4. 一手樓市況與樓市走向

正所謂衣食住行

As the saying goes, clothing, food, housing, and transportation.

我們今天講了行

We talked about travel today.

五一出行

May Day Travel

剛剛和李兄講食

Just talked about food with Brother Li.

這一節不如講一下住

This section might as well talk about living.

看回最近的數據

Looking back at the recent data.

樓價似乎都開始回穩

The property prices seem to have started to stabilize.

我們這一節請來富水香港房地產分析員

In this segment, we have invited a real estate analyst from Fushui Hong Kong.

王子浩Sam Wong

Prince Hao Sam Wong

和他一起傾

Lean with him.

Sam 早晨

Good morning, Sam.

早晨Sam

Good morning, Sam.

早晨主持 大家好

Good morning everyone.

我們看回沙巷物業股價署公佈的數字顯示

Looking back at the figures published by the Sand Lane Property Stock Price Office

3月的C樓的售價指數是上回350以上

The price index for Building C in March is above 350, similar to the last time.

到351.4

To 351.4

是自去年10月以來

It has been since last October.

再度升上350水平

Rise up to the 350 level again.

按月來講就升了1.4%

In terms of months, it has increased by 1.4%.

而且都是連升三個月

Moreover, it has risen for three consecutive months.

你認為這個數據的升幅

What do you think about the increase in this data?

是反映香港樓市的跌勢

It reflects the decline of the Hong Kong real estate market.

或者不要說跌勢

Or rather, don't say decline.

一個調整的趨勢已經是結束

A trend of adjustment has already come to an end.

還是只不過是一個小陽春 小反彈呢

It's still just a small spring, a slight rebound.

我想香港的樓市

I want the real estate market in Hong Kong.

其實講到尾都是一個供應和需求主導

In the end, it's all about supply and demand.

你看回今年年頭的情況

Look back at the situation at the beginning of this year.

那個重開

That reboot.

就是我們所謂re-opening的一個時間點

It's a time point that we refer to as re-opening.

其實是來得比大家預期都早

Actually, it arrived earlier than everyone expected.

結果就是大家很快就會

The result is that everyone will soon.

哇 經濟好像又有回一些縮減了

Wow, it seems like the economy has contracted again.

樓市有些見底的感覺

There is a sense that the housing market is bottoming out.

於是很多需求

So there are many demands.

過去因為受到疫情所謂禁止的一些需求

Some demands that were so-called banned in the past due to the pandemic.

重新出現回來

Reappear.

同時間一手的一些供應

Some supplies from the same hand at the same time.

其實是需要一些時間去準備的

Actually, it takes some time to prepare.

就是發展商他們去開一些新盤

It is the developers who are opening some new projects.

需要一些時間去準備

It takes some time to prepare.

變成我們看在疫情剛剛結束

It has become as we see it just after the pandemic ended.

重開的這三個月那裡

Where has it been these three months since reopening?

就有一個比較短期

There is a relatively short-term one.

看起來好像一個

It looks like one.

所謂我們叫undersupply

What we call undersupply.

或者一個供應比較短缺一點的情況出現

Or a situation where supply is relatively short occurs.

但是去到2月左右

But by around February.

過了農曆年打後之後

After the Lunar New Year.

其實我們都看到很多發展商

Actually, we have seen many developers.

他們的準備功夫都做得七七八八

Their preparations are somewhat complete.

於是很多新盤都可以說是空群而出

As a result, many new developments can be said to emerge from a vacant crowd.

於是我們現在就看到樓市的價格

So now we see the prices in the real estate market.

因為供應和需求相對去一個比較平衡的情況

Because supply and demand are relatively in a balanced situation.

於是那個價格相對去一個穩定一點

So that price is relatively more stable.

如果你說去看長遠一點的

If you say to look a bit further ahead.

我們其實都覺得

We all actually think that

今年去到上半年

This year has reached the first half.

都可能是一個需要一些時間

It may take some time.

去給市場去消化一些

Go to the market to digest some.

去年下半年積下來的一些新盤

Some new properties accumulated in the second half of last year.

而去到今年下半年開始

As we enter the second half of this year

可能那個樓市就相對會有一個

Perhaps that real estate market will relatively have a...

更加明顯的升勢

More evident upward trend.

我們期望今年下半年開始

We expect to begin in the second half of this year.

可能可以做得一個

Maybe it can be done.

單位數左右的一個樓市的反彈

A rebound in the real estate market in the range of single digits.

去到2024年

Reach 2024.

如果說利率啊

If we talk about interest rates,

各方面的宏觀的因素

Macro factors from various aspects.

都更加在正面的時候

Even more so during positive times.

我們就可能會看到一個升勢

We may see an upward trend.

可以繼續持續下去

Can continue to carry on.

我想跟進問一個問題

I would like to follow up with a question.

因為你說剛才提到

Because you mentioned earlier.

一些發展商都積極去推售

Some developers are actively promoting sales.

那些去年積聚那些的新盤

Those new properties accumulated last year.

我聽其他的來源就說

I heard from other sources that...

就是以往香港發展商手頭上

It's about the developers in Hong Kong having at hand.

拿了預售的單位的數目

The number of units taken for pre-sale.

平均就是六千多個

On average, there are more than six thousand.

但是因為去年樓市就倒跌

However, the property market fell last year.

有樓價下調

Property prices are declining.

所以現在就現在手頭上

So right now, at this moment.

發展商已經拿了預售

The developer has already obtained the pre-sale.

還沒推出那些的新盤單位

The new units have not been released yet.

是有萬二萬三個

There are 12,000 to 13,000.

就是比以往平均高出一倍

It is twice the average level compared to the past.

所以會不會令到

So will it cause?

接下來推新盤那個

Next, let's promote the new project.

好像你剛才講的

It seems like what you just said.

那個壓力

That pressure.

就是大家都想快一點去庫存

Everyone wants to go to the inventory faster.

在那個價格方面

In that price aspect.

就會比較有大幅增加

It will have a significant increase.

大幅的折扣

Substantial discount

其實坦白講

To be honest,

我想大部分大型的發展商

I think most large developers

其實都是上市公司來的

Actually, they are all publicly listed companies.

他們的策略一直都是隨行走市

Their strategy has always been to follow the market trends.

根據市況來去推判

Make judgments based on market conditions.

因為他們其實每一年

Because they actually every year.

都會有一個所謂合同銷售的目標

There will always be a so-called goal of contractual sales.

都需要對股東負責

All need to be accountable to the shareholders.

需要買到一定數量的樓

Need to buy a certain number of houses.

所以其實就算你說以往

So actually, even if you say in the past...

都不存在

Does not exist at all.

特別是那些大型的發展商

Especially those large developers.

都不存在一個很識貨

There is no such thing as someone who is very discerning.

收買貨不賣的清單

List of purchased goods that are not for sale.

當然因為去年下半年

Of course, because in the second half of last year.

這個市場的情況是不理想的

The situation in this market is not ideal.

再加上疫情很多的一些

In addition, there have been many issues due to the pandemic.

所謂防疫的限制

The so-called restrictions for epidemic prevention.

都令到可能開一些示範單位

All of this may lead to the opening of some demonstration units.

等等的情況都不是那麼方便

The situation is not so convenient, etc.

所以的確是有一定的

So indeed there is a certain degree of.

的庫存是聚積了下來

The inventory has been accumulated.

所以我覺得如果你說

So I think if you say

會不會有一些減價的現象出現

Will there be some price reduction phenomena?

或希望可以加快一點

Or hope to speed up a bit.

去取回這些庫存

Go retrieve these stocks.

我覺得是

I think it is.

我們不排除的

We do not rule it out.

還有另一個

There is another one.

我們需要考慮的因素

Factors we need to consider.

就是其實現在的利率環境

Actually, the current interest rate environment is...

和當年

And in those years.

就是說

That is to say.

可能2019年以前

Possible before 2019.

那個利率環境都很不同

The interest rate environment is very different.

因為對於發展商來講

Because for developers

他們以前的持貨成本

Their previous holding cost.

在一個利率相對比較低的情況之下

Under a situation of relatively low interest rates.

其實就比較低

Actually, it's relatively lower.

當然就會沒有那麼明顯

Of course, it won't be so obvious.

但是你說現在去到現在

But you said to go to now.

現在我們說的

What we are talking about now.

HIGHBOR都3點多

It's already past 3 o'clock at HIGHBOR.

之前比較高的時候

When it was relatively high before.

可能去到4 接近5

It might reach 4, close to 5.

對於發展商來講

For developers,

他要持貨的那個資金成本

The cost of capital for holding the goods.

也都會相對比較高

It will also be relatively higher.

也都會令到他們

It will also make them.

可能希望可以儘快

Hope it can be soon.

這樣可以做到一個資金回籠

This can achieve a capital recovery.

SEP就開了關

SEP has opened the gate.

就很多分析

There are many analyses.

本來就說

It was originally said.

開了關之後

After opening the door.

應該會刺激到一些

It should stimulate some.

內地的買家來香港買樓

Mainland buyers come to Hong Kong to buy property.

香港政府有個高端人才的計劃

The Hong Kong government has a program for high-end talent.

但另一方面

But on the other hand.

發展商沒多久之前

Not long ago, the developer...

就要求特區政府說減辣

It requires the special administrative region government to say to ease the measures.

新加坡的發展商

Developers in Singapore

新加坡就加了這個

Singapore has added this.

剛剛加了這個

Just added this.

加得很厲害

Very intense addition.

很辣

Very spicy.

針對那些內地的買家

Regarding those buyers from the mainland.

你覺得其實會不會

Do you think it actually will?

開了關之後

After opening the switch

其實內地帶來的購買力

The purchasing power brought by the mainland.

都是比較弱

They are all relatively weak.

可能是走了去新加坡

Maybe went to Singapore.

然後主要我們的樓市

Then mainly our real estate market.

都是本地那些這樣的用家

They are all local users like this.

不知道你怎麼看

I don't know what you think.

我覺得這個都是一個

I think this is all one.

合理的看法

Rational viewpoint

老實講

To be honest.

你看回就算是在疫情前

If you look back, even before the pandemic...

其實香港

Actually, Hong Kong.

說真的外地買家來香港買樓

To be honest, buyers from outside come to Hong Kong to purchase properties.

佔的比例

Proportion占

根據中研的數據

According to the data from the China Research Institute.

都不是很高

Not very high.

可能是10至20%

It may be 10 to 20%.

那個原因就是

The reason is...

他們不在香港買樓

They are not buying property in Hong Kong.

或者減少在香港買樓

Or reduce the purchase of properties in Hong Kong.

最大原因並不是

The main reason is not

與不與人化稅有關

Related to whether it involves humanization tax or not.

因為你說的

Because you said so.

外地買家來香港買樓

Buyers from outside the region come to Hong Kong to buy properties.

需要三成的人化稅

Need a 30% tax on individuals.

其實你都需要對那個後市

Actually, you still need to be aware of the market outlook.

有一定的樂觀程度

There is a certain level of optimism.

才會願意給三成的人化稅

Only then will they be willing to give a three percent tax.

因為他們說的

Because of what they said.

海外買家來香港

Overseas buyers come to Hong Kong.

本身可以做到那個按揭

It can itself achieve that mortgage.

都只能做到五成

Can only be done at fifty percent.

再加上三成人化稅

Plus a 30% consumption tax.

香港樓價都不便宜

Hong Kong property prices are not cheap.

其實你說的

Actually, what you said.

是需要給差不多八成樓價

It is necessary to pay about 80% of the property price.

一來硬掘就要給八成樓價

Once you start digging, you have to pay 80% of the property price.

所以其實這個對於

So actually this is about

很多外地買家來講

Many buyers from other places say.

都是一個需要考慮的因素

They are all factors that need to be considered.

所以你看到的

So what you see is

其實通關之後

Actually, after passing the customs.

就是一些豪宅板塊

It's just some luxury mansion areas.

甚至乎可能是獨立屋的一些

It may even be some independent houses.

市場

Market

他們見到那個

They saw that.

受到通關的推動的一個pick up

A pick-up driven by customs clearance.

相對是做得比較好一點

Relatively, it is done a bit better.

但是你說如果是

But you said if it is

大圍普通一手樓的市場

The market for ordinary first-hand apartments in Tai Wai.

會不會受到因為通關

Will it be affected by customs clearance?

這個因素影響

This factor influences.

而有一個

And there is one.

馬上見到一個

I'll see one soon.

很大的推動作用

A great driving force.

我們坦白講

To be honest,

暫時就未見到

I haven't seen it for now.

至於你剛才也有提過

As for what you just mentioned.

高財通那些

Gao Caitong and those things.

我覺得其實這個

I think actually this is

對於香港樓市

Regarding the Hong Kong property market.

都會是一個正面的發展

It will be a positive development.

坦白講你提到香港

To be honest, you mentioned Hong Kong.

人口的數字

Population figures

過去有很多

There were many in the past.

過去兩年都是一個

The past two years have been a...

相對比較下滑的趨勢

A relatively declining trend.

如果你說有一些海外的人才

If you say there are some overseas talents.

進來了

Came in.

而且他們通常都會是一些

Moreover, they are usually some...

比較中高收入的人士

Comparing middle and high-income individuals.

長遠來說

In the long term.

對於香港的那個住屋需求

Regarding the housing demand in Hong Kong.

一定是會有幫助的

It will definitely be helpful.

但是我想就算你說

But I want to say, even if you say.

是一些高收入的人士來香港

Some high-income individuals are coming to Hong Kong.

都不會說來香港第一件事

No one will say the first thing to do in Hong Kong.

就立刻要買樓

I want to buy a house right away.

所以我想這個會是一個

So I think this will be a...

更加中長期的一個

A more medium to long-term one.

支撐需求的一個因素

A factor that supports demand.

而多於說是一個短期

It is more about being a short-term.

一宣佈了有這件事

It announced that there was this matter.

就會立刻見到對需求

You will immediately see the demand.

有很明顯的幫助

There is very obvious help.

Sam 講到本地需求

Sam talked about local demand.

剛才你也提到

You just mentioned it earlier.

影響本地需求

Affect local demand.

就是人口的變化

It is the change in population.

以往有些分析去估

In the past, some analyses have estimated.

樓市的未來走向

The future trajectory of the real estate market.

都會看回香港的家庭創造

Will look back at the family creation in Hong Kong.

就是年輕人結婚

It’s just that young people are getting married.

組織家庭

Organizational family

所以需要買樓

So it's necessary to buy a house.

在這方面的變化方面

In terms of changes in this regard.

你們有沒有做這方面的

Do you do work in this area?

分析和預測呢

Analysis and prediction.

有的 有的

Some, some.

其實我們也有統計部

Actually, we also have a statistics department.

你看回香港

Looking back at Hong Kong.

當然我們如果算回

Of course, if we calculate it back…

就像你剛才所說

Just like you said earlier.

Family formation

Family formation

就是所謂新的家庭組成

That is what is called a new family structure.

這個影響

This impact

我們一方面就要看

On one hand, we need to see...

香港整體的人口趨勢是怎樣

What is the overall population trend in Hong Kong?

另外一個很重要的因素

Another very important factor.

其實就是看回平均

Actually, it's about looking back at the average.

香港每戶的人口是多少

What is the population per household in Hong Kong?

你如果看回過去那幾年

If you look back at the past few years.

香港的平均每戶人口

The average household population in Hong Kong.

我們說的是2.9

We are talking about 2.9.

其實跟很多

Actually, it’s like many.

說的是生育率

Speaking of fertility rate.

或者是發展程度

Or it could be the level of development.

跟香港差不多的城市來比較

A city comparable to Hong Kong.

這個平均每戶人口的數字

This is the average number of people per household.

都是偏高的

They are all relatively high.

我們看回說的是東京

We are talking about Tokyo.

或者是首爾

Or it could be Seoul.

這個數字平均會是每戶

This number averages to each household.

只有1.9到2.1個人

Only 1.9 to 2.1 people.

就算我們說的是倫敦

Even if we are talking about London.

或者台北

Or Taipei.

平均都是2.5

The average is 2.5.

所以我們其實透過這個數字來看

So we are actually looking at this number.

實際上都是反映了

In fact, it all reflects.

香港過去那幾年

The past few years in Hong Kong.

因為一個高樓價的情況

Due to a situation of high housing prices.

都是導致有很大量的

It all leads to a very large amount of.

我們叫plan of demand

We call it a plan of demand.

所以我們其實暫時來講

So for now, we actually...

我們的看法就是說

Our opinion is that

如果是一個人口增長相對會比較慢

If the population growth is relatively slower.

甚至乎過去兩年

Even in the past two years.

是一個negative的情況之下

In a negative situation.

其實我們會慢慢見到

Actually, we will slowly see it.

這個平均每戶人口

This is the average population per household.

因為樓價回落

Because property prices have fallen.

多了人可以搬出來

More people can move out.

做一個spin off family

Create a spin-off family.

或者組織家庭

Or organize a family.

買樓搬出來住

Buy a house and move out to live.

而這個人

And this person

這個數字會慢慢回落

This number will gradually decrease.

我們其實現在見到

We actually see it now.

慢慢過去兩年

Slowly passing the last two years.

是由2.9到2.7

It is from 2.9 to 2.7.

2.8以上下的位置

Position above and below 2.8.

如果你說

If you say

當然了

Of course.

如果剛才我們都有提過

If we all mentioned it just now.

移民

Immigrant

一些高材入來香港

Some talented individuals have come to Hong Kong.

可能都會支撐到房屋需求

It may support the demand for housing.

另一方面我們判斷

On the other hand, we judge that...

就是說這個數字

That is to say, this number.

慢慢由2.7

Slowly from 2.7

可能趨向一個比較接近其他城市

It may tend towards being closer to other cities.

譬如我們剛才說的倫敦

For example, London which we just talked about.

是接近2.5這樣的

It's close to 2.5 like this.

其實都可以製造到平均每年

Actually, it can be produced at an average of every year.

我想3萬

I want 30,000.

3萬人口

30,000 population

3萬個房屋的需求

Demand for 30,000 houses.

這個都是一個

This is all one.

可以預測到的數字

Predictable numbers.

剛剛Sam提過

Just now, Sam mentioned.

就是那個數字

That's the number.

每戶的人口

Household population

如果是下降

If it is a decline.

多些人出去買樓

More people are going out to buy houses.

但如果樓價高的話

But if the property prices are high.

就應該少些人出來買樓

There should be fewer people coming out to buy houses.

你怎樣看那個量和價

What do you think about that quantity and price?

那些發展商

Those developers.

最好當然是量和價都有

It's best to have both quantity and price.

買物也是

Shopping too.

但如果可能是追求量

But if it is possible to pursue quantity.

可能價值

Possible value

剛剛頭頭師傅教導的數字

The numbers that Master just taught.

發展商賣樓的時候

When the developer sells apartments.

現在那個折扣算是挺吸引的

That discount is quite attractive right now.

那你怎樣看那個量和價

What do you think about the quantity and the price?

其實那個量上面

Actually, that amount above.

我想現在是一個比較特殊的情況

I think this is a relatively特殊 (special) situation now.

我們還在消化

We are still digesting it.

好像剛才那樣說

It seems to say the same as just now.

消化在去年下半年的一個房屋供應

Digestion of a housing supply in the second half of last year.

正常來說

Normally speaking

我們看回之後每年的房屋供應

Let's look back at the housing supply for each subsequent year.

我想平均都會是一個3、4萬個中間

I think the average would be around 30,000 to 40,000.

所以你回到我們剛才說的

So you return to what we just talked about.

透過我們計出來

Calculated through us.

釋放這個平均住戶人口的一個數字的話

If we release a figure for the average household population.

基本上香港那個樓市

Basically, the property market in Hong Kong.

那個房屋的供應和需求

The supply and demand of that housing.

我們看就應該大概會是一個持平的狀態

We should roughly expect a neutral state.

和過去100年以前

And a hundred years ago.

一個相對比較嚴重的供應短缺的情況

A relatively serious supply shortage situation.

是會有一點點分別的

There will be a slight difference.

所以你如果說是一個房屋的供應和需求

So if you talk about the supply and demand of housing

大致上是平衡的環境之下

Generally, it is under a balanced environment.

你覺得可能那個價錢

What do you think that price might be?

就會是更加受到一些宏觀的因素主導

It will be more influenced by some macro factors.

譬如利率

For example, interest rates.

其實以前我們在說100年前的話

Actually, we were talking about 100 years ago.

那個平均的按揭利率都是在說1.5%左右

The average mortgage rate is usually around 1.5%.

如果現在大家有供樓的都會知道

If everyone who has a mortgage now knows.

可能都已經去到3.1、3.2起

It may have already reached 3.1 or 3.2.

其實你從同一個收入水平來講

Actually, when you consider the same income level.

在不同的利率環境之下

In different interest rate environments.

你可以負擔那個最多的樓價都是有分別的

The maximum property price you can afford varies.

我們其實都有計算過

We have actually all calculated it.

由這個按揭利率由1.5升到3.5

The mortgage interest rate has risen from 1.5 to 3.5.

其實你那個收入水平

Actually, your income level.

那個可承擔的樓價

The affordable housing price.

很自然都會跌了10%至15%左右

It's quite natural that it would drop approximately 10% to 15%.

其實這個也會是我們見到

Actually, this will also be what we see.

講的CCL中原城市指數

The CCL Central Urban Index mentioned.

在去年展現的一個跌幅

A decline demonstrated last year.

所以我們覺得

So we think that...

如果你說未來來講

If you are talking about the future

我們覺得那個房價的一個驅動因素

We believe that is a driving factor for the housing price.

除了電話供應之外

Apart from the telephone supply.

另外一個會比較值得關注的

Another one that is worth paying more attention to.

就是利率的走勢

It is the trend of interest rates.

最後我也想問問Sam短短一點

Lastly, I would like to ask Sam a brief question.

就是利率走勢

It's the trend of interest rates.

你有沒有估計聯儲局

Do you have any estimates for the Federal Reserve?

聯儲局加上今次息之後

After this interest rate by the Federal Reserve.

那個加息的動向

The trend of interest rate hikes.

和香港的息會怎樣走呢

How will the interest rate in Hong Kong move?

我們暫時的判斷都是今年

Our temporary judgment is that it is this year.

就是5月份會加多一次

It will increase once more in May.

之後去到今年年底

After that, it will go to the end of this year.

都應該會大概是一個止停的狀態

It should be roughly a state of stopping.

去到2024年開始就會減少

Starting from 2024, it will decrease.

好 今天謝謝Sam

Okay, thank you Sam today.

謝謝Sam

Thank you, Sam.

好 在節目結束之前

Okay, before the end of the program.

就有一樣想跟大家講講

I have something I want to talk to everyone about.

就是下個星期開始

It starts next week.

我們的節目會重新定位

Our program will be repositioned.

和改名就是《理財新世代》

The renamed title is "New Generation of Financial Management."

大家知道理財

Everyone knows about financial management.

有人說理不理財財不理你

Some say that if you don't pay attention to reason, wealth won't pay attention to you.

所以理財是重要的

So financial management is important.

甚至是比投資更加重要

Even more important than investing.

我們會每一集

We will do it every episode.

請來不同的嘉賓和團體代表

Please invite different guests and representatives from various groups.

跟大家講更多

Tell everyone more.

關於理財的知識和內容

Knowledge and content about financial management.

除了節目名和定位

Besides the program name and positioning.

我們會稍有更改之外

We will make some slight changes.

節目時間都會有更改

The program schedule will be subject to change.

就是會由早上的9點半

It will be from 9:30 in the morning.

到10點半

Until 10:30.

縮短了半個小時

Shortened by half an hour.

下星期六

Next Saturday

我們繼續在FM926

We continue on FM926.

香港電台第一台

Hong Kong Radio 1

和港台電視31台

and Hong Kong and Taiwan Television Channel 31

和大家見面

Meet everyone.

今天就很感謝大家

Thank you all very much today.

收聽和收看《投資新世代》

Listen to and watch "Investment New Generation."

勞動節愉快

Happy Labor Day