holdings.

还有那个叫

And that one is called

那个那个蓝光

That blue light.

蓝光家宝

Blue Light Family Treasure

蓝光家宝服务

Blue Light Family Treasure Service

这几只好像总体来看的话

These few seem to be good overall.

他的业绩好像都是不错的

His performance seems to be quite good.

对

Correct.

是的

Yes.

整体啊

Overall.

当然我对于

Of course, I have feelings about...

也不是对于每一只都有太深入的研究

Not every one has been studied in depth.

整体来说呢

Overall,

物管股它能维持最高的估值

Property management stocks can maintain the highest valuation.

第一

First

它是它的先进流比较好

Its advanced flow is relatively good.

第二呢

Secondly

就是大家都觉得

Everyone feels that.

它应该呢

It should.

可以不断的在母公司身上

Can continuously be on the parent company.

就是拿到一些项目

Just getting some projects.

再加上呢

In addition.

它不断的这些服务升级

It continuously upgrades these services.

就是居民愿意花钱

It means that residents are willing to spend money.

那这几个方面呢

Then what about these aspects?

在可见的这样

In this way, it is visible.

应该还可以呢

It should be okay.

应该还是能够维持

Should still be able to maintain.

维持的

Maintenance

好

Good.

那接下来讨论一个板块

Let's discuss a section next.

其实这个板块

Actually, this section.

我最近这段时间一直没有怎么关注

I haven't really been paying attention lately.

就是这个4G和5G的概念

It is the concept of 4G and 5G.

今天其实我看到一条消息

Today, I actually saw a piece of news.

是关于中国联通的

It's about China Unicom.

中国联通的时候

When China Unicom (was established).

早盘的时候是有微跌的状态

There was a slight decline in the early session.

但是后来下午呢

But later in the afternoon?

基本是慢慢的拉起来了

Basically, it's slowly being lifted up.

大概是在1点钟之后

Probably after 1 o'clock.

有一波

There is a wave.

然后是涨幅将近5%

Then the increase is nearly 5%.

然后有这样一个数据

Then there is such a data.

说4G用户7月份是

It is said that 4G users in July are

净增了165.9万元

Increased net by 1.659 million yuan.

那所以我想来问问您

So I wanted to ask you.

就是关于4G和5G这样的一些概念

It's about some concepts related to 4G and 5G.

您觉得还会

Do you think it will still happen?

还会重新回到大家的视野当中吗

Will it return to everyone's sight again?

其实不像是有太大的市场关注

In fact, it doesn’t seem like there is much market attention.

可能已经炒过一波了

It may have already been speculated once.

但是联通呢

But what about Unicom?

就是它的股价走势是比较特殊

Its stock price trend is relatively unique.

我自己觉得应该是有一些

I personally think there should be some.

可能还没有公布

It may not have been announced yet.

就

Just

我会有一个疑问

I have a question.

就是是不是有一些

Is it that there are some?

我们还没有公布

We have not announced it yet.

还没有知道的因素在里面呢

There are still unknown factors involved.

因为从5G看到的这些因素看来

Because of the factors observed from 5G.

你顶多就说它

You can at most just say it.

怎么估值修复

How to value repair?

但是也不应该修复的那么离谱吧

But it shouldn't be fixed so ridiculously.

是吧

Is that so?

所以有点难以解释

So it is a bit difficult to explain.

反而呢

On the contrary.

就是说

That is to say.

最近你看到一些手机设备股

Recently, you have seen some smartphone device stocks.

以及美股的苹果啊

And the Apple of the US stock market.

这一些之间的一些股价呢

Some stock prices among these.

还有这个小米

And this little rice.

我觉得是

I think so.

怎么说

How to say it?

有点微妙

A bit subtle.

我自己猜

I guess by myself.

我觉得意味着

I think it means.

可能市场份额呢

Possible market share?

是有一些调整

There are some adjustments.

就手机市场份额

Regarding the market share of smartphones.

不是在中国

Not in China.

是全球的手机市场份额

It is the global smartphone market share.

有调整

There are adjustments.

反映这个一个因素

Reflecting this as a factor

对

Yes.

那好

Alright then.

接下来我们要讨论一个重点的问题

Next, we will discuss a key issue.

就是关于这个新股的问题了

It's about the question of this new stock.

这也是今天其实

This is actually today too.

之前也有跟周沟通过的

I have also communicated with Zhou before.

那新股方面

As for the new stocks

其实上周五的时候

Actually, last Friday.

你也说到了农夫山泉

You also mentioned Nongfu Spring.

我说了一下

I said a little.

我们需要再看一看

We need to take another look.

看看他这周会有一些什么新闻出来

Let’s see what news he will have this week.

那现在我们关注到的农夫山泉的是

What we are focusing on now regarding Nongfu Spring is

你下周一招股筹

You are going public next Monday.

十亿美元的一个数值

A value of one billion dollars.

那这样将近非常大的一个数值了

Then this will be a very large value.

这个数值您觉得

What do you think of this value?

它的受热程度有多大呢

How intense is the heat it receives?

哇

Wow

这个真是

This is really...

感慨万分

Deeply emotional.

要说

To say

其实这只股份呢

In fact, this stock...

我梳理了一下

I sorted it out.

就是

Just is.

应该是我们的团队也梳理了一下

It should be that our team also organized it a bit.

然后他最后公布的这个集资额

Then the fundraising amount he finally announced.

为什么感慨万分

Why such deep emotions?

就是一股难求

It's just a hard-to-find feeling.

我们

就我自己呢

As for myself...

还好

Not bad.

就我们属于零售的券商为主

We are primarily a retail brokerage.

但是我有一些就是机构投资的朋友呢

But I have some friends who are institutional investors.

他们就非常非常的头疼了

They are very, very frustrated.

所以国际配售啊

So it's for international distribution.

可以讲上去什么

What can be discussed?

就肯定是公开发售超额

It must be a public offering that is oversubscribed.

然后国际配售呢

Then the international placement is...

从90%就缩到50%

Reduced from 90% to 50%.

对于他们来说是非常困难

It is very difficult for them.

这个我就有机会慢慢再说了

I will have the opportunity to talk about this slowly later.

我们本身这一只股份呢是什么呢

What is our share itself?

其实我最近也是

Actually, I've been the same recently.

我我应该是比较早说吧

I should have said it earlier.

也不敢说是第一个说

I can't say I'm the first one to say it either.

就是他有一点点是这个茅台的味道什么的

It’s just that he has a bit of the taste of this Moutai and so on.

为什么呢

Why is that?

就除了他没有就是那种身份的象征

Except for him, there are no other symbols of that identity.

茅台他有一个很特殊的身份象征

Moutai has a very special symbolic identity.

之外呢

What about outside of that?

他的这个毛利率

His gross profit margin.

市场占有率的低

Low market share

他的毛利率呢也是非常高

His gross profit margin is also very high.

总体来说呢

Overall,

基本都是在50%多60那样子

Basically, it's mostly around 50% to 60%.

因为他有不同的产品

Because he has different products.

包括我们最基本的就是他的饮用水

Including the most basic is his drinking water.

还有一些茶饮料果汁什么的

There are also some tea drinks, juices, and so on.

都是非常高毛利率

They all have very high profit margins.

而且他的现金流非常强

Moreover, his cash flow is very strong.

有如果我们有接触国内的一些消费者的话呢

What if we have contact with some consumers in the domestic market?

他们包括我自己

They include myself.

我自己在国内也就是生活过一段时间

I have only lived in the country for a while myself.

嗯

Hmm.

我自己买水的话

If I buy water myself.

我也是买农夫山泉

I also buy Nongfu Spring.

不知道为什么

I don't know why.

我也是

Me too.

哈哈哈

Hahaha

这个口感啊

This texture is amazing.

对

Yes.

整个品牌感觉啊就特别好

The overall feeling of the brand is particularly good.

然后呢

And then?

就是他的这个认可啊

It's just his recognition, you know.

就比较难以取代

It's relatively difficult to replace.

就有一个认可度

There is just one level of recognition.

而且呢

Moreover,

他的这个收益率去年收益是百分

His yield last year was percent.

不是是240亿人民币

No, it's 24 billion RMB.

纯利是49.5亿人民币

The net profit is 4.95 billion RMB.

按年增长的还有百分之十五亿人民币

An additional 1.5 billion yuan is growing annually.

有一个说法就是说其实他是

There is a saying that actually he is...

并不是特别的着急去上市的

Not particularly anxious to go public.

人家不缺钱

They are not short of money.

对不缺钱

Not short on money.

也没有说什么要像一些经济股

There is also no mention of needing to be like some economic stocks.

集资要去研发什么不是

What is the fundraising for research and development?

所以对你听他这个营运状况啊

So it's important for you to listen to his operating conditions.

或者说那种格局啊什么的

Or perhaps it's about that kind of pattern or something like that.

就想起茅台

Just thinking of Moutai.

好不好

Is it good or not?

那再加上呢

Then what else?

他发售的上市的市值啊

The market value of the product he launched.

就占他的这个规模非常小

His scale is very small.

不到百分之五应该不到百分之五

It should be less than five percent.

这说明什么呢

What does this indicate?

就他就很少货放出来

He rarely releases goods.

而且呢很有可能有一些就已经有一些投资者

Furthermore, it's quite possible that some investors are already involved.

可能一些基础投资者的已经拿到一定的货源了

Some basic investors may have already secured a certain amount of supply.

就股份了

Just shares.

还有很多券商其实留了那个妈展了

Many brokerages actually kept that mom exhibition.

已经对对对

Exactly right.

这两回事两回事

These are two different things.

然后呢他的

Then his...

保健人是中兴跟摩根斯丹尼都是比较强的保健人

The healthcare providers of ZTE and Morgan Stanley are both relatively strong.

我觉得呢

I think that...

就是第一一股难求

It's just that the first stock is hard to come by.

第二呢

The second one.

这个股价应该会非常非常的强

This stock price should be very, very strong.

所以大家很值得关注啊

So everyone is worth paying attention to.

也是我相信也是值得抽的

I also believe it is worth drawing.

但是要自顾自己的风险承受能力

But one must consider their own risk tolerance.

资金状况啊

Financial situation?

就去做步骤

Just go do the steps.

就是这样好

That's just fine.

下周一招股筹十亿美元的农夫山泉

Nongfu Spring, which is seeking to raise one billion dollars in its initial public offering next Monday.

哎

Ah.

这个中欧这边

This side of Central Europe.

是非常关注的

It is very concerning.

那还有一只股票同样也是抽十亿美元

There is another stock that also has a buyback of one billion dollars.

很有意思哈

It's very interesting, huh?

那就是这个京东京东健康

That is JD Health from Jingdong.

同样也是这个十亿美元的话

It is also this billion-dollar statement.

您觉得这只股票的关注程度有多高

How high do you think the level of interest in this stock is?

真的没有什么关注程度

There really isn't much concern.

所以他的这个十亿美元是如何来的

So how did his one billion dollars come about?

怎么怎么定定义出来的呢

How was it defined?

其实我自己来说呢

Actually, for myself,

确实没有太深入

Indeed, there hasn't been much depth.

我也不敢讲太多

I don't dare to say too much either.

但是我们从市场上从这个无论是客户和机构来说呢

However, from the market perspective, whether it is from clients or institutions...

真的没听太多人去讲这一部分

I really haven't heard many people talk about this part.

我的一个market sense

My market sense.

我觉得他会不会是黑马要研究一下

I wonder if he might be a dark horse; I need to study this further.

但是最起码的我目前就不会特别对他有信心

But at the very least, I don't have much confidence in him at the moment.

再说我记得也跟丽丽聊过

Moreover, I remember chatting with Lili as well.

就是京东健康啊

It's JD Health.

他说要上市

He said he wants to go public.

我们才我们才知道有他

We only just found out about him.

对我到现在其实都没怎么关注过他

I actually haven't paid much attention to him until now.

对所以呢

So what?

这个就怎么说呢

How should I put this?

我觉得先集中啊

I think we should focus first.

我们的这些

Our these

或者说注意力到有价值的

Or it means to focus attention on what is valuable.

然后再观察一下

Then observe again.

比如说如果他确实是有价值的话

For example, if he is indeed valuable.

这个市场的热度应该会比较高

The popularity of this market should be relatively high.

那到时候等他如果真的有热度起来

Then when the time comes, if he really gains popularity...

我们再花时间去分析他

Let's take some more time to analyze him.

也不迟

It's not too late either.

好那关注完了这两只

Alright, I've finished following these two.

相对就是热度比较高的一个这个关注度比较高吧

Relatively, this is a topic that is more popular and has a higher level of attention.

应该这么说

It should be said like this.

关注度比较高的新股之后

After the new stocks with higher attention.

还有其实还有一些新股

Actually, there are some new stocks as well.

也许被农夫山泉的光芒所遮盖了

Perhaps overshadowed by the brilliance of Nongfu Spring.

比如说接下来

For example, next.

有可能要上市的还未盈利的这个生物科技企业

A biotechnology company that may go public but has not yet become profitable.

这个荷博医药

This HeBo Medicine

还有呢

What else?

比如说像乐享互动

For example, like LeXiang Interactive.

这些其实都是跟现在的一个热门行业相关的

These are actually related to a currently popular industry.

有些跟互联网相关的

Some are related to the internet.

有些跟医药相关的

Some are related to medicine.

那如果说我们大家都去抢农夫山泉

Then what if we all go to抢农夫山泉?

我相信肯定不可能大家都抢到嘛

I believe it's definitely unlikely that everyone will try to get it.

那是不是说有可能他们会变为新股当中的一些黑马呢

Does that mean it's possible they could become some dark horses among the new stocks?

要看具体到时候的资金情况了

It depends on the funding situation at that time.

我觉得新股的话呢

I think regarding new stocks,

当然像农夫山泉那么有故事

Of course, it's as storied as Nongfu Spring.

那么有盈利

Then there is a profit.

数字又那么亮丽的

The numbers are so dazzling.

其实不多

Actually, not much.

但如果他能够带起一个头的话呢

But what if he could take the lead?

有机会冲进

Have the opportunity to rush in.

其实这个也是跟我觉得整体的这个

In fact, this is also related to what I feel overall about this.

我自己这么看

This is how I see it.

现在呢

What about now?

接下来好像说

It seems like it will be said next.

就是中美之间又恢复这个谈判

It means that the negotiations between China and the United States have resumed.

如果说这个恢复谈判的话呢

If we talk about resuming negotiations, then...

其实对于整体的这个

Actually, regarding the overall situation…

这个氛围有机会缓和

This atmosphere has the opportunity to ease.

但是缓和是不是两边什么都不做呢

But does easing mean doing nothing on both sides?

我觉得就是还是会做一个积极的

I think I will still be positive.

这个保护自己的部署

This deployment to protect oneself.

也就是说呢

That is to say,

资金上市公司企业回归到香港上海

Funding from listed companies is returning to Hong Kong and Shanghai.

这步伐呢

What about this step?

也不会因为这方面的缓和而终止或者说慢下来

It will not be terminated or slowed down due to the easing in this regard.

那如果这个是继续的话呢

Then what if this continues?

也就是说

That is to say.

市场的热度呢

What about the market's enthusiasm?

热度理应是越热越有力

The heat should get stronger as it gets hotter.

就对于这些中资股份

Regarding these Chinese-funded shares.

越热越有力

The hotter, the stronger.

我会不会

Will I?

我觉得呢是可以憧憬期待什么

I think it's possible to long for and anticipate something.

就是今年之前的这一波新股热潮

It is the wave of new stocks that happened before this year.

应该会有机会在年底之前再出现

There should be an opportunity to appear again before the end of the year.

尤其是在11月之前再出现

Especially before November reappears.

所以呢

So, what?

我们不妨走着瞧或者说看一下

Let's wait and see, or we can take a look.

会不会有的话呢

Could there be anything like that?

我们就可以

We can do it.

就是坐一个顺风车

It's just getting a ride with someone going in the same direction.

也是收购

It is also an acquisition.

也是听起来也挺开心

It sounds pretty happy too.

嗯嗯嗯真的是

Mm mm mm, it really is.

是呀

Yes.

那刚才我听到他们呢

I just heard them.

就是分析了这个几只的新股

It is an analysis of several new stocks.

特别是非常之火热的农夫山泉

Especially the extremely popular Nongfu Spring.

那是内地的知名品牌

That is a well-known brand from the mainland.

那其实呢

Well, actually...