涂國彬：恒指向下空間多大?

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Please don't hesitate to like, subscribe, share, and support Mingjing and Diandian programs.

至于港股 期指现货月这一跌214至16977

As for the Hong Kong stock index futures, the spot month dropped 214 to 16977.

跌幅为1.24% 低水15 成交章数5万章多

The drop is 1.24%, with a low water level of 15 and over 50,000 transactions.

国企指数跌87落到5938 都跌近1.5%

The state-owned enterprise index fell by 87 to 5938, dropping nearly 1.5%.

大市成交点我们半日有571亿多

The market turnover for the half day is over 57.1 billion.

看完科字先 恒指跌1.4% 科指一半 0.7%的跌幅

After watching the Kexi index, the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.4%, while the Kexi Index dropped by 0.7%.

上午收市3425.3%

The morning closing was 3425.3%.

上午收市3425.3% 跌了24点

The market closed at 3425.3% in the morning, down 24 points.

上午收市3425.3% 跌了31成分股 5只升

The market closed at 3425.3, down 31 components, with 5 rising.

蓝筹里面 巴尔州 今早有12只升

In the blue chip sector, there were 12 stocks that rose in Baer Province this morning.

今早表现最好的蓝筹股 头3位可自家 若铭新闻和若铭康德

The top three performing blue-chip stocks this morning are Ruoming News and Ruoming Kangde.

有趣的是 若铭新闻和若铭康德昨天跌得比今晚反人多些

Interestingly, Ruoming News and Ruoming Kande dropped more than the anti-human ones last night.

这三个股份升幅介乎2.6%到4.68% 最强是若铭康德

The increase in these three stocks ranges from 2.6% to 4.68%, with the strongest being Ruoming Kangde.

今早最差有3只 新洲 华润电力和李宁

This morning, there were the worst three: New South Wales, China Resources Power, and Li Ning.

今早跌5%到6.4%

This morning it fell by 5% to 6.4%.

4%跌最多是李宁

Li Ning had the largest drop at 4%.

跟大家数十大

Count down the top ten with everyone.

第一位营富基金今早跌2.5% 报17.66

The First Capital Fund fell 2.5% this morning, reporting at 17.66.

排第二阿里巴巴跌1元报80.6

Alibaba fell by 1 yuan to 80.6, ranking second.

接着到中海油

Next, to CNOOC (China National Offshore Oil Corporation).

中海油今日跌了半成

CNOOC dropped by 5% today.

上午收市18.32 跌8.4

Closing at 18.32 this morning, down 8.4.

腾讯跌过6 报367

Tencent fell by 6, now at 367.

美团跌1 报118.8

Meituan fell by 1, reported at 118.8.

邮邦跌8 报52.7

Youbang fell 8, reported at 52.7.

比亚迪十大邦只是升它

BYD's Top Ten Bonds Just Rise It.

升了3.8 报240

Increased by 3.8, reported at 240.

建设银行跌1 报5.31

China Construction Bank fell by 1, reporting at 5.31.

中国移动跌了1.45 跌下70

China Mobile fell by 1.45, dropping below 70.

跌到69.75

Dropped to 69.75.

排第十的工行今早跌了9 报4.11

Industrial and Commercial Bank, ranked tenth, fell 9 this morning, reported at 4.11.

收完十大之后看下亚外四十大

After collecting the top ten, take a look at the top forty of the Asia-Pacific.

五蚊洲低位股票

Five-dollar low-priced stocks

原先有只农夫山泉

Originally, there was only Nongfu Spring.

不过现在退到五十大所以不见

However, it's not visible now because it has retreated to the fifties.

至于大波动的股票

As for stocks with large fluctuations.

有一只叫做联合能源集团

There is a company called United Energy Group.

今早跌了几十元

It dropped by several dozen yuan this morning.

曾经3.2

Once 3.2

上午收3.4 跌了1.5

In the morning, it rose by 3.4 and then dropped by 1.5.

1.5代表了几多呢

What does 1.5 represent?

近2.3的跌幅

A decline of nearly 2.3%.

其余还有没有呢

Are there any others?

包括白银电力

Including silver electricity.

今天跌了6.8

Today it fell by 6.8.

李宁6.8

Li Ning 6.8

新洲国际半成

Xinzhu International Half-Finished

中港核电力又是6.8

The nuclear power between China and Hong Kong is also 6.8.

2014 巴黎访澳

2014 Visit to Australia from Paris

巴黎2024

Paris 2024

我是LWU舞球运动员陈浩元

I am LWU dance ball athlete Chen Haoyuan.

很开心很感触

Very happy and touched.

今次可以成功在巴黎这里

This time we can successfully be here in Paris.

拿到一面银牌

Won a silver medal.

希望大家

Hope everyone.

一路继续对我们残疾人士运动员支持

Continue to support us, the athletes with disabilities.

我们会感觉到

We will feel.

感谢港队以及国家队运动员

Thank you to the Hong Kong team and the national team athletes.

为我们留下难过回忆

Leave us with sad memories.

港台 没有不可能

Hong Kong and Taiwan, nothing is impossible.

巴黎陈澳

Paris Chen Ao

RTHJ

RTHJ

Inspire Spirit in Motion

Inspire Spirit in Motion

时间

Time

有流动的节奏

There is a flowing rhythm.

微风

Breeze

有初秋的感受

There is a feeling of early autumn.

从收音机的声音

From the sound of the radio.

和大自然海啸

With nature's tsunami

平静而不孤单的一晚

A calm yet not lonely evening.

由深境到思绪

From deep abyss to thoughts.

展开一趟

Make a trip.

自然之旅

Journey of Nature

香港电台文教组制作

Produced by the Educational Broadcasting Group of RTHK.

《大自然之声》

"The Voice of Nature"

逢星期一至六清晨三点半至五点

Every Monday to Saturday from 3:30 AM to 5:00 AM.

香港电台第一台

Hong Kong Radio One

《财经热点分析》

"Analysis of Financial Hotspots"

今天和这个热桶是做《财经热点分析》的

Today, we are doing "Financial Hotspot Analysis" with this hot barrel.

请教会持牌人永丰金融的陶国斌

Please consult the licensed person Tao Guobin from Yongfeng Financial.

你好

Hello

其实很难说股市

Actually, it's hard to say about the stock market.

因为所有平均线

Because all the averages.

均线全部在上面

All the moving averages are above.

最近那条

Recently that one.

多少呢

How much is it?

最近那条250天线

Recently, that 250 antenna.

一万七千二百几

Seventeen thousand two hundred something.

我们今年一万七都出了

We sold 17,000 this year.

落到一万六千九百九十二

Fell to sixteen thousand six hundred ninety-two.

顺右收下

"Take it on the right."

就算最近那条

Even that one recently.

银红分界线都差二百几点

The silver-red dividing line is off by about two hundred points.

都没说上面那些

None of the above was mentioned.

保力加通道那些宗族

The clans of the Polygar Corridor.

一万七千五

Seventeen thousand five.

其实那里十天二十天

Actually, it's ten or twenty days there.

十天五十天混在一起

Mixing ten days with fifty days.

突然间好像这么恶劣

Suddenly it seems so harsh.

它没有什么突发性的东西

It doesn't have anything sudden or unexpected.

但一万一万地下跌

But it keeps falling by tens of thousands.

其实外围方面

In fact, on the external side.

不要说美股方面

Don't talk about the US stock market.

虽然说减息了一个人礼拜

Although it is said that interest rates have been cut for one person a week.

但它也阴注阴注地下跌

But it is also declining slowly.

你看道指

Do you see the Dow Jones?

可能下个礼拜日本央行又议息

The Bank of Japan may hold a monetary policy meeting again next week.

人们又害怕

People are afraid again.

虽然日本央行委员都说

Although members of the Bank of Japan all say

未必的

Not necessarily.

我们吸收上次七月份的经验

We have absorbed the experience from last July.

会再乱来的

It will be chaotic again.

但Yen你不要理

But you don't care about Yen.

一四一之后

After one four one

日经也赔跌了百分之一

The Nikkei also fell by one percent.

似乎我认为

It seems that I think.

市场到处都开始黏黏的

The market is starting to get sticky everywhere.

我们当然一向都是弱的

We have always been weak, of course.

是不是现在

Is it now?

弱上加弱

Weaker and weaker.

这边就有少少是

There are just a few here.

先天下之忧而忧

Worry before the world worries.

好听点来说

To put it nicely

人家那边升

Someone is getting promoted over there.

我们未必升很多

We may not rise much.

人家那边跌

Someone over there fell.

我们就可能跌得更重要

We may fall even more important.

我想这个港股的形态

I think this is the pattern of the Hong Kong stock market.

都不是

None of them.

今天才开始

It just started today.

过去那十几年

The past ten or so years.

都挺明显

It's quite obvious.

大家尤其是你看着恒指

Everyone, especially you, should pay attention to the Hang Seng Index.

上上落落

Ups and downs.

人家那边已经是升完又升

They have already had their promotions over there.

我想这个是

I think this is.

没办法的

There's no way.

要认清一个事实

One must recognize a fact.

但是

But

关键就是你刚才提到

The key point is what you just mentioned.

其他市场

Other markets

都会是这样

It will all be like this.

我想就很直接地

I want to be very direct.

一个贯穿所有市场的因素

A factor that runs through all markets.

最主要是货币政策

The most important thing is monetary policy.

大家都

Everyone does.

留意着接下来

Pay attention to what comes next.

虽然你说

Although you said

减息是会减

Interest rate cuts will reduce.

但是那个

But that.

幅度是怎样呢

What is the amplitude like?

或者是

or it is

后着是怎样呢

What is the situation like after that?

那个布局上面

That layout above.

它可以表达出来就是

It can be expressed as.

减这一次

Reduce this time.

又可能

may also

接着下去又不是

It’s not going to continue like this.

每次都会继续减的

It will continue to decrease every time.

可能会停下的

It may stop.

我自己个人看法就是

My personal opinion is that

其实由去年年底到现在

Actually, from the end of last year until now.

我一直都维持着同样的看法

I have always maintained the same view.

就是觉得在2024年底

Just feeling that by the end of 2024.

之前就应该是要

It should have been earlier.

减一至两次

Reduce by one to two times.

如果现在你有三个

If you have three right now.

会期

Conference period

很大机会如果是

There is a good chance if it is.

要避开美国的总统大选

To avoid the U.S. presidential election.

就11月那里不要减这么多

Just don't reduce so much in November.

那就

Then let's do it.

9月做了12月做了

Did it in September and did it in December.

那就圆满了

That would be perfect.

甚至有些人可能会觉得

Some people might even feel that way.

这次会不会需要

Will this time be needed?

50点指干脆

50 points are straightforward.

快一点

Hurry up.

但是

But

以美联储他们的作风

In the style of the Federal Reserve.

数据为本

Data is fundamental.

看清形势

See the situation clearly.

他宁愿之后真的见到

He would rather meet in person later.

数据真的很明显的时候

When the data is really obvious.

他后发才

He is late to develop.

再帮你减

I'll help you reduce it again.

那一下就50点指

That moment was a 50-point indicator.

就是他每次都是这样的

It's always like this with him.

2022年那一转就是

That turn in 2022 is...

暴力

Violence

什么叫后发才是

What does it mean to be a latecomer?

力度更厉害

The force is更厉害.

暴力式

Violent style

你这样做

You do it this way.

就是他现在那个形态

It’s just his current form.

我觉得都会维持的

I think it will all be maintained.

不是说这么爽快帮你

It's not like I'm helping you so readily.

就立刻

Immediately.

做完所有东西

After finishing everything.

但也不只是他才是这样

But he is not the only one like this.

你看欧洲央行那里

Look at the European Central Bank over there.

都表明了立场

Have all expressed their position.

我这次减

I am on a diet this time.

不代表下次都继续要减

It doesn't mean that we will continue to reduce next time.

都是继续要看数据

We still need to keep watching the data.

尽管现在

Despite now

通胀似乎是受控

Inflation seems to be under control.

那个大的形势上面

That big situation above.

要多点质重在刺激经济

More emphasis should be placed on quality to stimulate the economy.

不要让那个失业

Don't let that be unemployed.

继续是

Continue is

增加或者

Increase or

那个劳工市场要冷却

The labor market needs to cool down.

这些就继续看数据

Just continue looking at the data.

所以我想

So I think.

令到为什么投资者

Why do investors invest?

没有什么特别大的一些诱因

There aren't any particularly significant incentives.

你说有没有突如其来的东西

Do you think there are sudden things?

没有

No.

有没有令到很振奋的东西

Is there something that really excites you?

没有

No.

大家就等

Everyone is waiting.

等的过程里面通常

Usually in the process of waiting

会淡静一点的

It will be a little calmer.

成交反映了出来

The transaction has been reflected.

波幅也都反映了出来

The fluctuations have also been reflected.

不是只是股市

It's not just the stock market.

其他市场陆陆续续都看到这种情况

Other markets are gradually seeing this situation.

大家在那里等

Everyone is waiting there.

等这个过程里面

Wait in this process.

一抹一抹下的话

A touch here and there.

有很多原先

There were many originally.

特别是这个星期

Especially this week.

你知道有港股通的更换

Do you know about the changes to the Hong Kong Stock Connect?

昨天开始

Since yesterday

受惠的包括阿里巴巴

Beneficiaries include Alibaba.

即时就

Right now.

硬净了

Hardened.

它这期已经升了上来

It has already risen this time.

硬净得来成交多了

The more hard work you put in, the more deals you will close.

但问题是

But the problem is

有些被人剔除了一些

Some have been excluded by others.

不少内房

Many domestic real estate companies.

又不够义惠就被人

Not enough righteousness and benefits and then being taken advantage of by others.

不断扔

Keep throwing.

甚至这期有些

Even this issue has some.

刚进去之后又被人

As soon as I went in, I was approached by someone again.

很少出货

Very few shipments.

我经常觉得

I often feel

入港股通

Access to the Hong Kong Stock Connect

就好像

Just like

等于一个盆子

Equals a basin.

在一个魔咒里面

In a spell.

一定会怎样

It will definitely be like this.

其实逢生入这些磅

In fact, entering these pounds is a chance for survival.

有时福是我所倚

Sometimes fortune is what I rely on.

我是福所福

I am blessed by blessings.

究竟是好事还是不好事

Is it ultimately a good thing or a bad thing?

有时很难说

Sometimes it's hard to say.

连那些什么首富磅

Even those so-called wealthy tycoons.

什么磅都是

What pound are they all?

因为你会在那个名单里面

Because you will be on that list.

很多东西就不是再是纯粹你自己的基本面

Many things are no longer purely based on your own fundamentals.

你自己的因素

Your own factors.

有很多其他东西

There are many other things.

才被你任务配合

Just got assigned by your task.

譬如你说的

For example, what you said.

进入这些磅

Enter these pounds.

它对那个

It is for that.

整个指数上面

Above the entire index.

或者是

Or it is.

资金流动那样东西

Things like the flow of funds.

都是会

They all can.

有你份

You are included.

那样东西自然就整件事会有分别

Then that thing will naturally make a difference in the whole matter.

所以我想未来一段时间投资者继续留意

So I want investors to continue paying attention in the near future.

当然如果你说

Of course, if you say so.

部分

Part

里面刚才你提到的内房

The inner room you just mentioned.

其实他们自己本身

In fact, they themselves.

基本面都是一般的

The fundamentals are all average.

你看不到短期之内

You cannot see it in the short term.

有很大的翻身或者起色

There is a great chance for a turnaround or improvement.

相对来说

Relatively speaking

投资者都明白的

Investors all understand this.

只不过你说

It's just that you said.

在4月中那一刻

At that moment in mid-April.

打一转

Take a turn.

可能会有

There may be.

好的内房的刺激措施

Good measures to stimulate the real estate sector.

过多一两个月又讲一下

Let's discuss it again in a month or two.

又可能在其他

Also possible in other places.

贷款方面可能有些方便

It may be somewhat convenient in terms of loans.

这些门可以帮一帮手

These doors can help a little.

但是

But

未令到投资者是

It has not reached the investors.

有很大的

Very large.

一个信心在那里

A confidence is there.

我想逐段逐段

I want to do it section by section.

你要有足够多

You need to have enough.

的这些举措

These measures

才开始大家观察到觉得是真的

It was only at the beginning that everyone noticed and thought it was real.

有

Yes.

如果是单一的政策

If it is a single policy.

其实不足以支持

Actually, it is not sufficient to support.

刺激上去很久

It's been a long time since it got exciting.

其实我们小时候说

Actually, when we were kids, we used to say

当经济立的时候

When the economy is stable.

很多时候我们就会

Many times we will.

寄望举一个例

Hope to provide an example.

就是抉择者去做这些所谓的打救活动

It is the decision-makers who carry out these so-called rescue activities.

或者

Or

通常用美国的经验

Usually based on American experience.

数据是差的

The data is poor.

看联储局

Watch the Federal Reserve.

放手

Let go.

放松货币政策方面

Relaxing monetary policy aspects.

但现在出现的形势就是

But the current situation is that

在内地经济出来的数据

The economic data coming out from the mainland.

当然内房是一个因素

Of course, the domestic housing market is a factor.

根据所有事情

Based on everything.

接着

Next

以暑假为例

Taking the summer vacation as an example.

所谓的消费里面

In the so-called consumption.

CPI都

CPI all

不升得多

Not much increase.

甚至他们说最近好像月饼都卖得比较差

They even said that it seems the sales of mooncakes have not been good lately.

下个星期就是中秋节

Next week is the Mid-Autumn Festival.

正因为这样的话

It is precisely because of this.

很多时候既然是经济急立的话

Many times, since it's an urgent economic matter.

总之就是对未来有

In short, it's about having expectations for the future.

不稳定性强了的话

If the instability increases.

大家会觉得

Everyone will think.

货币政策方面

Monetary policy方面

内地不做多些事

The mainland doesn't do more things.

其实

In fact

每个月那些所谓的LPR都会慢慢慢慢向下移了

The so-called LPR will gradually move downward month by month.

更加大力度的东西都不做

Don't do anything with greater intensity.

是不是要等美国减息才做

Is it necessary to wait for the U.S. to cut interest rates before taking action?

效果会强一些还是怎样

Will the effect be stronger or something?

两个方面去看

Look at it from two aspects.

第一件事我觉得

The first thing I think is

月饼那里

Where are the mooncakes?

你可以另一个角度去看

You can look at it from another angle.

不一定是纯粹

Not necessarily pure.

你很多时候不是自己吃的

You often don't eat by yourself.

是拿来送礼的

It is meant to be given as a gift.

送礼搞关系

Giving gifts to build relationships.

现在可能搞完都是

It might all be done now.

没什么效果

Not much effect.

没什么效果就减少一点

If there is no effect, just reduce it a little.

另一个就是关于你刚才说的

The other one is about what you just mentioned.

很多人是

Many people are.

希望打救

Hope for salvation.

无论美国也好或者其他地方

Whether in the United States or other places.

很多时候喜欢

Like it a lot many times.

政策有什么刺激

What incentives does the policy have?

但是这个心态

But this mentality

不是那么符合现实的

Not quite in line with reality.

譬如你说中国内地

For example, you say mainland China.

其实过去那40年增长很高速度的时候

In fact, during those past 40 years of rapid growth.

正正就是

Exactly.

放手给你们自己去摸索这条路

Let go and explore this path for yourselves.

你觉得哪个方向做生意好

Which direction do you think is good for business?

甚至

even

那些

Those

新兴的

Emerging

科技的龙头

The leader of technology.

他们最喜欢的就是

What they like the most is

最初搞出来都没有

It was initially not created at all.

没有人知道会这样的

No one knows it would be like this.

好像

It seems.

小狗猴子那样

Little dog like a monkey.

任你试试

Feel free to give it a try.

试完之后才

Only after trying it out.

我慢慢规范回来

I will slowly return to normal.

这样的情况

Such a situation.

我想现在

I want to now.

那个问题就是

The question is that

不是说太多

Not saying too much.

不是说不够政策

It's not that there aren't enough policies.

反而可能是有时

It might actually be sometimes.

太多政策

Too many policies

最好就是那个政策

The best is that policy.

慢慢

Slowly

如果能够愚民休息

If the populace can be made foolish, let them rest.

相对来说

Relatively speaking

干预是少一些的情况

Intervention is a less common situation.

但是

But

说就容易了

It's easy to say.

因为始终你面对着

Because you are always facing it.

大家已经知道

Everyone already knows.

就是中美那个角力的情况

It's the situation of the strategic competition between China and the United States.

有很多事情你事先要准备

There are many things you need to prepare in advance.

那你准备的过程之中

During your preparation process.

不多不少其实就

Just right, actually.

就是这里那里都会

It's everywhere here and there.

影响到的

Affected.

就是很多的环节

It's just a lot of links.

所以

So

你说叫它少一些政策又不行

You said it can't have fewer policies.

但是多一些政策又不行

But having more policies is not enough.

现在

Now

你见得到包括

You can see including.

刚才你说的

What you just said.

就是内房那些情况

It's just the situation of the domestic real estate.

因为内房其实

Because the internal housing actually

房地产价格

Real estate prices

最终是反映

Ultimately reflects.

在那块土地上面

On that piece of land.

大家生产

Everyone produces.

赚到钱的那个程度而已

It's just to the extent of making money.

现在不是正正说一样东西

It's not the right time to say the same thing.

如果

If

全球的

Global

自由贸易的程度受到限制

The degree of free trade is restricted.

跟着就是中国内地和外边的

Next is the comparison between mainland China and the outside.

就是经济

It's just the economy.

那个网环上面

On that net ring.

是有些阻滞的

There are some obstacles.

那以往就靠着那样东西是成功的

In the past, success relied on such things.

现在

Now

当然是会有些影响

Of course, there will be some impact.

我想这个最终就是反映你那个消费的意欲

I suppose this ultimately reflects your willingness to consume.

楼价的看法

Opinions on housing prices

所有甚至股市的资产价格那里

All asset prices, including those in the stock market, are there.

我想就

I want to just

不应该说单靠

It should not be said that solely relying on.

货币政策也好或者财政政策

Monetary policy or fiscal policy.

就可以完全帮得到

Can be completely helpful.

尤其是这些政策很多时候

Especially these policies often

都是周期性

It's all periodic.

中间过程也都是有

The intermediate process is also present.

一些副作用在这里

Some side effects are here.

譬如政府投了钱去做某些事情

For example, the government invested money to do certain things.

就会制压了私人市场

It will suppress the private market.

做同样的那个份额

Do the same share.

通常会放大

Usually will magnify.

它是没有出来的

It has not come out.

会有一个这样的效果在这里

There will be an effect like this here.

还有时

Sometimes.

在供应部门用的钱

Money used in the supply department.

效率又未必很高

Efficiency may not necessarily be very high.

这些全部都是要考虑在内

All of these need to be taken into consideration.

所以

So

其实我相信内地

Actually, I believe in the mainland.

消费者也好

Consumers as well.

投资者啊

Investors, ah!

做厂啊

Making a factory.

做生意的

Doing business.

其实每个都明白的

Actually, everyone understands.

只不过就是

It's just that.

明白

Understood.

但是要时间

But it takes time.

不是说它现在立刻好了

Not saying it will be fine right away.

但是我们身处股市

But we are in the stock market.

反过来最重要是要快

On the contrary, the most important thing is to be quick.

我们要讲效率

We need to talk about efficiency.

要高效的没错

It’s definitely important to be efficient.

我刚才说过

I just said it.

你没说过信息我先炒定

You didn't say the information, so I'll decide first.

原来我也是这样

It turns out I am like this too.

就收工了

That's a wrap.

我们的期望和时间

Our expectations and time.

跟真实世界里面

In the real world.

很多时候的

Many times.

执行是有很大的落差

There is a significant gap in execution.

我经常想一样东西

I often think about one thing.

我们集中行都一段日子

We have been focusing on the capital for a period of time.

我经常很有趣的

I often find things very interesting.

以前很高效的

It used to be very efficient.

很快

Very soon.

高效的快

Efficient and fast.

是不是跟他的例子很相似

Isn't it very similar to his example?

开放改革

Open reform

当然是由零到无

Of course, it's from nothing to nothing.

重要的是

The important thing is

其实

Actually

大家以前是看好中国的

Everyone used to have high hopes for China.

所以很多钱进来了

So a lot of money has come in.

有了一些钱在沉浸的话

Having some money makes you feel immersed.

或者铺大了的话

Or if it's spread out more.

任何的效率都更加放大得很快

Any efficiency is magnified very quickly.

但当这些钱慢慢退下退下

But when this money slowly recedes and recedes.

现在越来越干塘的话

Now there are increasingly dry channels.

实际上怎样高效的话

In fact, how to speak efficiently.

或者政策怎样有力的话

Or how policies can be powerful.

所发挥的效应都会被打过折扣

The effects will all be discounted.

会不会这样

Will it be like this?

你说那个速度

What speed are you talking about?

反应的速度

Reaction speed

或者资金投放之后

Or after the capital is invested.

有没有效呢

Is it effective?

其实很视乎当时的那个环境

It actually depends a lot on the environment at that time.

譬如大家任你试一试

For example, everyone lets you give it a try.

当时你说那些科网巨头就好了

At that time, you said those tech giants were great.

由90年代未有2000年那个.com的时候

From the late 90s to the .com era of 2000.

他们开始在那里试一试

They started to try it out there.

大家都是创业阶段

Everyone is at the startup stage.

各个过程中

In each process

不知道哪个游戏规则玩得赢

I don't know which game's rules can lead to a win.

就在那里试

Try it right there.

反正他没有什么规则

Anyway, he doesn't have any rules.

大家先试一试

Everyone try it out first.

原来我们大致上这样是为之重要的

It turns out that this is generally important to us.

后来就去到

Later went to

我们要平台

We want a platform.

我们要有这样的网络

We need to have such a network.

这样的数据就重要了

Such data becomes important.

是试出来的

It is tested out.

总之你不限制的试

In short, you can try it without limitation.

但是现在问题就是

But the problem now is

似乎都不是说限不限制的问题

It doesn't seem to be a matter of limitation.

而是我们要应对外边的那个市场

Instead, we need to respond to the external market.

那个挑战的时候

That time of the challenge.

我们自己要做很多事情去

We have to do a lot of things ourselves.

去想定

Go to think about it.

万一他这样

What if he does this?

我会怎么做

What will I do?

万一他这样

What if he does this?

我又要怎么做

What should I do now?

这些是会影响到自己那个反应的速度

These will affect the speed of one's own reaction.

因为你考虑多了外边那个

Because you thought too much about the one outside.

即是外在环境

That is the external environment.

没错

That's right.

不要紧 我做得平靓正就有生意了

It's okay, as long as I do it well, there will be business.

现在不是只有你平靓正

It's not just you who is beautiful and attractive right now.

还有很多事情要考虑

There are still many things to consider.

我们最近看回马云那个内部

We recently looked back at Jack Ma's internal communications.

在联网所出的名

The name derived from being connected to the internet.

因为刚刚就是

Because it just was.

阿里巴巴成立25周年

Alibaba's 25th anniversary.

这25年其实是

These 25 years have actually been

对于他们来说

For them

除了他们财富上的增值之外

Apart from the appreciation of their wealth.

应该这么说

It should be said like this.

全球甚至全中国的民众

People around the world and even across China.

所有的消费模式都因为此而改变了

All consumption patterns have changed because of this.

不知道

I don't know.

这25年

These 25 years

我经常想到的东西就是

What I often think about is

这些科网企业

These technology companies.

当年他们就是要慢慢一步一触即出

Back then, they wanted to slowly take it step by step until it was finally revealed.

他们也不知道方向是怎样

They also don't know what the direction is like.

所以慢慢要试

So take your time to try.

当年我们的空间里面

Back in the day, inside our space.

还可以不停地试

You can keep trying.

所以结果可以造就很多奇迹出来

So the result can create many miracles.

经济的奇迹

Economic miracle

但正因为可能之后

But precisely because of what might happen later.

你又知道

You know again.

他有什么跨市场操控

What cross-market manipulation does he have?

甚至是垄断等等

Even monopoly and so on.

阿公又出手去帮他截他等等的东西

Grandpa went out again to help him intercept things like that.

当然由没有到现在

Of course, from nothing to now.

高增长期以后

After the high growth period

其实说真的

To be honest.

内地的科网企业

Mainland tech companies

ATMXJ的加价已经很大了

The price increase of ATMXJ has already been significant.

他们都开始进入所谓成熟期的话

They are all starting to enter what is called the mature stage.

在他们的投资价值中会怎样

What will it be like in terms of their investment value?

我相信他们已经大到一个规模

I believe they have already grown to a certain scale.

那个平台效应或者网络效应

The platform effect or network effect.

是其他的竞争对手不容易打得进去的

It is difficult for other competitors to penetrate.

我想这个不是他们最初的原理

I think this is not their original principle.

不是说我要特意要垄断你

It's not that I want to specifically monopolize you.

其实不是的

Actually, it's not.

只不过是

It's just that.

模式上

In terms of the model

一个网络能够发挥的价值

The value that a network can provide.

就是高

Just tall.

举个很简单的例子

For a very simple example.

一个运输的网络

A transportation network.

铁路的网络

Railway network

或者电讯的网络

Or the telecommunications network.

甚至说我有fax机你没有fax机

Even saying that I have a fax machine and you don't have a fax machine.

当年现在大家都不知道什么叫fax机

Back then, no one knew what a fax machine was.

在一个这样的情况下

In such a situation.

几个人有fax机

How many people have fax machines?

整个系统就直线

The entire system is linear.

其实就是一件这样的事

Actually, it's just something like this.

最初他们都未必是知道一回这样的事

At first, they might not have known about such a thing at all.

试下试下就试了出来

Try it out, and you'll find the result.

也都很自然地

It's all very natural too.

就算不是只是内地

Even if it's not just the mainland.

西方国家也好

Western countries as well.

他们的经验都是整整下归了一边

Their experiences have all been set aside completely.

就是一堆是做不定的

It's just a bunch of things that can't be determined.

只有一两间是做得定罢了

Only one or two rooms can be managed well.

我想这个是他自己的行业性质的特色

I think this is a characteristic of his own industry.

就不是他主动地要去垄断

It's not that he actively wanted to monopolize.

或者做些什么手段

Or do something by means.

让竞争对手搞不定的

Make it impossible for competitors to handle.

但是

But

之后他有了这个地位

After that, he gained this position.

他当然可以说我就算没有创意

He can certainly say that I lack creativity.

我就拿钱买创意

I just buy creativity with money.

我不够增长

I am not growing enough.

我又拿钱买增长

I bought growth again with money.

投资者不满意我也可以派钱

If investors are dissatisfied, I can also distribute money.

很多这些做法

Many of these practices

这个是

This is

其实这个不是跟

Actually, this is not together with.

西方的其他那些科技巨头是一样的

Other tech giants in the West are the same.

没有分别的

No distinctions.

我相信

I believe.

其实西方有西方另一个玩法

Actually, the West has another way of playing.

他们做大完之后

After they get big.

你想想

Think about it.

最近陆续都会被人说你垄断

Recently, I have been increasingly accused of monopolizing.

拆骨

Bone dislocation

他们走一走就走拆骨

They walk a little and then walk until their bones are broken.

内地的科网都是这样

The tech companies in the mainland are all like this.

当然这一段我们就讲一下股市投资

Of course, in this segment we will talk about stock market investment.

既然市况这么弱的话

Since the market conditions are so weak.

通货付两样东西

Currency pays for two things.

一是什么都不做

One is to do nothing.

或者是退去一些避险的策略

Or it could be to retreat from some hedging strategies.

例如做

For example, do.

买银债

Buy silver bonds.

或者是

Or it is.

做一些存款

Make some deposits.

虽然在下跌

Although it is declining.

但也

But also

保持着看明朗

Stay clear and bright.

明朗化再做其他东西

Clarify before doing other things.

另一方面就是

On the other hand, it is...

有些朋友说

Some friends say

做淡可以吗

Can I make it lighter?

当所有军省在上面再来做淡的话

When all the military provinces come back to discuss on it again.

直播都大不大

Is the live broadcast big?

我相信

I believe.

刚才你说前者那个就很正路

You just said that the former one is very straightforward.

最多你说就算现在才买某些债

At most, you could say that buying certain bonds now is still acceptable.

可能有不够之前的吸引

It may not be as appealing as before.

但是

However

也都大的趋势上面

It is also a big trend.

如果整个方向是减息

If the overall direction is to cut interest rates.

也都不是只是美国一路减息

It's not just that the U.S. has been cutting interest rates all along.

而是澳洲其他地方都减息的话

But if interest rates are reduced elsewhere in Australia.

起码未来的半年一年

At least in the next six months to a year.

其实都会是

Actually, it will all be.

有利于那个

Beneficial to that.

更加多人对于这些债的

More and more people are concerned about these debts.

投资的需求

Demand for investment

这是第一点

This is the first point.

第二点就是

The second point is

进取一点

Take a step forward.

不是只是说可以

It's not just saying it can be done.

放在定存保住就算了

Just keep it in a fixed deposit and that's it.

你说主动出击是

You say taking the initiative is...

拨它向下的

Push it down.

这个是有个

This is a 有个.

你说有没有短线的空间

Do you think there is room for short-term trading?

有

There is/are.

你起码

At least you.

由四月中去到

From mid-April onwards.

五月中那段的升幅

The increase during mid-May.

现在差不多

It's almost there now.

差一点点而已

Just a little bit.

差一步

One step away.

就抵消它

Just offset it.

那你

Then you.

下了1000点左右

Dropped around 1000 points.

真的差一步

Really just one step away.

有空间

There is space.

快的就一两天

It'll be quick, just one or two days.

慢的可能

Slow possibility.

搞一个多星期都可以搞得到的

It could be done in more than a week.

我想形态上面

I want to focus on form.

不是说没有直播率

It's not that there is no live broadcast rate.

不过就是

It's just that.

你要

You want.

很快速

Very fast.

有时你做这个

Sometimes you do this.

因为容易是

Because it is easy.

有时你磨烂了

Sometimes you get worn out.

你看

You see.

我觉得各方是对的

I think all parties are right.

你是坚持

You are persistent.

但问题有时

But sometimes the problem is

越是这些淡静

The more these moments are calm.

虽然说

Although it is said...

十个牛皮九个淡而已

Nine out of ten braggers are just empty talk.

但是

But

到时如果它真的用时间来跟你

If it really uses time to come to you then.

选好的话

If chosen well

那很多这些

There are many of these.

尤其是你用衍生工具去做这些做淡的动作

Especially when you use derivative instruments to take these bearish actions.

就未必会是这么有利

It may not be so favorable.

时间不在你那边

Time is not on your side.

相反

Opposite

你坐着科

You are sitting on science.

企业原则上慢慢坐着挨过

The company should, in principle, gradually endure.

都还有可能上升的空间是有在那里

There is still potential for further growth there.

远超过你想象

Far beyond your imagination.

可以挨得多的你

You can endure a lot.

所以我想

So I think.

两个不是一个对称的

Two are not symmetrical.

一个注码来的

A bet has come in.

所以如果你说真的要做

So if you say you really want to do it.

短线

Short line

你限定比如你一两天

You limit it to one or two days, for example.

看对看错

See right, see wrong.

或者甚至你说你拿个时间去说

Or even you say you take some time to talk.

比如美联储

For example, the Federal Reserve.

做个议息

Make a statement on interest rates.

之前你就要整件事完成了

You should have completed the whole thing beforehand.

我想

I think.

这样会比较有纪律

This will be more disciplined.

风险管理会做得好点

Risk management can be improved.

其实很多朋友都觉得

In fact, many friends feel that

首先是太难不做

First, it's too difficult to do.

或者太难不为

Or perhaps it's too difficult and not worth it.

你说如果一万七留下

You said if you leave behind seventeen thousand.

你再跟他拼拼多少呢

How much more are you going to compete with him?

五百到一千

Five hundred to one thousand

一个不记得

One does not remember.

因为现在已经很低了

Because it is already very low now.

当然你举个例子

Of course, please give an example.

一万八万九跟你做就胜算大一点

If I do it with you, the odds of winning are a bit higher at eighteen or ninety thousand.

一个不过有些利好消息出来

There is a piece of good news coming out.

我不知道的话到时就夹死了

If I don't know, I'll be stuck later.

所以越来越多人谈

So more and more people are talking.

他就不做了

He just won't do it.

但是当然重要的一件事就是

But of course, an important thing is that...

当年期

Term year

水瓶或者是很多朋友

A water bottle or a lot of friends.

一些股票

Some stocks

刚才按了给

I just pressed give.

证券行

Securities firm

很多都开始有洗仓式的格局

Many have started to have a washout pattern.

这个会不会就是

Is this it?

最后阶段我们叫做

The final stage we call

洗完仓之后就开始好一点

It gets a bit better after washing the warehouse.

一定怎样才是

It must be a certain way.

回应你刚才说的

In response to what you just said.

是否只有一千几百元

Is it only a few thousand yuan?

怎样做什么呢

How to do what?

现在你只是看着

Now you are just watching.

四月中那一刻

That moment in mid-April.

就是一千几百点

It's just over a thousand points.

如果你看着

If you are looking at it.

一月中那一刻

The moment in mid-January.

就会是一四七九四

It will be 14794.

没错

That's right.

又不同玩法

Different gameplay again.

随着他在移动下去的时候

As he moved forward.

自己大家那个narrative

Create your own narrative.

那个说法就会转变

That statement will change.

因为你的移动平均线是小后的

Because your moving average line is smaller.

然后气氛上面有其他

Then there are other things in the atmosphere.

会跌就当然有当时某些消息触动

If it falls, it must be triggered by certain news at that time.

一堆东西一起

A bunch of things together.

那一刻就可以加速的

That moment can accelerate.

我不是叫大家要做

I am not asking everyone to do it.

做短做淡仓

Make short and light positions.

只不过是

It's just that.

你说有没有可能

Do you think it's possible?

多过你刚才说的

More than what you just said.

一千几百点

One thousand and a few hundred points.

三几百点是有可能的

It is possible to have three or four hundred points.

只不过你说要做的时候

It's just that you said you wanted to do it.

纪律要做得好

Discipline must be well executed.

还有注码控制好点

Also, control the betting amounts better.

不要乱来

Don't mess around.

没错

That's right.

另一阶段里面

In another phase.

我回到那个例

I returned to that example.

刚才说的向下的部分

The part I just mentioned about going down.

但问题

But the problem is

我都觉得

I think so too.

刚才说多了很多

Just now, I said a lot more.

每个礼拜都有一只

There is one every week.

被人洗仓的那些股票

The stocks that have been washed out by others.

是否正正都是因为

Is it precisely because of this?

钱不多

Not much money.

我持续外流的话呢

If I continue to leak, then...

这些情况特别明显

These situations are particularly obvious.

还是怎样

Or how?

其实就算不用外流

Actually, even without external flow.

我想根本

I want to understand fundamentally.

之前是很依靠

Before, it was very reliant.

就是过去很多年

It's just that many years have passed.

过去十年八载

In the past ten years.

或者十几年

Or maybe ten years or so.

大家希望其他人

Everyone hopes for others.

是有相关需求

There is a relevant demand.

无论你是

No matter who you are

那个

That one.

学也好

Learning is good.

或者上市公司也好

Whether it's a listed company or not.

牌照也好

License is fine too.

各方面

All aspects

都是很依靠整体的

Everything relies heavily on the whole.

但是如果你说

But if you say

大家全部都停了

Everyone has stopped.

或者是

Or it's...

在内地的

In the mainland.

那方面

That aspect.

经济增长

Economic growth

稍微慢一点

A little slower please.

那其实真的立竿见影

That really takes effect immediately.

所有东西都受影响

Everything is affected.

现在正在见到

Currently seeing.

那个效果

That effect.

所以周期

So cycle.

是长的

It is long.

震冲期都长的

The shaking period is long.

就要慢慢捱的

Just have to take it slowly.

所以持前保态

So maintain the previous status.

风险为立方面

Risk is a立 aspect.

不要那么勇俊

Don't be so brave.

未尝不是今时今日

It is not without reason that it is today.

在

At

港股市场里面的朋友

Friends in the Hong Kong stock market.

要做的策略

Strategies to be implemented

今天谢谢永丰金融的

Thank you, Yongfeng Financial, for today.

陶葛斌妈妈

Tao Gebin's mother

和我们分享他的投资看法

Share his investment views with us.

谢谢你

Thank you.

下星期中间通知保价

Notify the price protection in the middle of next week.

再退一星期再找你

I'll get back to you in another week.

谢谢你

Thank you.

拜拜

Goodbye.

送了妈妈之后

After sending mom off

再看看市场

Take another look at the market.

上周收市人生指数是

Last week's closing life index was

16992.241

16992.241

跌幅为1.4%

The decline was 1.4%.

看看成交

Let's take a look at the transaction.

半日成交有571亿

The half-day trading volume was 57.1 billion.

收市的财经新消费

The financial news on new consumption at the market close.

我们以下节点

Our following node

一带一路论坛

Belt and Road Forum

找成功朋友和你们分享

Find successful friends to share with you.