第廿六集：統計人生 (Part 2)

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1990年代我在大学读理学士的课程

In the 1990s, I studied for a Bachelor of Science degree at university.

当时的制度是一年级读数学 物理 化学这三科

At that time, the system had first graders studying mathematics, physics, and chemistry.

而二年级和三年级的时候就读其中两科

In the second and third grades, two of the subjects are studied.

毕业试的时候就要考四张试卷

During the graduation exam, four papers need to be taken.

那我就选了化学和数学

Then I chose chemistry and mathematics.

而数学科其中一张试卷有选择 我就选了统计

In one of the math exams, there was a choice, and I chose statistics.

那为什么是这样选科法呢

Then why is this method of selecting subjects used?

我喜欢化学就是因为它有趣

I like chemistry because it is interesting.

因为化学物质混合着混合着很多变化

Because chemical substances mix together with many changes.

很有趣的

Very interesting.

而数学就看中了那张统计科的卷

And mathematics focused on that statistics exam paper.

那又为什么会选中统计呢

Then why was statistics chosen?

就是因为听过有人说它很有用

It's just because I've heard someone say it's very useful.

虽然当时其实都不是很清楚有什么用的

Although at that time, it wasn't really clear what it was useful for.

毕业之后就在一间政府中学

After graduation, I worked at a government secondary school.

就教中六中七这两班

Just teach the sixth and seventh classes.

教就是化学也有 数学也有

Teaching includes chemistry and also mathematics.

数学科里面都有点统计

There is a bit of statistics in the subject of mathematics.

不过就不是那么多

But it's not that much.

但是我既然识下统计

But since I am familiar with statistics.

就将一些学生的分数又分析一下

Let's analyze the scores of some students again.

看一下校内的考试分数

Check the exam scores on campus.

和大学入学时的考试分数

And the exam scores at the time of university entrance.

有没有一些相关的分析

Are there any relevant analyses?

由于我当时是兼做升学就业辅导主任

As I was also serving as the director of college admission and employment counseling at that time.

又做了一些学生升学就业的意向

Also made some intentions regarding students' further education and employment.

那方面的统计调查

Statistical survey in that regard.

和很多青年人一样

Like many young people.

一方面工作 一方面找些书读一下

On one hand, work; on the other hand, read some books.

又找些试考一下

Let's find some more to practice with.

所以工作了一段时间之后

So after working for a while

就时不时读一些短期的课程

Just occasionally take some short-term courses.

又加上自修一下

Also add some self-study.

准备考取英国统计学会的统计师资格

Preparing to obtain the statistician qualification from the Royal Statistical Society in the UK.

而当时电脑就初初来到香港

At that time, computers had just started to arrive in Hong Kong.

于是又读一些电脑方面的课程

So I took some more computer-related courses.

在这个时候教育署的考试部

At this time, the Examination Department of the Education Bureau.

有一位工作人员是会统计和电脑的

There is a staff member who is skilled in statistics and computer work.

就用来帮忙将公共考试电脑化

It is used to assist in the computerization of public exams.

而当时评分制度也都引进了一些统计的技术

At that time, the scoring system also introduced some statistical techniques.

这个考试部多年后就脱离了教育署成为考试局

Many years later, this examination department separated from the education bureau and became the examination authority.

考试部的主管接见了我之后

After meeting with the head of the examination department.

就要求教育署将我从学校调了去他那里

I asked the education department to transfer me from the school to his place.

考试部的工作其实挺辛苦

The work of the exam department is actually quite hard.

不过很有趣

However, it's very interesting.

很多东西学就挑战性很强

Many things are quite challenging to learn.

要知道当年考生的十万有多

One must know how significant the hundred thousand candidates were back then.

每个人都万分之重视自己的成绩

Everyone places immense importance on their own grades.

你给错分

You graded it wrong.

很大件事

A big event.

而且时间一点都不松动

Moreover, the time is not flexible at all.

人人考完试都希望快点放网

Everyone hopes to be free quickly after finishing the exam.

所以做事又要快又要精准

So work needs to be both fast and accurate.

做了三年

Worked for three years.

就是1972年

It was 1972.

我当时已经考完了英国专业统计师的资历考试

I had already completed the qualification exam for professional statisticians in the UK at that time.

也读完了教育文凭的夜间课程

I also completed the evening courses for the education diploma.

看来继续在教育署工作前前都挺好的

It seems that everything was quite good before continuing to work at the Education Department.

我事实上也挺喜欢教育行政方面去发展的

I actually quite like to develop in the area of educational administration.

就在这个时候

At this moment.

政府统计处就招聘统计师

The government statistics department is recruiting statisticians.

最初都是抱着不妨一试的心态去应考

At first, I approached the exam with the mindset of giving it a try.

考了之后

After the exam

求除了一番

Seek to eliminate a round.

最后就转了去统计处

Finally, I went to the statistics office.

由于都是政府部门

Since they are all government departments.

所以我的公务员身份就延续下去

So my civil servant status continues.

由于我在好几方面都有经验

Because I have experience in several areas.

而且对政府的运作就比较熟

Moreover, I am quite familiar with the operation of the government.

所以我要担当的职务的范围是比较阔的

So the scope of the position I will take on is quite broad.

包括要为很多其他部门提供这个

This includes having to provide this for many other departments.

统计的培训

Statistics training

统计的顾问服务等等

Statistical consulting services, etc.

也都要参加不少跨部门的委员会或者工作组的工作

They also need to participate in a number of cross-departmental committees or working groups.

当时很多部门都没有统计组

At that time, many departments did not have statistical teams.

我又要去帮助他们来设立这些统计组

I am going to help them set up these statistical groups again.

当然跟手做一些开荒的工作

Of course, I will also do some initial clearing work.

虽然离开了教育署

Although I have left the Education Bureau.

但是我在一些大专的夜间课程

But I am in some night courses at a junior college.

都有教统计

They all teach statistics.

整整十年这么久

A full ten years.

在统计处工作了三年

Worked at the statistics office for three years.

他们就派了我去荷兰的社会研究院

They sent me to the Social Research Institute in the Netherlands.

读一个深造的证书课程

Pursue a certificate program for further studies.

为期是九个月

The duration is nine months.

内容涵盖了官方统计的所有主要的范畴

The content covers all the major categories of official statistics.

我学了很多东西

I have learned a lot.

而接近课程完成的时候

As the course nears completion

美国马歇根大学的一位教授叫Kish

A professor at the University of Michigan, USA, is named Kish.

他就来学院讲学

He came to the academy to give a lecture.

Kish教授是世界级的抽养学权威

Professor Kish is a world-class authority on abstract nurturing.

他来学院还想顺便

He came to the academy and also wanted to...

看看有没有适合的学生

See if there are any suitable students.

可以去他一个夏季的课程

You can attend one of his summer courses.

我就挤彩

I just squeezed out the color.

就被他选中了

Just got chosen by him.

还有给了一个奖学金我

They also gave me a scholarship.

我就得到统计处批准去接受他

I have received approval from the statistics office to accept him.

还有延长我的学习假期三个月

Also extend my study leave for another three months.

回到统计处

Return to the statistics office.

正值是统计处抗战统计工作

It is the statistical work of the Statistics Office during the War of Resistance.

全盛的时期开始

The peak period begins.

他大力发展统计是什么原因呢

What is the reason for his strong emphasis on developing statistics?

就是因为当时的财政司

It was because of the Financial Secretary at that time.

现在就叫

Call now.

财政司司长

Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury

他就很注重统计

He pays a lot of attention to statistics.

分析经济也好

Analyzing the economy is good too.

长远规划也好

Long-term planning is fine too.

评估政策的效益也好

Whether to assess the effectiveness of the policy.

统统都要求是比较科学的做法

All of them require a more scientific approach.

也就是说要有根有据的研究

That is to say, research should be well-founded and evidence-based.

在80年代到90年代初

From the 1980s to the early 1990s.

由中英谈判开始

Started from Sino-British negotiations.

以至到中英联合声明的签署

Until the signing of the Sino-British Joint Declaration.

以至到筹备回归

Until the preparation for the return.

是政治上比较敏感的时期

It is a politically sensitive period.

而有经验的工作人员

And experienced staff

流动性也是比较大

Liquidity is also quite high.

当时我开始进入高级的管理层

At that time, I started to enter the senior management level.

我了解到有几个方面

I understand that there are several aspects.

一定要做得很好

You must do it very well.

第一

First.

香港人必须知道统计的价值

Hong Kong people must understand the value of statistics.

以及明白到可信任的统计

and understand reliable statistics

才是有价值的

is what's truly valuable.

而要做到这件事

And to accomplish this task

就要令市民有机会能够接触统计

It aims to give citizens the opportunity to access statistics.

认识统计

Understanding Statistics

又是愿意去用统计

Again willing to use statistics.

而至少是知道要防止

At least it is known that prevention is necessary.

别人用统计去骗自己

Others use statistics to deceive themselves.

而第二

And the second

要国际社会信任香港发布的统计数据

To gain the trust of the international community in the statistical data released by Hong Kong.

因为在国际间的投资、贸易、合作等等各方面

Because in various aspects of international investment, trade, cooperation, etc.

往往都是要看着统计的资料

It often depends on the statistical data.

第三

Third

内地当时开始改革开放

The mainland began its reform and opening up at that time.

很多方面都需要和国际接轨

Many aspects need to be aligned with international standards.

统计也不例外

Statistics are no exception.

而我们香港方面是可以提供一些很好的协助

And we in Hong Kong can provide some very good assistance.

在这几方面

In these aspects.

我个人都有比较深入的参与

I have personally been quite involved.

在本地方面

In terms of local aspects

统计处和众多的持份者加强了沟通

The statistics department has strengthened communication with numerous stakeholders.

而国际方面

As for the international aspect

就积极参与国际的统计活动

Actively participate in international statistical activities.

对于国内的代表团来香港学习、交流

Regarding domestic delegations coming to Hong Kong for study and交流.

我们都尽力去协助

We all do our best to assist.

97年顺利过渡

Smooth transition in 1997.

在一国两制之下

Under the principle of "one country, two systems."

香港和内地的官方统计系统

The official statistical systems of Hong Kong and Mainland China.

是完全分开来运作的

It operates completely separately.

回归之后

After the return

统计工作持续发展

Statistical work continues to develop.

官方统计工作

Official statistical work

特别强调完全没有政治或者行政干预

Emphasizing that there is absolutely no political or administrative interference.

在这方面

In this regard

政府守得很紧

The government is very strict.

统计处不断强化专业水平

The Statistics Department continuously enhances its professional level.

令到工作的质素是有所保证

To ensure the quality of work is guaranteed.

很庆幸

I'm very fortunate.

统计处和我自己

The Statistics Office and myself.

在本地和国际的统计界

In the local and international statistical community.

都得到信任和支持

All have gained trust and support.

亦都争取到一定的地位和声誉

Also strive to attain a certain status and reputation.

与此同时

At the same time

我本人亦都持续进修

I am also continuing my studies.

在80年代后期

In the late 1980s.

完成了一个统计学的实时课程

Completed a real-time course in statistics.

之前之后

Before and after

亦都不时参加不少的进修活动

Also regularly participates in various training activities.

虽然我说

Although I said

真的与统计有缘

Really destined to be related to statistics.

没有说很刻意

Not mentioned very deliberately.

但一直与它同行

But always walk alongside it.

有些学生会问

Some students will ask.

什么人才适合做统计工作

What kind of talent is suitable for statistical work?

其实统计工作有很多类型

In fact, there are many types of statistical work.

数学能力高的

High mathematical ability

理论统计

Theoretical Statistics

或者一些与科研有关的范畴

Or some areas related to scientific research.

有很多领域可以给它发挥

There are many fields where it can be developed.

如果是喜欢工商业

If you like industry and commerce.

财经

Finance

一方面有相当的

On one hand, there is quite a bit of.

统计创意

Statistical creativity

而另一方面

On the other hand

亦都要是

It should also be.

比较深入地认识那些工作领域

Gain a deeper understanding of those work fields.

它里面的事物

The things inside it.

更是需要有些比较好的

It is even more necessary to have some better ones.

沟通能力

Communication skills

而若然是喜欢做社会经济统计

If you like to do social and economic statistics.

特别是官方统计的话

Especially in terms of official statistics.

沟通能力就更加重要了

Communication skills become even more important.

因为接触的人是特别多

Because the number of people I interact with is particularly high.

而统计职位方面来说

As for the statistics position,

由前线到专业或者领导阶层

From the front line to the professional or leadership level.

需要的统计资历是不相同的

The required statistical qualifications are not the same.

最重要的一点就是

The most important point is that

不断学习

Continuous learning

而较为特别的一点

And a rather special point.

就是由于比较多机会

It's mainly due to the numerous opportunities.

接触到别人的私隐性资料

Accessing someone else's private information.

个个人必须要能够保密才行

Everyone must be able to keep secrets.

我这个节目叫做统计人生

My program is called "Statistics of Life."

除了和听众朋友介绍

In addition to introducing to the audience friends

统计方法和数据之外

Beyond statistical methods and data.

也希望大家透过统计

I also hope everyone can understand through statistics.

可以加深认识生活上遇到的事物

It can deepen the understanding of things encountered in life.

而最后

And in the end

由认识生活再进一步

Further understanding life.

去了解人生

Go understand life.

不过统计本身其实也涉及不少的哲理

However, statistics itself actually involves quite a bit of philosophy.

因此可以直接地对了解人生有所启示

Therefore, it can directly provide insights into understanding life.

我有些体会

I have some insights.

或者也可以和大家分享一下

You can also share with everyone.

统计理论之中一个核心的概念

A core concept in statistical theory.

是机率

It is probability.

或者叫做凯率

It can also be called Kai Rate.

机会率

Opportunity rate

我们每天面对未来可能发生的事情

We face the things that may happen in the future every day.

都会评估一下

They will evaluate it.

估计一下机会有多大

Estimate how great the opportunity is.

人生面对的事情

Things that life presents.

很多都不是必然的

Many things are not inevitable.

但是也不能够

But it can't.

什么都说听天由命

Whatever is said, just let fate decide.

你准备得好

You are well prepared.

成功的机会就大一点

The chances of success are a bit greater.

但是要有心理的准备

But you need to be mentally prepared.

不会因为你准备得好

It won't be because you are well prepared.

你就一定可以

You can definitely do it.

评估机会大还是小

Evaluate whether the opportunity is large or small.

很多时候是靠直觉

Most of the time, it relies on intuition.

但是经验少一点的话

But if there's a little less experience,

直觉就未必对了

Intuition is not necessarily correct.

一般人不会懂得怎样

Ordinary people wouldn't understand how.

比较科学地来评估机会率

To evaluate the probability more scientifically.

而事实上有很多时

In fact, there are many times...

这些机会也是未必有得计的

These opportunities may not necessarily be beneficial.

另一样东西就是所谓常态分布

Another thing is what is called a normal distribution.

很多事物都是依从这个分布

Many things follow this distribution.

比如说一班人的体高体重

For example, the height and weight of a group of people.

就是说中中的人最多

That means there are the most people in the middle.

两边就越极端的就会越少

The more extreme both sides become, the fewer they will be.

你觉得很多人很像你不出奇

You think it's not surprising that many people are very much like you.

但是会发觉他们又不会像你十足

But you will find that they are not as dedicated as you are.

总之大家好像同

In short, everyone seems to be the same.

但是又存在差异

But there are also differences.

只是不同

It's just different.

但又有不少的共通之处

But there are also many commonalities.

世事上面循环不息

The affairs of the world are endlessly cyclical.

很多事情是随着时间变化

Many things change over time.

价格上上落落

Prices fluctuate.

我们看到这时间系列的数据

We see the data from this time series.

就会看到很多这样的情景

You will see many scenarios like this.

痞极太来

The extreme rascal has arrived.

物极必反

Extremes will reverse.

见得多

Seen a lot.

有些人看到一些事情

Some people see certain things.

会很快做一些推论

Will quickly make some inferences.

殊不知是很容易以偏概全

Little do they know that it is easy to generalize from a small piece of information.

他们其实可能只是观察到一个

They might just have observed a

小小又没有什么代表性的样本

A small sample that is not particularly representative.

但是自己不知道

But I don't know myself.

所以我们真的要时时小心

So we really need to be careful at all times.

不要贸贸然地

Don't act recklessly.

就很执着坚持一些的偏见

Just very stubbornly hold on to certain prejudices.

统计统计统而计之

Statistics are counted and recorded systematically.

每一个人每一个单位

Every person and every unit.

都是一个个体

They are all individuals.

是整体的一部分

It is a part of the whole.

少至一个组群

At least one group.

大至一个国家

A large country.

那么你说整体大点好

Then you mean it's better to be larger overall.

还是小点好

It's better to be a little smaller.

小点就容易处理

Smaller points are easier to handle.

但是大又有很多好处

But being big has many advantages.

以国家而论

In terms of the country

地大就会较为密博

The earth will be relatively dense and rich.

若然遇上灾害

If encountering a disaster

一方有难

One side is in difficulty.

又说八方来换

It is said that the eight directions come to exchange.

那么以群体来说

So, in terms of the group.

集思也会广益一点

Gathering ideas will also be beneficial to some extent.

但是国家大群组大

But the national group is large.

又可能比较意见纷纷

There may also be a lot of differing opinions.

个体之间的利益冲突

Conflicts of interest between individuals.

又会比较多也不一定

It might also be a lot, but not necessarily.

或者可以说

Or it can be said that

最重要的还是团结

The most important thing is still unity.

团结给我们力量

Unity gives us strength.

团结才有力量

Unity is strength.

由统计而引出来的这些想法

These ideas derived from statistics.

你必然人同意

You must agree with the people.

但是最低限度也挺有趣

But at the very least, it's quite interesting.

节目接近尾声

The program is nearing its end.

我想借个机会

I want to take this opportunity.

讲多一点感受

Talk a bit more about your feelings.

回忆半年之前

Remembering six months ago.

香港电台中文台的台长

Director of Radio Television Hong Kong Chinese Channel

周伟才先生

Mr. Zhou Weicai

和第一台的节目总监

And the program director of the first station.

郑启明先生

Mr. Zheng Qiming

提议我做这个节目

I was proposed to do this program.

我其实是心大心小的

I actually have a big heart but a small mind.

不过他们很鼓励我

However, they encourage me a lot.

又给我信心

Gives me confidence again.

我就胆子粗粗的答应了

I boldly agreed.

做下去

Keep it up.

和编导张远君小姐

With director Zhang Yuanjun.

合作得很好

The cooperation went very well.

她又给了很多

She gave a lot again.

播音方面的技术提示过我

I have received technical tips on broadcasting.

而每次去到电台

And every time I go to the radio station

入停车场

Enter the parking lot.

经过接待处

Passing by the reception.

走到控制室

Walk to the control room.

每位同事都很好人

Every colleague is a very nice person.

令我心情轻松

Make me feel relaxed.

做节目就当作

Just treat it like doing a show.

和朋友聊天

Chatting with friends.

真的很感谢

Thank you very much.

很感谢电台各位

Thank you very much to everyone at the radio station.

当然

Of course.

对收听节目的朋友

To friends who are listening to the program

就更加特别要

It becomes even more special.

感谢他们的支持

Thank them for their support.

多年来

For many years

众多的好同事

Many good colleagues

良师益友

A good teacher and helpful friend.

令我的统计人生

Make my statistical life.

相当美满

Quite fulfilling.

很感激很感激他们

I am very grateful to them.

统计伴我同行大半生

Statistics have accompanied me for most of my life.

都算是上天

All can be considered heaven.

给我的奇妙恩典

Give me your wonderful grace.

好了

Alright.

节目时间差不多了

The program time is almost up.

下个星期

Next week.

同样时间

Same time

会有张永林先生主持的

Mr. Zhang Yonglin will be hosting.

《张永林的世界》

"The World of Zhang Yonglin"

在这里

Here.

我再次多谢各位

I would like to thank you all again.

支持《统计人生》节目

Support the "Statistical Life" program.

或者我们日后

Or perhaps in the future.

会有缘再会

We will meet again if fate allows.

请请

Please please.