有關公投的大小事 2021年封關篇與張國城教授對談【酥餅直播不NG第19集】

酥餅

深音網路廣播

好那我们现在就正式开始

Okay, let’s officially start now.

各位听众朋友各位网友大家平安大家好

Dear listeners and friends online, peace to everyone, and hello!

我是苏炳

I am Su Bing.

现在是台湾时间2021年12月14号的晚上10点半

It is now 10:30 PM on December 14, 2021, Taiwan time.

那今天我们要跟国城兄谈的是有关公投的大小事

Today, we will discuss various matters regarding the referendum with Brother Guocheng.

那因为接下来年底我要出城

That's because I need to go out of town at the end of the year.

所以今天刚好也就是2021年直播的最后一集

So today happens to be the last episode of the 2021 livestream.

国城兄先跟大家问个好吧

Let Brother Guocheng greet everyone first.

主持人各位听众朋友大家晚安大家好

Good evening everyone, dear listeners.

国城兄我们这个礼拜这个周末就要

Brother Guocheng, this weekend we are going to...

台湾有四项公投要进行

Taiwan will hold four referendums.

其实我今天不太想只谈这四个公投

Actually, I don't really want to talk only about these four referendums today.

那你就谈点别的好了

Then you can talk about something else.

因为我后来也觉得这个其实说实话的

Because I later felt that this is actually, to be honest,

我想谈的东西恐怕也充不了一个小时

I'm afraid what I want to discuss won't even last an hour.

我们也不一定要再撑一个小时

We don't necessarily have to hold on for another hour.

谈完就谈完了

Once it's over, it's over.

我的意思是说

What I mean is

我的意思是说公投这个事情我们其实讲了

What I mean is that we have actually talked about the issue of the referendum.

从2012大选过后我第一次遇到国城兄

I met Brother Guocheng for the first time after the 2012 election.

其实我们2012年的7月我来到美国

Actually, I came to the United States in July 2012.

从2012到现在9年了

It has been 9 years from 2012 to now.

其实我们公投是讲陆陆续续讲了9年了

Actually, our referendum has been discussed continuously for 9 years.

那我

Then I

我

我曾经说我们来谈一下公投好了

I once said let's talk about the referendum.

我就去我的脸书搜寻一下我

I'll just search for myself on Facebook.

我我就用公投当作关键字搜寻我自己脸书的贴文

I searched for my own Facebook posts using "referendum" as the keyword.

其实其实公投我已经讲很多了

Actually, I have already talked a lot about the referendum.

所以所以这个在那个我们节目的这个网页

So, on the webpage of our program...

其实下面我就找了一些比较有代表性的的一些有关公投过去的发文了

Actually, below I have found some representative posts regarding the past of the referendum.

这公投的事情我们真的讲很多次了

We have really talked about this referendum many times.

没关系

It's okay.

我们

我先谈一下这个四项公投的事

Let me talk about this matter of the four referendums first.

但是我觉得公投其实不只是周末的四项公投啦

But I think the referendum is not just the four items on the ballot this weekend.

公投其实可以可以演绎出很多事

Referendums can actually elicit many things.

但是问题说这些事我们也都讲过了

But the problem is that we've already talked about these things.

有一点又是风水世家就是了

It's a bit of a family of Feng Shui.

但是年底四项公投

However, there will be four referendums at the end of the year.

因为我现在在美国吗

Because I am in the United States now?

所以我不会回去投啊

So I won't go back to vote.

那我可以问一下国城兄会怎么投吗

Can I ask how Brother Guocheng plans to vote?

嗯

Hmm.

基本上来讲这个四项公投当然还是投四个不同意啊

Basically, we should vote 'no' on all four of these referendums.

他会好这个不过这个我为什么会这样投我等会

He will be fine with this, but why am I投如 this? I'll wait a moment.

这个就这个时间我再跟大家说明

I will explain this to everyone again at this time.

那么没关系

Then it's okay.

那个这个要把主持人就先把这个你的这些想要就是以前我们讲过的东西再让大家回味一下

Well, first the host should let everyone revisit the things we've talked about before.

我我我先这样子好了啦

I'll just do it this way for now.

因为我现在比较看不懂了

Because I can't understand it very well right now.

就是说

That is to say.

到底

After all

到底预测说周末弹出来投出来会有什么结果

What is the prediction for the results of popping out and投出this weekend?

现在谈有没有意义啊

Is it meaningful to talk about it now?

因为我看一下台湾有关公投的民调

Because I want to check the polls on the referendum in Taiwan.

因为公投毕竟不是不是像总统选举或是立委选举或县市长选举吗

Because a referendum is not the same as a presidential election, legislative election, or mayoral election, after all.

在美国他有一个专有名词叫做of ear的election了

In the United States, there is a specific term called "of ear's election."

就是说他不是一个跟主要选举一起进行的

That means he is not one that takes place alongside the main election.

那种of ear的election呢?

What kind of ear election is that?

其实投票意愿

In fact, voting intention.

就是会影响谁胜谁负很重要的一个关键

It is a key factor that will significantly affect who wins and loses.

但是我看台湾目前有关公投的这种民意调查

But I see that the current public opinion polls in Taiwan regarding referendums...

好像有把投票意愿这种东西考虑进去吗?

It seems like the willingness to vote is taken into consideration?

郭成雄觉得呢?

What does Guo Chengxiong think?

我今天看到一个民调是这样的

I saw a poll today that was like this.

不是民调就是一个报上一个报导

It's either a poll or a report in a newspaper.

就是说现在

That means right now.

执政党方面估计大概

The ruling party estimates that approximately...

投票率有可能不过半

The voter turnout may not exceed half.

哦

基本就是说投票率虽然勉强过半

Basically, it means that the voter turnout is barely over half.

但是就是没有到25%

But it just hasn't reached 25%.

就是会到这样OK

It will be like this, OK?

我看到的啦

I saw it!

我觉得不太可能

I think it's unlikely.

但是既然这么说

But since it's said like this

我们就这个就来讨论一下也是可以

We can discuss this as well.

就是最后结果是技术性获胜

The final result is a technical victory.

所以就是民进党这边还是?

So is it still the case with the Democratic Progressive Party?

是希望说可能是因为冷战

It is hoped that it may be due to the Cold War.

但是他自己都在热战了

But he himself is already in a hot war.

他现在又回来期待是冷战的结果

He is back now hoping for the outcome of the Cold War.

我觉得这可能他不是期待了

I don't think he was expecting this.

他就是发现说有可能投票率不是那么高

He just discovered that the turnout rate might not be that high.

所以最后结果就会技术性获胜

So in the end, the result will be a technical victory.

就是虽然这个同意大于不同意

It's just that the agreement outweighs the disagreement.

但是因为投票率不够

But because the voter turnout is insufficient.

所以结果是不通过

So the result is not approved.

对

Yes.

那当然也是有这个可能啦

Of course, that is also a possibility.

所以我觉得

So I think

但是我觉得

But I think

对有些议题来讲的话

In terms of some topics.

如果是出现了这种技术性胜利的结果

If this kind of technical victory result occurs.

其实恐怕对台湾的影响还是一样的

In fact, I'm afraid the impact on Taiwan will still be the same.

譬如说你说台租这件事情

For example, you mention the issue of the venue rental.

如果你是因为技术性的胜利

If you are because of a technological victory.

所以导致于说你并没有被否决掉

So it leads to the conclusion that you were not rejected.

就是还是不同意反台租

I still disagree with the rental of Taiwan.

但是如果说你这个同意票大于不同意票

But if your votes in favor are greater than the votes against.

就是国民党那边的主张

It is the position of the Kuomintang.

这个胜过民进党的主张的话

This statement surpasses the Democratic Progressive Party's claims.

那你想想看

Then think about it.

这个等于还是你政策的失败啊

This is still a failure of your policy.

是啊

Yeah.

你还是

You still are.

你不可能说因为

You can't say because.

就是你没有说服民众嘛

It's just that you didn't convince the public.

对你就继续进口嘛

Just continue to import for you then.

这不可能嘛

This is impossible.

那这个

Then this.

而且这个已经这么大型的民意调查

Moreover, this already large-scale public opinion survey

之后老实说我觉得

Honestly, after that, I feel...

你不可能硬干

You can't force it.

所以最后结果这个

So the final result is this.

不知道美国或者是

I don't know about the United States or...

国际社会怎么看你

How does the international community view you?

我觉得那个

I think that.

观感

Visual experience

不会有

There won't be any.

太大变化

Too big a change.

就是你

It's you.

第一个你没有能力

The first one you don't have the ability.

你的说服民众的这个过程还是失败

Your process of persuading the public has still failed.

那

That

实质上来讲

In essence.

这种公投结果老实讲你恐怕也不敢

Honestly, you might not dare to accept the results of this referendum either.

这个真的

This is really.

这个

This

继续说你要支持这个东西

Continue to say that you want to support this thing.

因为民意很明显已经反对了

Because public opinion has clearly turned against it.

所以

我觉得说

I think that saying

基本上如果是这种技术性胜利的话

Basically, if it's a technical victory like this.

那

That

对台湾会有的负面影响

Negative impacts on Taiwan.

我讲的是会有的负面影响

I am talking about the potential negative impact.

因为

Because

有些现在讲的那些负面影响

Some of the negative impacts being discussed now.

我认为也是夸大其词

I also think it's an exaggeration.

我个人是

I personally am

这个要投不同意的

This requires a different vote of disapproval.

这个我可以先讲

I can talk about this first.

我要投不同意

I want to vote "disagree."

但是

But

我认为有些

I think some.

这个对于说你如果不进口来租

This is about saying if you don't import it, you can rent it.

对台湾的影响我认为是夸大其词

I believe that the impact on Taiwan is exaggerated.

那这些夸大其词的宣传

Then what about these exaggerated promotions?

我认为其实是别有用心的

I think there are actually ulterior motives.

这个对

This is correct.

台湾或者是对

Taiwan or it is right.

台湾跟美国的关系或者是对说

Taiwan's relationship with the United States or speaking about it.

民进党本身

The Democratic Progressive Party itself.

我认为那个影响

I think that influence.

伤害

Harm

也不会小到哪里去

It won't be too small either.

但

But

台湾现在就是

Taiwan is now.

只要是好像结论对了

As long as it seems the conclusion is correct.

可以容许许多错误或者是

Can allow for many mistakes or...

不合逻辑的论述

Illogical argumentation

不是结论对立场对了

It's not that the conclusion is correct, but that the stance is right.

只要立场对了逻辑就不重要了

As long as the stance is correct, logic becomes unimportant.

事实也不重要了

The facts no longer matter.

甚至你用错误的方法

Even if you use the wrong method.

最后结果就是导出正确的答案

The final result is to export the correct answer.

这个就好像什么样

What is this similar to?

就好像以前国中的时候考证明题

It's like when we had to solve proof questions back in middle school.

那其实说实话就很多同学

To be honest, many students actually...

包括我自己在那里说

Including myself speaking there.

真的是证明不出来

It really can't be proven.

不会嘛

No way.

那最后结果就只好

So in the end, the result can only be...

在最后两行

In the last two lines.

我就是把那个结果抄下来

I just copied that result down.

然后就写得证

Then write the proof.

然后中间其实是乱证

Then in the middle, it’s actually a mess.

怕老师没有注意看

Afraid the teacher is not paying attention.

读老师没有注意看

The teacher did not pay attention.

蒙到一点分数

Gained a few points by luck.

那实际上是证不出来的啦

That can’t actually be proven.

没有过程不正确其实是证不出来

Without a correct process, it cannot actually be proven.

但是反正是证明题嘛

But it's a proof problem anyway.

最后结果你还是证不出来啦

In the end, you still can't prove it.

还是说固如何如何

Or say, "what about Gu?"

就把那个抄一遍

Just copy that down.

然后就写得证

Then write the certificate.

看有没有帮我装到一点分数

See if you can help me score a few points.

我认为啊

I think that...

现在其实

Actually now

这个

This

民进党或者是

Democratic Progressive Party or

不是整个民进党也不是整个政府

Not the entire DPP nor the entire government.

但是

But

相当多的人在宣传这些议题的时候

A significant number of people promote these issues.

也不只是这些公投的议题

It's not just the issues of these referendums.

而是许许多多政治的议题

But rather many political issues.

甚至跟台湾的

Even with Taiwan's.

公共政策跟台湾的安全非常有关的议题

Public policy is a topic closely related to Taiwan's security.

都是用这种方法

It's all done using this method.

那

That

而且这种方法

Moreover, this method

这种

This kind of

作为我觉得这几年来有变本加厉的趋势

I feel that there has been an escalating trend in recent years.

那这是我整个看这件事情来讲

Then this is my overall perspective on this matter.

我觉得今天

I think today

我想要跟大家讲的

What I want to tell everyone.

第一件事情

The first thing.

是

Yes

我

我是这样看啦因为

I see it this way because

现在

Now

说一定要

It must be said.

投不同意来租的

I don't agree to rent it.

我觉得有几个宣传的基调

I think there are several tones for the promotion.

那第一个基调是归类于不合逻辑啦

The first tone is classified as illogical.

就是你一方面说

It’s just that on one hand you say...

说啊

Speak up.

进口来租怎样怎样

How to rent imported goods.

但是一方面又保证什么

But on the one hand, it guarantees something.

小学不吃啦幼稚园不吃啦

No more eating in elementary school, no more eating in kindergarten.

学校不吃啦军人不吃啦

The school doesn't eat, and the soldiers don't eat.

政府机关不吃啦

Government agencies don't eat anymore.

大家都不吃啦

Everyone is not eating.

然后又说什么啊

Then what else did you say?

反正开放了也没人进口啦

Anyway, even if it's open, no one is importing it.

但是这些说辞

But these excuses

听起来就是来租有问题嘛

It sounds like renting has some issues.

不是吗

Isn't it?

然后

Then

然后第二个

Then the second one.

不合逻辑的就是说

What is illogical to say is...

你又常常用一些

You often use some again.

比如说

For example,

你不管谢隆介是怎么样的人啊

It doesn't matter what kind of person Xie Longjie is to you.

他就说什么吃来猪搞完会缩小

He said that eating will make the pig shrink after it’s finished.

问题是

The question is

你对他有效的反驳应该是

Your effective rebuttal to him should be

吃来猪搞完不会缩小嘛

Eating the pig won't make it smaller, right?

但是你又不是你说

But you are not what you say.

所以你就是吃了来猪才对中国软弱

So you are the one who ate the pig to weaken China.

那你不是等于承认说

Then you are essentially admitting that...

吃来猪搞完真的会缩小吗

Eating pork really makes you shrink?

这就很奇怪的一些回应方法

This is quite a strange way of responding.

这是属于不合逻辑的部分

This is the illogical part.

但是第二个部分呢

But what about the second part?

看起来比较像是

It looks more like.

逻辑上比较对上

Logically it makes more sense.

就说那个什么

Just say that thing.

一定要

Must be.

开放来猪啦

Open the gate for the pig!

不然美国会制裁台湾啊

Otherwise, the United States will sanction Taiwan.

不然台湾的经济

Otherwise, Taiwan's economy.

那个

That one.

国际组织

International organization

一定没有办法加入啦

There is definitely no way to join.

问题是

The question is.

你来猪要不要开放

Do you want to open the pig?

美国一定会不会一定要制裁你

The United States will definitely not have to sanction you.

其实这个东西也没有这么简单

Actually, this thing is not that simple.

我认为美国

I think America.

就我自己在美国

Just me in the United States.

这么久我自己现在也有美国人这个身份

It's been so long that I now also have the identity of an American.

我认为美国人是讲道理的

I believe Americans are reasonable people.

就说你

Just say you.

要不要开放

Should we open up?

你一以贯之

You are consistent.

有一个合理的说法

There is a reasonable saying.

美国也是民主国家

The United States is also a democratic country.

难道他的政治人物不知道说

Doesn't his politician know how to speak?

你台湾的政治人物要面对民意吗

Do politicians in Taiwan have to face public opinion?

问题不是啊

The problem is not that.

你

You

你是你总统

You are your president.

之前反来猪之后

After the pig came back before.

突然就答应说来猪开放进口没问题

Suddenly agreed to say that there is no problem with importing pigs.

你现在又要回去

You're going back again now.

美国不能忍受的是你没有办法一以贯之不守信用嘛

What the United States can't tolerate is that you are unable to consistently keep your promises.

对不对

Right or not?

我认为主要是这个问题嘛

I think this is the main issue.

那至于说你不守信用之后

As for you breaking your promise afterwards...

美国要怎么看待你

How should the United States view you?

这个其实之前我们在美牛的时候就已经谈过

We actually discussed this before when we were at Meiniu.

那就真的是9年前就谈过的事情

That was indeed something that was discussed nine years ago.

所以美国要看的就是说你这个政治人物到底

So what the United States wants to see is what kind of political figure you really are.

你答应我的事有没有办法做好吗

Is there any way you can fulfill the promise you made to me?

你如果连个猪肉都没有办法做好

If you can't even cook a piece of pork well.

那我怎么信任你说在这种更大的

Then how can I trust you when you say in this larger context?

两岸议题上你答应我的事你做好呢

Have you fulfilled what you promised me regarding the cross-strait issues?

那我就从此评估台湾的事情我就要

Then I will have to evaluate the situation in Taiwan from now on.

根据说台湾的政治人物是没有办法

According to what is said, Taiwanese politicians have no way.

讲的话是不算话的

What is said doesn't count.

我就要把这个当做一个我考虑事情的前提嘛

I will take this as a premise for my consideration.

主要是这个样子

It's mainly like this.

但是现在

But now

这个第2部分的论述讲了

This part of the discussion talks about.

好像美国是一个很压坝的什么流氓一样

It seems like America is a very oppressive rogue in some way.

逼你一定要怎样

Forcing you to do something.

问题是

The question is

莱猪美国人也吃啊

Even American pigs eat.

对不对

Right or not?

美国人他也不是说

The American is not saying either.

己所不欲

What you do not want for yourself.

勿施于人

Do not impose on others.

他也不是说己所不欲施于你啊

He is not saying to impose on you what he does not want for himself.

就说莱猪美国也是

Just say that the pig in America is the same.

按照国际标准开放嘛

Open according to international standards, right?

那问题就是说

The question is then decir.

你自己不守信用吗

Aren't you keeping your promise?

我认为这还是重点嘛

I think this is still the重点.

国城兄觉得呢

What does Guocheng think?

我都同意啦

I agree with everything.

我认为莱猪这个问题就是

I believe the issue with Lai Zhu is that...

就是现在来讲大概是

It's about right now.

争议最多的议题之一啦

One of the most controversial topics.

我认为第1个就是

I think the first one is.

当然就是那个一致性的问题

Of course, it's the issue of consistency.

以前反对莱牛嘛

Did you used to oppose the cattle?

现在这个支持莱猪嘛

Does it support Lái zhū now?

那这个当然

Well, of course.

可以解释说第1个是当时可能

It can be explained that the first one was possibly at that time.

质询不足

Insufficient inquiry.

然后这个

Then this

这个

This

国际组织也认为说

International organizations also believe that

是不能有减除

It cannot be reduced.

所以当时

So at that time

打了国际组织的主张

It struck the claims of international organizations.

但是也不是这样啊

But it's not like that.

就说Codex已经有标准之后

Just saying that Codex already has standards.

民进党在立法院还是反对

The Democratic Progressive Party is still opposed in the Legislative Yuan.

还是投效反对票啊

Still voting against it, huh?

这个是历史事实啊

This is a historical fact.

这个

This

所以我认为第1个就是这种

So I think the first one is this kind.

一致性的问题啦

The issue of consistency.

那老实说这个一致性的问题

Well, to be honest, this issue of consistency.

其实是没有办法解决的

In fact, there is no way to solve it.

所以

因为毕竟以前讲过了

Because it has been mentioned before.

那现在

So now

这个所以我认为

So I think.

我比较担心的一点

One point that I am more concerned about.

就是说

That is to say.

现在

Now

支持莱猪

Support Lai Pig

国民党那边说反莱猪对不对

The Kuomintang said that opposing the import of American pork is correct.

那国民党反莱猪那当然他们就是说了一大堆理由嘛

The Kuomintang opposed the import of American pork, and of course, they gave a whole bunch of reasons for it.

食安的理由嘛

The reason for food safety, right?

然后呢他们用一个理由

Then they used a reason.

就是说其实他们

That means, in fact, they...

不认为说反莱猪就会遭到

I don't think that saying "anti-Lai pig" will lead to遭到.

美国或者是国际间

United States or international.

经贸的制裁

Economic and trade sanctions.

那这个民进党

So this Democratic Progressive Party.

这边呢其实我认为说支持要进口莱猪

I actually think that support should be given to the import of American pigs.

我认为只要强调一个简单的道理就好

I believe it's enough to emphasize a simple truth.

就是它是一种合法而且无害的商品

It is a legal and harmless product.

没错

That's right.

对这个就好了

That's enough for this.

就是这个是一个合法

This is a legal one.

问题是他自己的说法

The problem is his own statement.

就自打嘴巴嘛

Just slap yourself on the mouth.

就是说

That is to say.

如果我们强调

If we emphasize

这是一个合法而无害的商品

This is a legal and harmless product.

纵使最后结果还是被人民否决了

Even if the final result is still rejected by the people.

至少你转过头去

At least you turned your head.

你可以跟美国交代说

You can explain to the United States that...

的确我至少的价值上我是站在你这边

Indeed, at least in terms of value, I stand on your side.

就是

Just is.

我认同说你这是一个

I agree to say that you are a...

合法而且是无害的商品

Legal and harmless goods.

而且我也帮你宣传了

And I also helped promote it for you.

我也帮你宣传这是合法无害

I will also help you promote that this is legal and harmless.

但是问题是现在的资讯不是这样啊

But the problem is that the information now is not like this.

就是我说看第一群的资讯

I mean the information from the first group.

你就自己在那边自打嘴巴嘛

You can just slap yourself over there.

合法无害为什么军队不吃

If it's legal and harmless, why doesn't the military consume it?

照说不是应该军队

Shouldn't it be the army?

优先购买吗

Do you want to buy it first?

所以

所以我的意思就是说

So what I mean is that

我常常觉得很多人

I often feel that many people

就是

That's it.

在

在台湾就是支持或者是

In Taiwan, it's either support or...

这个

this

一种主张或者是反对一种主张

A proposition or opposition to a proposition.

经常是用错误的方法

Often use the wrong method.

这个错误的方法其实对这个议题的本身是有害的

This erroneous approach is actually harmful to the issue itself.

那如果是不知道这一点我认为是笨

Then if you don't know this, I think it's foolish.

如果是知道这点还这样我认为是

If you know this and still act this way, I think it is...

没有用心

Not making an effort.

那好这个来说的问题就是说

Well, the question to bring up this is that

我认为第一个就是说这是一个

I think the first thing to say is that this is a...

合法而且无害的商品

Legal and harmless goods.

那所以呢

So what?

我们就强调这一点就好了

We just need to emphasize this point.

那最后结果纵使失败

Even if the final result is failure.

那至少也可以

That at least is acceptable.

像美国方面或者是像全世界交代说我们

Like the United States or telling the whole world that we...

支持合法而无害的商品进口

Support the import of legal and harmless goods.

那没有办法说服人民

Then there is no way to convince the people.

那这个是我们的问题

Then this is our problem.

但至少在价值上

But at least in terms of value.

我们是

We are

正确就是

Correct is

支持无害而合法的商品

Support harmless and legal products.

但是呢

But then

政府呢就是第一个不断的强调说军队不吃

The government is the first to keep emphasizing that the army does not eat.

营养午餐不吃饭

Nutritional lunch without rice.

所以这本身已经没有办法

So there is no way to change this situation.

对于说这是一个合法而无害的商品

It is said that this is a legal and harmless product.

做一个充分的支撑

Provide full support.

你自己也怀疑吧

You probably doubt it yourself too.

不止不是

Not only is it not

这不是等于政府带头背革吗

Isn't this equivalent to the government leading the way in backing the revolution?

不是吗

Isn't it?

那当然他又讲一堆理由说

Of course, he went on to give a bunch of reasons.

这个军队啊或者是营养午餐

This army or the nutritious lunch.

当然优先以什么国产猪肉

Of course, prioritize domestic pork.

这个为主

This is the main point.

但是呢

But...

这个本身来讲不能够完全解释这个问题

This alone cannot fully explain the issue.

因为

Because

如果说呢你是一个合法而无害的商品

If you are a legal and harmless product.

那理论上来讲他就应该跟国产猪肉有同样的

In theory, it should be the same as domestic pork.

市场地位

Market position

也应该得到同等的待遇

Should also receive equal treatment.

这才叫自由贸易

This is what is called free trade.

这才叫公平贸易

This is what is called fair trade.

至少在某种状况之下他应该是选项啊

At least under certain circumstances, he should be an option.

你现在是说他绝对不能成为选项嘛

Are you saying that he absolutely cannot be an option?

对对对

Yes, yes, yes.

这听我讲完

Listen to me finish讲完.

所以呢基本上他意思就是说他既然

So basically, what he means is that since he...

被排除也不是选项

Being excluded is not an option.

那老实讲

To be honest,

美国方面可能也会质疑你

The United States may also question you.

他既然

Since he...

要自由贸易

To have free trade.

要公平进口

Fair importation is needed.

那为什么他不能成为你政府采购的选项

Then why can't he be one of your options for government procurement?

那这个恐怕也会有

Then I'm afraid there will also be this.

国际经贸上的问题

Issues in international economic and trade affairs.

是啊

Yeah.

WTO或者什么也会

WTO or something will do as well.

对你的政府的这种

This kind of attitude towards your government.

采购如果你不采购外国商品

If you don't purchase foreign goods.

不给外国商品公平的采购或竞标待遇的话

If foreign goods are not given fair procurement or bidding treatment.

你这还是贸易保护嘛

This is still trade protectionism.

没错啊

That's right.

你还是这个贸易的门槛

You are still the threshold of this trade.

你还是非关税障碍

You are still a non-tariff barrier.

这就是很明显的非关税障碍

This is a very obvious non-tariff barrier.

对不对你政府采购

Is it correct for your government procurement?

有所偏袒这不是非关税障碍

Having favoritism is not a non-tariff barrier.

这是什么

What is this?

对啊是啊

Yeah, that's right.

所以老实说

So honestly speaking.

第一个就是你采取这个政策

The first is that you implement this policy.

这个虽然你说保障国产猪肉

Although you said it ensures domestic pork.

但是你说保障国产猪肉就正成了你是非关税障碍

But if you say that protecting domestic pork is indeed becoming a non-tariff barrier for you.

是啊

Yes.

而且你政府又不采购啊

Furthermore, your government is not making any purchases.

所以你说

So you said.

如果你相信说这种

If you believe in saying this

对莱猪的不公平待遇会导致台湾对外经贸障碍的话

Unfair treatment of Lai Pork would lead to obstacles in Taiwan's foreign trade and economy.

你现在猜政府的做法也是会啊

You could also guess the government's actions now.

所以我的意思就是

So what I mean is

就是说

That is to say.

这个

This

这样讲当然是非常逆风啊

Of course, speaking like this is very counterproductive.

所以各位听众如果心脏不够强

So, dear listeners, if your hearts are not strong enough...

那还是说你是网军

Then it still means you are an internet troll.

老实讲

To be honest

网军可以回去报告了

The cyber army can go back and report now.

不用那么累了

No need to be so tired.

这个台要加班不用了

This shift doesn't require overtime anymore.

网军就直接报告说

The cyber army directly reported that

这个我们两个人

This is for the two of us.

对这一点是有意见的

There are opinions on this matter.

这没有关系

It doesn't matter.

我这个可以具名

I can put my name to this.

我觉得我认为政府

I think I believe the government.

不让

Not allowed.

这个坚决表示说不给军队吃不给营养午餐

This firmly indicates that the military will not be provided with food or nutritious lunches.

这个有

This has.

他会有这个

He will have this.

非关税障碍的疑虑

Concerns about non-tariff barriers.

而且呢

Moreover,

也对于证明莱猪是安全而无害的商品

Also to prove that the Laizhu is a safe and harmless product.

有负面的作用

Has a negative effect.

是啊

Yes.

这我绝对具名讲这没有什么

I can definitely say that there’s nothing to it.

好所以各位网军如果在听可以下班

Okay, so all the internet warriors, if you are listening, you can clock out now.

这个

This

就回去就今天就讲到这个了

Let's stop here for today.

那

That

第二个意思就是说

The second meaning is that...

我认为啊

I think that...

这个有人说你这个

Someone said this about you.

莱猪如果你没有进口会妨碍台湾加入CPTPP

If you don't import pork, it will hinder Taiwan's accession to the CPTPP.

还是说会成为什么国际经贸的孤儿

Or will it become an orphan in international trade and economics?

老实说

Honestly speaking

如果你这个被否决了

If you are vetoed on this.

但是的一个月或者是

But it’s one month or...

半年内我敢保证

I can guarantee within six months.

第一个

The first one.

对加入CPTPP变性根本不会有任何影响

Joining the CPTPP will fundamentally have no impact on transformation.

因为CPTPP这件事情老实讲就算没有来租或者是我们进口来租

To be honest, regarding the CPTPP, whether we rent from abroad or import, it doesn't matter.

现在状况恐怕台湾还是进不了

The current situation may prevent Taiwan from entering.

台湾还是进不了

Taiwan still cannot enter.

我觉得这个问题是什么

I think the question is what.

就是说

That is to say.

就跟马来九当年一模一样

Just like Malaysia's Nine back in the day.

马来九当年欺骗大家说要签ECFA的时候

Back then, Ma Lai Jiudang deceived everyone by saying he would sign the ECFA.

他也是这样说啊

He said the same thing.

他说

He said.

有了ECFA台湾经济才会有成长

Only with ECFA can Taiwan's economy grow.

成长才能5%

Growth can only be 5%.

然后呢有了ECFA才方便我们跟其他国家签订更多的FTA

Only after the ECFA was established can we conveniently sign more FTAs with other countries.

证明了他完全是胡说八道

Proved that he is completely talking nonsense.

因为这本来就是分开的事情

Because this was originally two separate matters.

这根本没有必然性

There is no inevitability to this at all.

那

That

难道那这个我们

Could it be that this is us?

这个还要重蹈这种覆车吗

Do we have to repeat such a mistake?

还是说

Still say.

甘于跟这种说谎的这种政治人物为伍呢

Willing to associate with this kind of lying politician?

因为你CPTPP这件事情老实说

Because of your CPTPP matter, to be honest,

第一个你要跟

The first one you need to follow.

各国分别

Each country respectively

自伤

Self-harm

那现在来讲跟各国分别自伤

Now let's talk about harming oneself separately from each country.

就我今天看自由时报也只跟九个国家有非正式的自伤

From what I saw in the Liberty Times today, it only has informal self-harm agreements with nine countries.

根本可以说是还没有起步

It can be said that it hasn't even started yet.

那第二个就是说中国会不会背革

The second question is whether China will undergo a change in leadership.

中国会不会发动别的国家背革

Will China launch a revolution in other countries?

老实讲

Honestly speaking.

我认为说我对中国是一点

I think that saying I have a point about China.

都没有信心的

None of them have confidence.

我对中国的恶意是完全

I have complete malice towards China.

不怀疑的

Undoubtedly.

所以各位网军如果有在听可以回去报告一下

So if the internet soldiers are listening, you can go back and report.

我对中国的恶意是毫不怀疑的

I have no doubt about my malice towards China.

所以

换句话说这件事情

In other words, this matter.

不管莱猪贸易如何

No matter how the pig trade goes.

本身就不应该加入讨论

Shouldn't have been part of the discussion in the first place.

这怎么会有关系

How could this be related?

就是不管怎样就是困难重重

No matter what, it is full of challenges.

我们不要说一定不会

Let's not say it definitely won't happen.

但是这个东西因为台湾的国际地位

But this thing is because of Taiwan's international status.

因为跟

Because with

因为有中国这个

Because of China this

充满恶意的邻国

Malicious neighboring country

你本来就是困难重重

You were always faced with difficulties.

那不然今天

Otherwise, today.

你今天要做连结的话那很简单压军令状啊

If you want to make a connection today, it's very simple—just sign the military order.

今天如果说我们

Today, if we say we...

我们那个

Our that

莱猪不同意

Lai Pig disagrees.

这个东西守住了

This thing has been kept safe.

一年或是两年内

Within one or two years.

加入某一个经贸组织吗

Join a certain economic and trade organization?

没有的话某个政治人物退出政坛

If not, a certain political figure will withdraw from the political arena.

或是下台

Or step down.

那就不可能了

That's impossible then.

那这个是

Then this is

要不要压嘛

Should we press it?

就是你要把这做连结你就出来压

You just need to make this connection, and then you can come out and press.

这个不可能压

This is impossible to press.

然后呢

What then?

我认为还有一点

I think there is one more thing.

就是说

That is to say.

这个CPTPP这件事情

This CPTPP matter.

第一个中国的恶意

The first malice of China.

所以根本上这件事情跟莱猪根本没有关系

So fundamentally, this matter has nothing to do with Lai Zhu at all.

第二个

The second one.

恐怕

I'm afraid.

CPTPP这件事情

The matter of CPTPP.

就是说你台湾要进一步跟国际间有更紧密的经贸连结

It means that Taiwan wants to further strengthen its economic and trade connections with the international community.

恐怕你自己要先面对的就是说你跟中国

I'm afraid the first thing you have to face is your relationship with China.

自己的经贸连结过于密切

The economic and trade connections are too close.

所以到时候会不会变成说

So will it end up being said that...

如果全世界

If the whole world

在经贸上跟中国

In terms of economic and trade relations with China.

这个

This

有所壁垒

There are barriers.

比如说美国

For example, the United States.

这个台湾会不会有被那种读完条款去

Will this Taiwan be subject to those kinds of terms when completed?

这个遭到连带波及的问题

This issue has been affected as well.

也就是说

That is to say.

你台湾会不会在国际上反而被认为是

Will you be seen as... in the international community?

说是跟中国过于关系密切的一个经济体

It is said to be an economy that is closely related to China.

是否会因为中国的经贸政策影响你台湾本身的自由贸易政策

Will China's economic and trade policies affect Taiwan's own free trade policies?

所以导致你根本没有办法加入CPTPP

So it makes it impossible for you to join the CPTPP.

或任何国际组织

or any international organization

恐怕是你自己先要去检讨说你跟中国的关系是不是太密切

I'm afraid you need to reflect on whether your relationship with China is too close.

而不是先去看看说你这个莱猪的问题

Instead of going to check and see what's wrong with your "pig" issue.

因为我认为是没有关系

Because I think it doesn't matter.

因为我

Because I

其实莱猪

Actually, it’s a pig.

除了

Except for

我说第一个

I say the first one.

蔡政府出了那种不合逻辑的第一类之外

Besides the illogical first type produced by the Tsai government.

第二类

Second category

我其实最近看到一个就是说蔡英文说

I recently saw a report saying that Tsai Ing-wen said...

一定要

Must be

莱猪一定要投不同意

The pig must definitely vote against it.

不然我们会回到过去经济值所在中国的状态

Otherwise, we will return to the state of economic value that exists in China.

什么叫做过去经济值所在中国

What is meant by the economic value of the past in China?

蔡英文执政五年

Tsai Ing-wen has been in power for five years.

台湾对中国的经济依赖

Taiwan's economic dependence on China.

是有史以来最高

It is the highest in history.

那种

That kind

贸易额是有史以来最大

The trade volume is the largest in history.

也大幅成长

Also grew significantly.

什么叫过去

What is called the past?

台湾在蔡英文执政五年所在中国的状况是越来越明显

The situation in China has become increasingly evident during Tsai Ing-wen's five years in power in Taiwan.

有时候你看

Sometimes you look.

我觉得是这样

I think it is this way.

第一个

The first

台湾为什么

Why Taiwan?

过度所在中国

Over-reliance is in China.

老实讲

Honestly speaking

这个我

This I

倒要帮蔡英文讲句公道话

I have to speak fairly for Tsai Ing-wen.

我认为不能完全怪蔡英文

I believe that Tsai Ing-wen cannot be wholly blamed.

是啦

Yes.

他也没那么厉害

He's not that impressive either.

对啦

That's right.

这个事也不是他造成的

This matter was not caused by him either.

老实说我觉得

To be honest, I think...

没有可救

There is no rescue.

谁来执政

Who will govern?

我觉得

I think.

绑中国都绑太紧了

Binding China too tightly.

现在就算这个绑的程度减少一半也都还是太紧了

Even if the tightness is reduced by half now, it is still too tight.

但是我要讲的不是这个

But what I want to talk about is not this.

我要讲的是说

What I want to talk about is...

总统他说

The president said.

如果你投不同意

If you vote against it.

就等于是回到过去所在中国

It's like going back to where I was in China in the past.

我认为这反而好像是一种

I think this seems to be a kind of...

怎么讲

How to say it?

就是说

That is to say

一种预言

A kind of prophecy

或者是说一种

Or it can be said to be a kind.

政策的宣誓

Oath of Policy

也就是说如果你礼拜六投出来

That is to say, if you cast your vote on Saturday.

投出来

Throw it out.

是不同意多于同意

It is more disagreement than agreement.

那最后结果呢

So what is the final result?

台湾继续绑在中国

Taiwan continues to be tied to China.

你就不要怪我了

Don't blame me anymore.

就非这样不可了

It has to be this way.

或者是说

Or rather, say

当然我刚才已经讲了

Of course, I just mentioned it.

这不能完全怪他了

This cannot be entirely blamed on him.

也不能完全怪政府

We can't completely blame the government either.

但是我认为这种讲法就是说

But I think this way of speaking means that

好啦你如果不同意多过同意

Alright, if you disagree more than you agree.

那我们就回到过去

Then let's go back to the past.

打针就对了

Just get the injection.

打预防针啊

Get vaccinated.

就说如果不同意之后

Just say what happens if you disagree afterwards.

我认为这搞不好不是打针

I don't think this is really about getting a shot.

这搞不好是一种政策的宣誓

This might be a pledge of a policy.

预言

Prophecy

政策的宣誓啊

The oath of the policy.

就是说

That is to say

到时候呢

When the time comes?

不通过嘛

Not approved?

不同意嘛

Disagree?

所以最后结果你进不去CPTPP

So in the end, you won't be able to join the CPTPP.

你得不到美国的支持

You will not get support from the United States.

所以最后结果你就甘心

So in the end, you accept the result.

守在中国

Guarding in China

这也是无可奈何的事情

This is also an unavoidable matter.

反而没有责任

On the contrary, there is no responsibility.

反而是没有责任

On the contrary, there is no responsibility.

也就是说

That is to say.

政府

Government

应该要做的事情是说

What needs to be done is to say.

我怎么样能够尽量减少

How can I minimize as much as possible?

绑在中国这件事情

The matter tied to China.

但是呢

But then

现在来讲我听到反而是一种宿命论

What I hear now is actually a form of fatalism.

就是说呢

That is to say.

你现在如果不同意多过

If you don't agree now, you will have to do more.

不同意多过不同意了

Disagreeing more than agreeing.

那么就回到过去绑在中国

Then let's go back to the past, tied to China.

意思就是说

What it means is that.

没机会啦

No chance.

就是非绑在中国不可

It just can't be separated from China.

实际上来讲就算同意多过于不同意

In fact, it means agreeing more than disagreeing.

难道就不能够继续采取一些作为

Can't we continue to take some actions?

让我们不要绑在中国吗

Let's not be tied to China, shall we?

这两个也没关系嘛

These two are also not a problem.

说实在的

To be honest.

对啊

Yeah.

也就是说

That is to say

你就算不进来租

Even if you don't come in to rent.

同意多过不同意

Agree more than disagree.

老实说难道政府就应该要停下脚步

To be honest, shouldn't the government stop progressing?

不要继续去

Don't continue to go.

让台湾不要绑在中国吗

Don't let Taiwan be tied to China?

那问题就是说其实

That question means, in fact,

其实从来也没有人

In fact, no one has ever.

对让我讲完一下

Let me finish speaking.

就算同意多过不同意

Even if the agreement is more than the disagreement.

难道台湾就一定

Is Taiwan really necessary?

只有绑在中国这条路吗

Is there only this path tied to China?

一定没有

Definitely not.

你说

You say.

同意多于不同意难道你对美的经贸就停掉了吗

Do you mean to say that your agreement outweighs your disagreement, and have you stopped engaging in economic and trade matters related to beauty?

你就不能继续对美国开创别的贸易吗

Can't you continue to create other trades with the United States?

你就不能够继续新南向吗

Can't you continue the New Southbound Policy?

对不对

Is that right?

所以

我觉得

I think.

这个

This

我听了这个反而是觉得很

I actually feel very... after listening to this.

不是滋味啦

It's not a good feeling.

就是觉得很危险啦

I just feel that it's very dangerous.

第一个就是

The first one is

他不是事实嘛

Isn't he a fact?

过去这两个字不是事实嘛

Aren't the words "the past" not a fact?

你如果今天用各种经济客观的指标

If you use various objective economic indicators today

你台湾绑在中国的现象最近

The phenomenon of Taiwan being tied to China recently.

近来

Recently

蔡英文执政的这五年是高峰啊

The five years of Tsai Ing-wen's administration have been a peak.

这不是过去啊

This is not the past.

第二个就是

The second is

我同意国城兄说的啊

I agree with what Brother Guocheng said.

你来租就算说

You can just say you're renting.

同意高于不同意

Agreement outweighs disagreement.

难道就一定只能锁在中国吗

Can it really only be locked in China?

你这个是在

What are you doing?

是在暗示什么

What is it implying?

是不是

Isn't it?

难道就是这样吗我不觉得啊

Is it really like this? I don't think so.

因为

Because

你台湾跟美国的农产品贸易

Taiwan's agricultural product trade with the United States.

也只占台湾跟美国贸易的百分之

Only accounts for a percentage of trade between Taiwan and the United States.

好像五还是十

It seems to be five or ten.

不多啦

Not much.

就很少的一个比例嘛

It's just a very small proportion.

对啦所以

That's right, so...

这个我觉得说

I think this is worth mentioning.

这样讲

In this way.

我觉得总统可能是一种

I think the president might be a kind of...

我不会讲啊

I can't speak.

有的时候人讲多了会变成事实啦

Sometimes when people talk too much, it will turn into a fact.

要不然也就是

Otherwise, it's just that.

就是说

That is to say.

这就是表示说如果你同意多过不同意的话

This means that if you agree more than you disagree.

那你就会回到过去重新锁在中国啦

Then you will return to the past and be locked in China again.

那这个

Then this

老实说呢这个就算同意不过于不同意我们还是要尽量争取说

To be honest, even if we don't fully agree, we still need to try our best to advocate for it.

不要让他锁在中国啦

Don't let him be locked in China!

因为

Because

第一个是这些事情还是有很多可以努力的空间

The first is that there is still a lot of room for improvement in these matters.

第二个就算同意多过不同意

The second one agrees more than disagrees.

对美的经贸也不可能完全停止

Economic and trade relations with the US cannot be completely stopped either.

不可能完全停止的话那当然就也

If it's impossible to completely stop, then of course...

不见得会完全锁在中国

It may not be completely locked in China.

除非是说

Unless it's said

你现在

You now.

同意多于不同意了

More agree than disagree.

对不对

Right or wrong?

然后呢就有人失败主义跑出来了

Then, someone with a defeatist attitude came out.

就是说他那算了啦

That means he's just going to let it go.

那美国这

So in America this

反正这一个

Anyway, this one.

这条路已经断掉了

This road has been cut off.

那我们干脆就是

Then we simply are.

认真经营中国

Earnestly manage China.

乖乖的接受说还是回到中国

obediently accept that it’s better to return to China.

那难道我们要接受这种事实吗

Are we supposed to accept this fact?

这不用啊

No need for that.

然后呢

And then?

好这个我刚才就是说回到刚才的

Okay, what I just said was going back to what I mentioned earlier.

这个话头就是说

This topic means that

其实我认为宣讲任何事情

In fact, I believe that explaining anything...

应该尽量就是

It should be tried as much as possible.

说强调一个正面的概念

It emphasizes a positive concept.

就是说

That is to say.

莱猪是一个合法而无害的商品

Laizhu is a legal and harmless product.

而不要用一些那种

And don't use some of those.

凡

富富得正的方式去谈

A wealthy and proper way to talk.

然后譬如说刚才这个

Then, for example, just now this.

你讲的一个我觉得很重要

What you said is something I think is very important.

就是说

That is to say

你说这个

You say this.

谢隆戒说吃莱猪就是那个

Xie Longjie said eating pork is that.

会变小

Will shrink.

然后呢

And then?

我觉得这就很简单

I think this is very simple.

就是拿出科学证据

Just provide scientific evidence.

根本没有这种事

There is simply no such thing.

对

Correct.

这才是逻辑上有效的反驳嘛

This is a logically valid rebuttal.

对就是说

That is to say.

你有哪一点证据证明说吃莱猪那个会变小

What evidence do you have to prove that eating laizhu will make you smaller?

不然的话我可以告你的

Otherwise, I can sue you.

对不对你这个

Is that right for you?

这个危言耸听对不对

This alarmist statement, isn't it?

而且

Moreover

这个甚至妨害国交嘛

This even undermines diplomatic relations.

这个或者是怎么样

How is this?

反正你就是正面的去缓解

Anyway, you should confront it positively.

根本没有任何科学证据

There is no scientific evidence at all.

不要这样胡说八道

Don't talk nonsense like that.

好这个

Good this.

台湾这防疫防了两年了

Taiwan's epidemic prevention has lasted for two years now.

我们应该要学习就是说

We should learn to say.

政府应该这个时候要出来说

The government should speak out at this time.

我们应该学习对科学对医学

We should learn about science and medicine.

对人体的健康要尊重专业

Respect for professionalism is essential for human health.

要这个

I want this.

服从科学

Obey science.

不要信口开河

Don't speak carelessly.

不要道听途说

Don't listen to hearsay.

不要听这些有的没有的东西

Don't listen to these nonsensical things.

防疫防了两年

The epidemic prevention has been going on for two years.

不就是应该要这样吗

Isn't this how it should be?

而不是在那些用那种

Instead of using that kind of...

莫名其妙的梗图说

Mysterious meme says

你就指出那些国民党留美的人说你看他们

You just point to those Kuomintang people who studied in the United States and say, "Look at them."

什么什么

What what

因为他们就变小了

Because they became smaller.

所以他们就这么害怕中国

So they are afraid of China like this.

这不是在证明谢荣介讲的是对的吗

This does not prove that what Xie Rongjie said is correct.

虽然那些人是我们讨厌的人

Although those people are the ones we dislike.

但是问题是说你不能这样啊

But the problem is that you can't do it this way.

因为你也没有证据证明说那些人的那些真的变小了

Because you have no evidence to prove that those people's things really shrank.

那老实讲就科学来讲

To be honest, scientifically speaking.

那个东西的大小跟你会不会就中国软弱也没有丝毫的关联吧

The size of that thing has nothing to do with whether China is weak or not.

对不对

Right or wrong?

那种大家说你没有懒趴所以就怎么

That kind of thing where everyone says you don't have a lazy butt, so...

那只是一种

That is just a kind of.

玩笑话

Joke.

科学上根本没有证明

There is no evidence in science at all.

你不能一方面支持莱猪说我们要强调科学

You can't support the pig while saying we need to emphasize science on one hand.

一方面又跳回来

On one hand, it jumps back again.

用这种无聊的梗图

Using this boring meme.

用这种无聊的笑话去替代应有的科学证据

Replace the necessary scientific evidence with this boring joke.

那你就是因为你

Then it's because of you.

自己先不用科学证据

No need for scientific evidence for oneself.

喜欢用梗图

I like to use memes.

喜欢用这种复复得证的方式

I like to use this kind of repetitive proof method.

所以才会让黄世修那种伪科学

That's why it would lead to pseudo-science like that of Huang Shixiu.

这种胡说八道的人

Such nonsense people.

在这个社会上居然会有声音

It's surprising that there can be a voice in this society.

说老实话

To be honest

你就应该用正确的方式去反驳去

You should refute it in the right way.

支持的主张

Supported claims

而不是反过头来跟这些人

Instead of turning back to these people.

同样的水准

The same standard.

在讲这种事情

Talking about this kind of thing.

甚至我不要说是同样水准

I wouldn't even say it's the same level.

就这种风气就你带起来的嘛

Is this kind of atmosphere what you created?

这种风气其实就是

This kind of atmosphere is actually...

蔡英文带起来的嘛

It was brought up by Tsai Ing-wen.

这个是不是他本人

Is this him in person?

我觉得这个倒在说啦

I think this is talking about倒 (dao).

但是至少

But at least

我认为就很简单

I think it's very simple.

你说

You said.

科学上来讲

Scientifically speaking

吃这个东西会造成那个缩小

Eating this thing will cause that to shrink.

完全没有任何科学依据的

Completely lacking any scientific basis.

没有任何科学证据的

There is no scientific evidence.

那这个

Then this.

直接讲这个就好了

Just say this directly.

然后你讲这个东西

Then you talk about this thing.

你要有提出证据

You need to provide evidence.

要不然的话呢

Otherwise.

这个就是胡说八道

This is just nonsense.

这个就是怎么样

This is how it is.

我觉得这个就对了

I think this is right.

而不是讲一堆什么

Instead of talking a bunch of nonsense.

你不进来租

You don't come in to rent.

然后怎么就会什么国际经贸孤儿

Then how did it become an international trade orphan?

什么那个

What is that?

这个吃了来租

This is for eating when renting.

什么什么

What what

就是怎么样

It is just like that.

那你看那些人

Then you look at those people.

所以这都完全不对了

So this is completely wrong.

而且我还要讲一点

And I also want to mention a point.

就是说

That is to say

我认为还有个最核心的概念

I believe there is another core concept.

就是说

That is to say.

很多人把这个

Many people consider this.

来租

For rent.

就是说

That is to say

你要争取美国的支持

You need to strive for the support of the United States.

所以你就必须要进来租

So you have to come in to rent.

意思我认为这个其实还是很危险

I think this is actually very dangerous.

为什么呢

Why is that?

因为这好像是说呢

Because it seems to be saying this.

美国的支持是用台湾人的

The support from the United States is for the Taiwanese people.

健康牺牲作为代价

Health sacrificed as a cost.

为了得到美国的支持

In order to gain the support of the United States.

我们健康上稍微牺牲一点

We sacrifice a little for our health.

也是必要之二

It is also a necessary part.

我认为这个不能这样子

I think this shouldn't be like this.

我认为美国

I think the United States.

我是念国际关系的

I am studying international relations.

我认为美国当然他有很多

I think the United States certainly has a lot.

外交政策的失误

Mistakes in foreign policy

也有很多判断错误双重标准

There are also many incorrect judgments and double standards.

然后那些官员的那种

Then the kind of those officials.

态度的傲慢

Arrogance of attitude

各式各样的问题

All kinds of questions

我认为那个都有

I think that has both.

但是你说

But you said.

美国会支持台湾

The United States will support Taiwan.

或者是会保护台湾

Or it may protect Taiwan.

是需要台湾人用这种

Is it necessary for Taiwanese people to use this?

强害自己身体去换

Harming one's own body in exchange.

对进口美国不合法商品

Illegal goods imported from the United States.

来做交换

Come and make an exchange.

我认为这个只有对

I think this is only right.

台湾跟美国的关系

Taiwan's relationship with the United States.

形成很恶劣的影响

Create a very negative impact.

没错

That's right.

对他的意思就是说

What he means is that

你现在这个

What you have now

执政党或者很多人一直在说

The ruling party or many people have been saying.

你要美国支持

You want support from the United States.

你要美国来保护你

You want the United States to protect you.

结果你又不吃他的这种东西

As a result, you don't eat that kind of thing from him again.

这可以吗

Is this okay?

意思就是说

It means to say.

美国好像就是为了台湾

It seems that the United States exists for Taiwan.

为了钱而打仗

Fight for money.

为了卖你一点这些

In order to sell you a little of this.

贸易的产品

Trade products

来打仗

Come to fight.

这有两个作用

This has two effects.

第一个就是说

The first one says.

你根本破坏

You are completely destroying.

台美之间的信任

Trust between Taiwan and the United States.

任何国家都不是用这种角度

No country is viewed from this perspective.

在从事国际关系

Engaging in international relations.

这是百分之百

This is one hundred percent.

美国去打

The United States goes to fight.

而且你猪肉一年才吃多少

And how much pork do you eat in a year?

拜托你

Please.

跟美国的军费什么

What about the military spending of the United States?

你现在一年是5亿美金的来猪好不好

Are you currently making 500 million dollars a year?

美国去打反恐战争

The United States engages in counterterrorism wars.

一天战费就不止5亿美金了

The daily war costs exceed 500 million dollars.

你怎么可能用这种

How could you possibly use this?

荒唐至极的理由说

Absurd reasons say.

你要美国来保护你

You want America to protect you.

你就要吃这种东西

You have to eat this kind of thing.

这根本毫无根据

This is completely unfounded.

更不要讲说

Not to mention.

你这个保护你的

You are protecting yourself.

是军队是国防部

It is the military and the Ministry of Defense.

跟卖猪肉的

Selling pork.

这有什么关联

What is the connection?

关联都没有

There is no connection at all.

国防部也不卖猪肉

The Ministry of Defense does not sell pork either.

像这种东西

Things like this.

我认为表面上来讲

I think on the surface,

依正直言

To speak honestly and straightforwardly.

好像都是说我是为了捍卫

It seems that they all say I am doing this to defend.

政府的政策

Government policy

我是不同意

I do not agree.

实际上来讲

In fact,

我觉得那个都是在放毒

I think that's all toxic.

别有用心

With ulterior motives.

那个是别有用心的

That is ulterior motive.

又譬如说什么

For example, what else?

你这个

You this.

这个

this

美国怎么

How is America?

支持你

Support you.

所以说你现在什么

So, what are you doing now?

我们正是需要美国的支持

We truly need the support of the United States.

所以这时候我们要进口来猪

So at this time, we need to import pigs.

这个代表说我们愿意自由贸易

This representative says we are willing to engage in free trade.

但是你进口来猪之后

But after you import the pigs...

你不吃也没有什么关系

It's okay if you don't eat.

这看起来

This looks like

也是没有错

That's not wrong either.

问题是说呢

The question is, what to say?

你真的进口来猪之后

After you really import the pigs.

难道台湾人就不吃吗

Do Taiwanese people not eat?

对不对

Right or wrong?

这个到时候

This will happen then.

对啊到时候等着看

Yeah, we'll wait and see then.

经济学来讲

In terms of economics

我想你这个比我更熟悉

I think you are more familiar with this than I am.

经济学来讲的话

In terms of economics.

就不会有这种事情

There won't be such things.

那到时候呢

What about then?

就是

That is it.

自我的这些宣传不断的破功

These self-promotions of mine keep failing.

老实讲

Honestly speaking

你宣传破功一次

You failed your promotion once.

往后你要说真话就更难让人相信

From now on, it will be even harder for people to believe you when you tell the truth.

这是

This is

这个

This

政治的这种

This political situation.

这种政治宣传

This kind of political propaganda

还是政治语言的铁律

It is still the iron law of political language.

就是

That's it.

你只要说谎或者是被戳破一次

You just have to lie or be exposed once.

以后你的真话就更难被相信

In the future, your truth will be even harder to believe.

就跟前面讲的一样

Just like mentioned earlier.

你那个来猪

Your pig is coming.

这个怎么不进口就会成为国际孤儿

How could this become an international orphan if it doesn't import?

老实讲

Honestly speaking

就算没有同意多于不同意

Even if there are more disagreements than agreements.

难道你台湾的经贸立刻降到零吗

Is your trade and economic interaction with Taiwan going to drop to zero immediately?

美国就不进口你的

The United States won't import yours.

晶片吗

Is it a chip?

然后还是你

Then it's still you.

这个对外的贸易就会立刻受到很大的打击吗

Will this foreign trade be immediately hit hard?

其实都不是必然的

Actually, none of this is inevitable.

只要没有发生

As long as it hasn't happened.

老实讲你以后再做任何的宣传

To be honest, don't do any more promotions in the future.

任何的这种

Any such thing.

正面意义的阐述都会被人家说

Positive interpretations will always be challenged by others.

你要说你是在胡说八道

You want to say that you are talking nonsense.

那我们

Then we

国生兄这样好了

Brother Guosheng, this is fine.

那我们来讲一下说

Then let's talk about it.

来猪如果说同意高于不同意

If the pigs agree more than they disagree.

对台湾真正的坏处大概是什么

What are the real drawbacks for Taiwan?

我认为是这样

I think so.

第一个就是说

The first one is to say.

信用

Credit

美国人就会觉得说

Americans would feel that way.

你这个

You this

都总统出来同意了

The president has come out and agreed.

但是还是没有办法

But there is still no way.

画下句点

Draw a period.

这个事还是有变数

There are still variables in this matter.

所以台湾的事情到底找谁谈算数

So who should we talk to about the Taiwan issue for it to count?

这个变成一个问号

This has become a question mark.

那这种东西变成一个问号就是我们一直在讲的

Then this kind of thing turning into a question mark is what we have always been talking about.

就是增加交易成本

It just increases transaction costs.

因为你没有办法信任

Because you can't trust.

我认为

I think.

这个坏处应该是存在的

This disadvantage should exist.

国生兄觉得呢

What does Guosheng think?

我认为同意大于不同意

I believe that agreement is greater than disagreement.

第一个最主要的这个讯息就是说

The first and most important message is that

国民党胜利

Kuomintang victory

国民党要来牛来牛就会进来

The Kuomintang will come, and the cows will come in.

国民党不要来牛就会进来

The Kuomintang shouldn't come in if it will only cause trouble.

来猪来猪就进不来

Come, pig, come, but you can't get in.

代表国民党的这个主导性是最高的

The leadership of the Kuomintang is the highest representation of the people.

国民党才是台湾的话事人

The Kuomintang is the real decision-maker in Taiwan.

老实讲国民党在这个议题上获得胜利

To be honest, the Kuomintang has won on this issue.

或在任何议题上获得胜利

Or achieve victory on any issue.

我认为对台湾都是不好的

I think it is not good for Taiwan.

这是第一个

This is the first one.

第二个就是说

The second one says.

你把这个来猪这件事情

You brought this matter to the pig.

这个

This

跟

对美国的关系还是会牵扯在一起

The relationship with the United States will still be intertwined.

这个

This

让人家得到学就说美国就是

Let someone learn and then say that it's just America.

强制推销这个

Forced selling this.

这种

This kind of

这个有问题的东西来台湾

This problematic thing comes to Taiwan.

然后呢被我们台湾人挡下来

Then it was blocked by us Taiwanese.

我认为这种奇怪的民族主义情绪就跟那个斯卡罗斯一模一样

I believe this strange nationalist sentiment is just like that of Skalos.

砍下美国人的头这样

Cut off the heads of Americans like this.

对台湾这几年是不是有人莫名其妙在推这种很

In the past few years, has someone in Taiwan been inexplicably promoting this kind of thing?

奇怪的反美的这种概念

The strange concept of anti-Americanism.

我认为这个大家可以自己判断

I think everyone can judge this for themselves.

一清二楚啦对啊

It's all very clear, right?

对啦所以

That's right, so...

我认为主要就这样那第三个其实就是让中国看到就是说

I think that's mainly it, and the third point is actually to let China see that...

很清楚啦

Very clear.

就是说台湾的某个政党或某个政治力量

That is to say, a certain political party or political force in Taiwan.

是根本没有办法把

There is simply no way to do it.

正确的事情用正确的方法讲清楚

Clearly explain the right thing using the right method.

那既然他没有办法把

Since he has no way to do it...

用把正确的事情用正确的方法讲清楚的话

Explain the right thing in the right way.

那从中间利用的空间其实就很大

The space utilized in the middle is actually very large.

鼓励

Encouragement

鼓励资讯战

Encourage information warfare.

对那

About that.

然后呢第四个就是说

And then the fourth one is to say...

既然呢有人已经提示了就是说

Since someone has already pointed out that...

甚至说台湾人恐怕也不是光总统这样提示

It can even be said that perhaps Taiwanese people are not just being reminded by the president in this way.

就这样自觉说啊你这个

Just be aware, you this.

同意不同意

Agree or disagree.

美国就会断

The United States will be cut off.

那这个同意大于不同意美国恐怕要断

Then this agreement outweighs the disagreement, and the U.S. is afraid it will be cut off.

这是第一个错误

This is the first mistake.

那第二个错误延伸到第二个错误就是说那干脆大家就死心塌地

The second mistake extends to the second mistake, which is that everyone might as well just give up completely.

就是还是跟中国吧

Let's stick with China, after all.

那这个

Then this

恐怕就是将来的跟中国的其他的协议啊或者是什么

I'm afraid it's related to future agreements with China or something else.

恐怕会来得更快更多

I'm afraid it will come faster and in greater quantity.

这是第四个问题

This is the fourth question.

那第五个问题呢我认为就很清楚了就是说

As for the fifth question, I think it's quite clear that...

这种莫名其妙有民间就是反美的政策

This inexplicable policy that is anti-American in nature has a grassroots aspect to it.

就是发起一个这种共同

It is to initiate a commonality like this.

这种所谓反来诸还是什么东西

What is this so-called "return to the original" or whatever it is?

这等会我要讲

I will talk about this later.

其实我今天写好一个备忘录我等会会用

Actually, I wrote a memo today that I will use later.

比较快的时间把我的备忘录讲完

Finish my memo in a relatively short time.

就是说那很明显的民间你说

That means it's very obvious, as you said.

发起反来诸就会反来诸

Initiating retaliation will only lead to counter-retaliation.

那民间在发起

The people are initiating.

反军购

Anti-arms purchase

一样啊

Same here.

对不对

Is that right?

军购也是美国来的东西嘛

Military purchases also come from the United States, don't they?

对不对那老实讲那之后民间要发起和平协议

To be honest, after that, the public should initiate a peace agreement.

也OK啊虽然你和和平协议有什么防御条款什么要经过

It's fine, although you have to go through what defensive clauses you have with the peace agreement.

国会同意怎样怎样但是老实讲你民间投一次

The Congress agrees to this and that, but to be honest, you should vote once in the public.

那个意向就很清楚了

The intention is very clear.

所以呢

So, what?

老实讲民间如果压倒性支持和平协议的话

To be honest, if there is overwhelming support for the peace agreement from the public.

那立法院难道那些立委会跟自己的选票过不去吗

Are those legislators in the Legislative Yuan really willing to go against their own voters?

你看现在这个

Look at this now.

这个这个新北市长

This new mayor of New Taipei City.

不是就跟

Isn't it just like this?

模拟两可吗对不对

Is it ambiguous, right?

就是所以我认为至少有这五个害处啦

So I think there are at least five harms.

这个是讲来诸了本来我是公投这四个议题

This is about the four issues that I originally intended to refer to in the referendum.

我是

I am.

我写了一个备忘录那要不然我把这个备忘录讲一下

I wrote a memo, how about I go over it?

我觉得简单的讲来诸的议题我们已经

I think we have already discussed the topics in simple terms.

讲了差不多大部分时间了我再补充一点就是说

I've been talking for most of the time, so I'll add one more point.

来诸这个议题如果最后结果还是输了

If we discuss this topic and the final result is still a loss.

那但是呢

But then呢

我认为失败不能只归咎于敌人的强大

I think failure can't be solely attributed to the enemy's strength.

好那

Okay then.

那这个

Well then, this.

第二个我认为

The second thing I think is

其他的议题啊

有關公投的大小事 2021年封關篇 與張國城教授對談 【酥餅直播不NG第19集】

有關公投的大小事 2021年封關篇與張國城教授對談【酥餅直播不NG第19集】