焦点对话：普京侵乌半年 台海危机升级 美中俄濒临"开战边缘"？ - 8月 26日,2022年

欢迎收看美国之音的焦点对话

Welcome to Focus Dialogue on Voice of America.

我是樊东宁

I am Fan Dongning.

俄罗斯入侵乌克兰

Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

近半年战火持续延烧

The war has continued to burn for the past six months.

而与此同时

At the same time

台海地区的紧张情势

Tensions in the Taiwan Strait region.

也在不断的升高

Also continuing to rise.

一方面我们看到

On one hand, we see

乌克兰在迎来独立日之际

As Ukraine celebrates Independence Day

核电厂附近和火车站

Near the nuclear power plant and the train station.

都遭到了俄军火箭的猛烈攻击

All have suffered fierce attacks from the Russian military's rockets.

造成惨重的死伤

Causing heavy casualties.

而另一方面

On the other hand

解放军不断在台海周围

The People's Liberation Army is constantly operating around the Taiwan Strait.

举行实弹演习

Hold live-fire exercises.

并且连续将近一个月

And it has lasted for almost a month.

派出了加次多达两位数的军机

Dispatched a number of military aircraft reaching double digits.

越过台海中线

Crossing the Taiwan Strait median line.

根据《华尔街日报》的报道

According to a report by The Wall Street Journal.

中国国家主席习近平

Chinese President Xi Jinping

有可能在下个月

It is possible next month.

前往中亚

Heading to Central Asia.

与俄罗斯总统普京

With Russian President Putin

先进行会面之后

After the meeting.

在于10月份前往印尼

Going to Indonesia in October.

出席20国集团峰会时

When attending the G20 summit

会晤美国总统拜登

Meeting with President Biden.

来讨论台海危机

Let's discuss the Taiwan Strait crisis.

而前美国国务卿基辛格

Former U.S. Secretary of State Kissinger

则是在接受《华尔街日报》

Then in an interview with The Wall Street Journal

专访的时候称

It was mentioned during the interview.

美国正处在与俄罗斯和中国

The United States is in conflict with Russia and China.

爆发战争的边缘

On the brink of war.

美中之间

Between China and the United States

因为台湾问题升高的紧张关系

Due to the heightened tensions over the Taiwan issue.

是否会令习近平

Will it affect Xi Jinping?

进一步向普京靠拢

Further align with Putin.

美中俄三角关系

The triangular relationship between the U.S., China, and Russia.

是否真的像基辛格

Is it really like Kissinger?

所警告的那样危险

As dangerous as warned.

已经濒临开战的边缘了呢

It is already on the brink of war.

焦点对话

Focus Dialogue

今天很高兴邀请到两位专家

Today, I am very pleased to invite two experts.

为大家进行深入的分析

Conduct in-depth analysis for everyone.

一位是美国威尔逊中心

One is the Wilson Center in the United States.

基辛格中美关系研究所的主任

Director of the Kissinger Institute on China and the United States.

戴博先生

Mr. Dai Bo

戴博先生欢迎您

Mr. Dai Bo welcomes you.

谢谢 各位好

Thank you, everyone.

好 另一位是政论作家

Okay, the other one is a political commentator.

陈破空先生

Mr. Chen Pokoong

陈破空先生欢迎您

Mr. Chen Pokong, welcome to you.

主持人好 戴博先生好

Hello, host. Hello, Mr. Dai Bo.

各位观众听众好

Hello, ladies and gentlemen.

首先我想先请教戴博先生

First, I would like to ask Mr. Dai Bo.

您怎么看

What do you think?

现在这个俄罗斯入侵

Now this Russian invasion.

乌克兰已经半年了

It has been six months for Ukraine.

台海的危机也在不断升高

The crisis in the Taiwan Strait is also continuously rising.

您怎么看基辛格先生

What is your opinion of Mr. Kissinger?

他对目前美中俄三方关系的

His views on the current relationship among the US, China, and Russia.

这个观察

This observation

他认为目前在乌克兰和台海的形势

He believes that the current situation in Ukraine and the Taiwan Strait is...

似乎都超出了一些领导人的控制

It seems that it has exceeded the control of some leaders.

变得越来越危险

Becoming increasingly dangerous.

您同意他所说的

You agree with what he said.

美中俄正在濒临开战边缘吗

Are the US, China, and Russia on the brink of war?

戴博先生

Mr. Dai Bo

我觉得这个基辛格博士

I think this Dr. Kissinger.

他担心的是什么呢

What is he worried about?

在中美关系这个方面

In the aspect of China-US relations.

他认为我们都没有

He thinks none of us do.

一个目的

A goal.

我们没有一个战略的愿景

We do not have a strategic vision.

美方只不过是知道

The U.S. side is just aware.

他对在中国的什么人权问题

What human rights issues does he have regarding China?

知识权权问题

Knowledge rights issue

中国怎么对待什么西藏

How does China treat Tibet?

新疆 台湾 香港等等

Xinjiang, Taiwan, Hong Kong, etc.

我们都是非常的不满意

We are all very dissatisfied.

我们是想尽办法

We are trying every possible means.

要改变中国的行为

To change China's behavior.

可是一直都没有成功

But I have never succeeded.

而且我们没有说清楚

Moreover, we did not make it clear.

我们到底想带领中美关系

What do we really want to lead the China-U.S. relationship?

到什么地方去

Where to go?

我们怎么稳定这些关系

How can we stabilize these relationships?

我们没有说清楚

We did not explain clearly.

我们只不过是一个星期

We are just a week.

一个星期有我们的行动

A week has our actions.

有我们的反应

There is our response.

没有方向感

No sense of direction.

这个越来越危险

This is getting more and more dangerous.

因为中国是比较肯定

Because China is relatively certain.

它的方向和目的是什么

What is its direction and purpose?

有关俄罗斯和乌克兰

Regarding Russia and Ukraine

这个方面基辛格说得很清楚

Kissinger has made it very clear in this regard.

其实他的看法

In fact, his opinion.

跟北京和普京所说的很相通

What was said is very similar to what was communicated to Beijing and Putin.

他觉得北约的所谓的顿扩

He believes the so-called eastern expansion of NATO.

就是逼得普京有这方面的反应

It is precisely forcing Putin to have this kind of reaction.

他觉得北约的所谓的顿扩

He thinks that NATO's so-called "Eastern Expansion"

他的这些批评

His criticisms.

虽然从历史上看

Although from a historical perspective

我知道他担心的是什么

I know what he is worried about.

可是我不大同意

But I don't quite agree.

就是说俄罗斯侵略乌克兰

That is to say, Russia invaded Ukraine.

美国没有道德方面的责任

The United States has no moral responsibility.

这些责任都应该是归出于俄罗斯

These responsibilities should be attributed to Russia.

这是他的决定

This is his decision.

是俄罗斯这些屠杀

It is the massacres by Russia.

这些收存铁的平民

These civilians who collect iron.

而不是美国

Instead of the United States.

而且这次他入侵乌克兰

Moreover, this time he invaded Ukraine.

就是证明乌克兰

It is to prove Ukraine.

格鲁吉亚和别的国家

Georgia and other countries

原来打击乌克兰

It turns out to strike Ukraine.

感兴俄罗斯的这个用心如何

How does Russia feel about this effort?

是对的

That's correct.

是有根据的

It is well-founded.

我觉得我们最重要的

I think the most important thing for us is...

就是证明乌克兰的担忧

It just proves Ukraine's concerns.

是有根据的是

It is based on evidence.

芬兰和瑞典的决定

The decisions of Finland and Sweden.

他们非常小心的

They are very careful.

两个很保守的国家

Two very conservative countries.

最后还是决定要加入北约

In the end, I decided to join NATO.

也是说明中国的批评

It also reflects China's criticism.

也有一部分基辛格博士的批评

There is also a portion of criticism towards Dr. Kissinger.

是有缺陷的

It is flawed.

也是因为戴博

It's also because of Debo.

先生讲的这个请教

This inquiry that the gentleman is talking about.

陈破空先生

Mr. Chen Pokong

其实我们看到普京入侵乌克兰

In fact, we see Putin invading Ukraine.

届满半年了

It has been six months.

那么台海危机

Then the Taiwan Strait crisis.

也在佩洛西议长访台之后

Also after Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

就不断的升级

Just continuous upgrades.

那么其实回顾半年前

So actually, looking back six months ago...

这个俄乌战争刚开打的时候

When the Russia-Ukraine war first broke out.

当时其实国际社会

At that time, in fact, the international community

早就开始在发出警告

Already started issuing warnings.

担心这个普京和习近平

Worried about this Putin and Xi Jinping.

可能会联手在乌克兰和台海

May join forces in Ukraine and the Taiwan Strait.

制造所谓的这种双线危机

Manufacturing this so-called dual-line crisis.

您怎么看这半年来

What do you think of the past six months?

整个情势演变至今

The entire situation has evolved until now.

加上刚才金兴格博士所说

Adding to what Dr. Jin Xingge just said.

美国似乎缺乏应对之后

The United States seems to lack a response afterward.

对中俄的一个方向和目的

A direction and purpose for China and Russia.

一个purpose

A purpose

它可能会陷入

It may fall into.

同时要得和中国和俄罗斯

At the same time, it is necessary to have relations with China and Russia.

都爆发战争边缘的

On the brink of war.

两头烧的局面

A situation of being caught in the middle.

您的整体评估

Your overall assessment

目前美国和文明世界

Currently, the United States and the civilized world.

的确面对俄罗斯和中共

Indeed, facing Russia and the Chinese Communist Party.

这两种挑战

These two challenges.

不过到现在为止

But until now

我觉得美国政府

I think the U.S. government.

美国应对的还是不错的

The United States has responded quite well.

在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰这场战争中

In the war of Russia invading Ukraine

美国提前发了警报

The United States issued an early warning.

证明美国的情报非常的准确

Prove that American intelligence is very accurate.

另外对于

In addition to

乌克兰的支持

Support for Ukraine

从军事装备到国际动员的支持

From military equipment to support for international mobilization.

是非常得力的

It is very effective.

使战争的局势逐渐朝着

Gradually tilt the situation of the war towards

有利于乌克兰的方向在发展

The direction favorable to Ukraine is developing.

另外对中共这方面的应对

In addition, regarding the Chinese Communist Party's response to this aspect.

美国还是比较成功

The United States is relatively successful.

因为都知道中共是

Because everyone knows that the CCP is...

习近平想吞并台湾

Xi Jinping wants to annex Taiwan.

武力攻打台湾

Military aggression against Taiwan.

但是在两个问题上

But on two issues

他受到了遏制

He was restrained.

一个是他想跟俄罗斯结盟

One is that he wants to ally with Russia.

结盟的时候

At the time of alliance.

不仅受到了党内反对派的控制

Not only was it controlled by the opposition within the party.

他原来说的是

What he originally said was

中国关系尚不封顶

China's relationship is not yet at its peak.

是只有加油站没有终点站

It's only a gas station, not a terminal.

似乎是

It seems to be.

前所未有的一个宣誓

An unprecedented vow.

中共联盟

Chinese Communist Alliance

但是受到了两方面的钳子

But it has been caught in a vise from two sides.

习近平

Xi Jinping

一个是党内的反习派

One is the anti-Xi faction within the party.

没有同意他完全这么做

Did not fully agree with him doing it this way.

再一个美国祭出的二级制裁

Another secondary sanction imposed by the United States.

对中共的二级制裁

Secondary sanctions against the Chinese Communist Party.

在相当程度上起作用

Play a significant role to a certain extent.

使中共并不敢

The Communist Party of China does not dare.

胆大妄为跟俄罗斯结盟

Daringly and recklessly forming an alliance with Russia.

至于中共在台海方面发动的危机

As for the crisis initiated by the Chinese Communist Party in the Taiwan Strait.

可以说是在美国的掌控之中

It can be said to be under control in the United States.

佩洛西访问了

Pelosi visited.

中共以为可以吓住他

The Communist Party believes it can scare him.

并没有吓住

Did not scare off.

佩洛西访问了台湾

Pelosi visited Taiwan.

而中共的军演是在

And the military exercises of the Communist Party of China are in

佩洛西之后才举行

It was held after Pelosi.

而之前的

And the previous one.

在电子战

In electronic warfare

中共失败了

The Communist Party of China has failed.

美国取胜

America wins.

而之后的中共的军演

And the subsequent military exercises of the Chinese Communist Party.

也可以说是草草落幕

It can also be said to end hastily.

暴露了很多的丑态和软肋

Exposed many flaws and weaknesses.

所以在军演上

So at the military exercise

美国进一步的

Further in the United States

联系了国际同盟来支持台湾

Contacted the International Alliance to support Taiwan.

收发

Send and receive

美国应对的不错

The United States is responding well.

我同意戴博先生所说的

I agree with what Mr. Daibo said.

就是在整体和长远的战略上

It is precisely in the overall and long-term strategy.

似乎美国还需要一个

It seems that America still needs one.

更清晰的规划

Clearer planning

究竟将来的目标是什么

What is the ultimate goal for the future?

怎样走到那一步

How to get to that step?

如果现在说战争边缘

If we talk about the brink of war now

如果爆发战争的话

If a war breaks out.

美国还需要一个

The U.S. needs one more.

美国和文明世界

The United States and the civilized world.

怎样去应对

How to cope with it.

恐怕美国的确需要一个

I'm afraid the United States really needs one.

很宏大

Very grand.

很长远的战略布局

Long-term strategic layout.

那么戴博先生

Well then, Mr. Darbo.

陈破空先生评估

Mr. Chen Pokong's assessment

觉得美国应对中俄

Feel that the United States should respond to China and Russia.

好像还不错

It seems pretty good.

但是基辛格博士

But Dr. Kissinger

当然是有一些

Of course there are some.

觉得美国要检讨

Feeling that the United States needs to reflect.

您个人认为

What do you personally think?

拜登政府的外交政策

Biden administration's foreign policy

在应对中俄方面

In dealing with the China-Russia aspect.

有没有需要检讨

Is there anything that needs to be reflected upon?

或是责任的部分

Or the part of responsibility.

另外下一步

Additionally, the next step.

怎么去看

How to see?

中俄现在感觉上

China and Russia now feel like...

越来越靠近了

Getting closer and closer.

美国的下一步

The next step for the United States

该怎么应对呢

How should we deal with it?

基辛格说的

What Kissinger said.

我们跟

We follow.

俄罗斯

Russia

我们跟中国的摩擦

Our friction with China.

有一部分是美国的责任

It is partly America's responsibility.

他没有说得很清楚

He didn't explain it very clearly.

有一部分也是中国的责任

A part of it is also China's responsibility.

是俄罗斯的那些责任

It is Russia's responsibilities.

他没有讲得清楚

He didn't explain it clearly.

所以有时候

So sometimes.

他对美国的评估

His assessment of the United States.

是很清楚的

It is very clear.

可是他说

But he said.

中国说俄罗斯

China talks about Russia.

他有点含糊其词

He is a bit vague.

他并没有直接了当

He did not speak directly.

告诉中国

Tell China.

你是在什么地方

Where are you?

就是走错路的

It is just a wrong path.

虽然是如此

Although it is so.

我还觉得美国的对华政策

I still think the U.S. policy toward China

和对台湾的政策

And the policy towards Taiwan.

可能是

It might be.

可以稍微清楚一点

Can you be a little clearer?

美国每一次

Every time in America

美国国务院或者领导人

U.S. State Department or leaders

总是说美国还没有离开

Always saying that America hasn't left yet.

没有违背美国的一个中国政策

There is no violation of the United States' one China policy.

可是实际上

But in reality

美国在实行一个中国政策的

The United States is implementing a one China policy.

最起码我们的风格

At the very least, our style.

是跟过去大不相同

It is very different from the past.

你看那个不只是佩洛西去

Look, it's not just Pelosi going.

还有那个

And that one too.

马尔基

Markey

就是那个马斯丘赛州的

It's that one from Massachusetts.

他带领了一些人去

He led some people to go.

印第安那州的州长

Governor of Indiana

现在也有

There is now.

那个布莱克本

That Blackburn.

一个财务员

A cashier.

几乎是每三天

Almost every three days.

有另外一些理发者到台湾去

Some other barbers went to Taiwan.

这个肯定是故意的是

This is definitely intentional.

跟过去的事情

About the past.

实行一个中国的政策不同

Implementing a one-China policy is different.

所以你不能说中国没有任何原因

So you can't say that China has no reason at all.

怀疑美国的对华政策

Doubts about the U.S. policy towards China.

和对台湾政策有变化

And changes in Taiwan policy.

我觉得我们现在要搞清楚

I think we need to clarify things now.

我们的目标是什么呢

What is our goal?

我们的一个中国政策

Our one China policy.

到底是意味着什么呢?

What does it really mean?

我们会做什么?

What will we do?

不会做什么?

What won't (you) do?

我们要讲得一清二楚

We need to make it very clear.

要不然我们是走的

Otherwise, we are leaving.

离冲突越来越近

Getting closer to conflict.

虽然我说美国要改变他的政策

Although I said the United States needs to change its policy.

我不是说中国不要负起责任

I'm not saying that China should not take responsibility.

中国也要中国的责任

China also has its responsibilities.

我只是说美方而已

I was just talking about the U.S. side.

好的

Okay.

那么陈破坤先说

Then Chen Pokuan spoke first.

目前台海和乌克兰

Currently, the Taiwan Strait and Ukraine.

其实究竟这个问题

In fact, what is this question really about?

症结在哪边

Where is the crux?

谁有责任之外

Who is responsible beyond that?

要看下一步

Need to see the next step.

美中俄三方怎么走

How will the three sides of the US, China, and Russia proceed?

这个时候传出了习近平下个月

At this time, it was announced that Xi Jinping will attend next month.

可能会先去中亚会见普通人了

I may first go to Central Asia to meet ordinary people.

普京

Putin

然后再去10月份的印尼G20

Then go to the G20 in Indonesia in October.

来举行可能的拜习会

To hold a possible meeting between Biden and Xi.

你怎么看这个时候

What do you think of this time?

美中台三方传出领导人要回面的消息呢?

There are reports that the leaders of the US, China, and Taiwan are going to meet.

以习近平可能的出访

Possible visit by Xi Jinping.

有国内国际两种因素在其中起作用

Both domestic and international factors are at play.

其实这些出访还未必能够兑现

In fact, these visits may not necessarily be fulfilled.

比如说就在中共举行北戴河会议的中期

For example, during the middle of the CCP's Beidaihe meeting.

8月11号

August 11th

英国卫报独家报导

Exclusive report from The Guardian.

似乎得到了中共方面的放风

It seems to have received a signal from the Communist Party of China.

说北戴河会议结束

The Beidaihe meeting has concluded.

习近平就会访问沙特

Xi Jinping will visit Saudi Arabia.

但到目前为止并没有发生

But so far it has not happened.

说明了中国内部

It illustrates the internal situation in China.

由于权力斗争

Due to power struggle.

路线斗争

Route struggle

政局不稳

Political instability

习近平并不敢轻举妄动

Xi Jinping does not dare to act rashly.

那么接下来预测说

Next, the prediction says.

他会在11月到印尼出席20国峰会

He will attend the G20 summit in Indonesia in November.

或者是到泰国出席APEC峰会

Or attend the APEC Summit in Thailand.

并跟拜登见面

And meet with Biden.

后来也传出他要先跟普京见面

Later, there was also news that he wanted to meet with Putin first.

那么根据习近平的性格和他的作风

According to Xi Jinping's character and his style.

他有可能做出这样的

He might be able to do something like that.

就先跟普京见面

Let's meet with Putin first.

再跟拜登见面

Meet with Biden again.

显示中国联手来对付美国

Showing that China is teaming up to confront the United States.

这样子提高他的筹码来对付美国

This way, he raises his stakes to deal with the United States.

但是问题是他自己能不能成行

But the question is whether he can go himself.

都是一个问题

It's all the same problem.

他们放了很多风

They released a lot of wind.

放过国内人看

Let domestic people take a look.

就他在表示说

He is expressing that.

给党内给国内看

For the party and for domestic display.

他的连任是独立了

His reelection is independent.

没有人可以推翻他的连任

No one can overturn his re-election.

他的布局好

His layout is good.

在20大前后可以出访了

Can visit abroad around the 20th National Congress.

但是因为他给国际上放风

But because he is sending signals to the international community.

就是说他想在中美关系中

That means he wants to have a role in China-U.S. relations.

争取更多的筹码

Strive for more chips.

特别是拿俄罗斯作为自己的盟友

Especially taking Russia as its ally.

来恐吓美国

Come to intimidate the United States.

实际上美国企图让美国

In fact, the United States is attempting to make the United States...

在中美关系上对他让步

Making concessions to him in US-China relations.

但是中美关系上我想说的是

But what I want to say about China-U.S. relations is

责任肯定在中方

The responsibility certainly lies with the Chinese side.

而中方是主动着

And China is taking the initiative.

美国是被动者

The United States is a passive actor.

美国是被动的应对俄罗斯

The United States is responding passively to Russia.

被动的应对中共

Passive response to the CCP

所以从被动应对来说

So from a passive response perspective

美国可能是做得不够

The United States may not be doing enough.

但是从主要责任

But from the main responsibility.

谁挑起 谁惹祸

Whoever instigates will bring trouble.

谁点火

Who lit the fire?

谁制造了局势不稳定

Who created the unstable situation?

那只能来自于莫斯科和北京

That can only come from Moscow and Beijing.

这个结论是毫无疑问的

This conclusion is undoubtedly true.

戴博先生

Mr. Dai Bo

其实我们《家电对话》每次邀请您

In fact, every time we invite you to "Home Appliance Dialogue"

几乎都是要谈这个跟拜习会

Almost all of them want to talk about the Biden-Xi meeting.

美中领导人峰会有关

Regarding the leaders' summit between the U.S. and China.

那么这一次我们看到这乌克兰情势

So this time we are seeing the situation in Ukraine.

还有台海形势演变至今

The situation in the Taiwan Strait has evolved to this day.

美中三方关系的发展

The development of the tripartite relationship between the U.S., China, and Japan.

和接下来情势能不能降温呢

Can the situation cool down next?

好像这个印尼的G20

It seems like this G20 in Indonesia.

会不会是一个关键

Could it be a key factor?

尤其大家都传说

Especially everyone is saying.

拜习会真的有可能

The meeting between Biden and Xi is really possible.

在这个印尼11月份的举行

To be held in Indonesia this November.

但是习近平可能会先见普京

But Xi Jinping may meet with Putin first.

再见拜登

Goodbye Biden.

目前印尼也证实了

Indonesia has also confirmed it.

这个普京和习近平都会出席

Both Putin and Xi Jinping will attend.

您怎么看

What do you think?

这次的拜习会会不会是一个

Will this meeting between Biden and Xi be a...

解决双方管控危机的关键

The key to resolving the crisis of mutual control.

戴博先生

Mr. Dai Bo

肯定不会解决任何问题

It definitely won't solve any problems.

他们只不过是传递很多

They are just passing on a lot.

对方都已经很熟悉的信号

A signal that the other party is already very familiar with.

主要是给国内

Mainly for domestic use.

国内的人听的

What people in the country listen to.

国内的人看的

People in the country are watching.

我觉得二十国集团

I think the G20.

不是他们最理想的

Not their ideal.

见面的地方

The place to meet.

我们很可能需要的是一个

What we likely need is a...

就是几天的一个峰会

It is a summit that lasts for just a few days.

要不然每一次

Otherwise, every time.

习近平和拜登见面的时候

When Xi Jinping met with Biden.

我们看双方的这些

We look at these from both sides.

这些报告

These reports

一点消息都没有

No news at all.

一点进步都没有

Not a bit of progress.

一点突破都没有

There has been no breakthrough at all.

我觉得这个就是因为

I think this is because.

我们已经陷入了一个

We have fallen into a situation.

新的冷战

New Cold War

两方都不愿意承认

Both sides are unwilling to admit it.

我们的双方关系

Our bilateral relationship.

已经到了这个地点

Have already arrived at this location.

中方还是

The Chinese side is still...

就是否认

It's just denial.

这是一个战略竞赛

This is a strategic competition.

美方还是说

The U.S. side still says.

我们并不愿意搞一个新冷战

We do not wish to engage in a new Cold War.

等等

Wait a moment.

这些都不是很恰当的

These are not very appropriate.

我觉得他们第一个步骤

I think their first step.

需要承认

Need to admit.

像基辛格说的

As Kissinger said.

我们已经是

We are already.

开战很近很近

The war is very close, very close.

从这里

From here

我们要想起怎么维持和平

We need to think about how to maintain peace.

而不是否认他们的国家意图

Instead of denying their national intentions.

这个是最重要的一个步骤

This is the most important step.

后来他们才会有真正的坦率

Later, they will truly have frankness.

和坚持性的交流

And persistent communication.

曾博先生你怎么看

Mr. Zeng Bo, what do you think?

戴博先生说

Mr. Dabo said.

首先双方要先承认

First, both parties need to acknowledge.

已经离开战越来越近这个事实

The fact that we are getting closer to leaving war behind.

那么再来除了这个军事的战线之外

Then, besides this military front,

我们要看目前美中之间

We need to look at the current situation between the US and China.

其实是外交战也在越演越烈

In fact, the diplomatic battle is escalating.

包括了中共驻美大使秦刚

Including Qin Gang, the Chinese ambassador to the United States.

和美国副国务卿Wendy Sherman

With U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman.

还有这个纽约时报一篇最新的报道也称

There is also a recent report from The New York Times that states...

中共的外长王毅其实早期曾经对习近平和普京的结盟

China's foreign minister Wang Yi actually early on expressed his views on the alliance between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin.

他曾经表示过怀疑

He曾表示过怀疑.

但是现在却从一个彬彬有礼的外交官

But now it has turned into a courteous diplomat.

转而成为一个中共的战狼

Instead, become a战狼 of the Chinese Communist Party.

成为了习近平全球野心的宣传者

Became a promoter of Xi Jinping's global ambitions.

李翔请您做一段评论

Li Xiang asks you to provide a comment.

首先像王毅这样的

First, someone like Wang Yi.

是中共内部典型的官僚

It is a typical bureaucrat within the Communist Party of China.

这种官僚就是没有什么原则

This kind of bureaucrat has no principles at all.

没有什么立场

No particular stance.

没有什么信念

There is no belief.

就是在这个党内

It is within this party.

在党机器里面怎么生存下来

How to survive within the party machinery.

就是见风使舵左右云升吧

It's just about adapting to the situation and going with the flow.

怎么生存下来

How to survive?

关于王毅呢

Regarding Wang Yi.

其实我最早

Actually, I was the earliest.

我在日本很多年前

I was in Japan many years ago.

十几年前他曾经驻日本大使会日语

More than ten years ago, he served as an ambassador to Japan and spoke Japanese.

也跟日本有很好的关系

Also has a very good relationship with Japan.

日本人对他原来印象很好

The Japanese originally had a good impression of him.

绝对彬彬有礼

Absolutely courteous.

日本有位著名的政论家叫袁田总一郎

There is a famous political commentator in Japan named Torichiro Yamada.

现在都八十多岁了

Now they are in their eighties.

他有次跟我在对谈中

He once had a conversation with me.

他就告诉我

He just told me.

说王毅私底下跟他谈话

It is said that Wang Yi talked to him privately.

充满了对文化大革命和毛泽东的愤恨

Filled with resentment towards the Cultural Revolution and Mao Zedong.

对毛泽东要彻底否定

Completely negate Mao Zedong.

文革要彻底否定

The Cultural Revolution must be completely negated.

中国不应该回到文革时代

China should not return to the Cultural Revolution era.

他就告诉我说

He just told me that.

他认为王毅是改革家

He believes Wang Yi is a reformer.

但是后来王毅当了外交部长

But later Wang Yi became the Minister of Foreign Affairs.

在胡温时代表现的都还算是有绅士风度

During the Hu-Wen era, the behavior was still considered to have a gentlemanly demeanor.

有一定的外交磁力

Has a certain diplomatic magnetism.

但到了习近平时代逐渐就开始变化了

But during the Xi Jinping era, changes gradually began to occur.

这不是王毅本身要发生什么变化

This is not about any changes happening to Wang Yi himself.

而是最高领导人逼着他发生了这种变化

But it was the top leader who forced him to undergo this change.

就像2018年习近平支持外交系统召开一个会议

Just like in 2018, Xi Jinping supported the diplomatic system in holding a meeting.

当时把李克强排除在外

At that time, Li Keqiang was excluded.

本来外交部属于国务院

Originally, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs belongs to the State Council.

结果由王沪宁极左路线来主持

The result is presided over by Wang Huning's ultra-leftist line.

王沪宁主持会议

Wang Huning presided over the meeting.

习近平也出席讲话

Xi Jinping also attended the speech.

然后当时习近平递条子

Then Xi Jinping handed over a note.

要王毅在会上传达搞战狼外交

Wang Yi is to convey the message of pursuing wolf warrior diplomacy at the meeting.

这个是党内放风

This is a leak within the party.

国际媒体也有报道

International media have also reported.

这说明习近平极左路线的压力下

This indicates the pressure under Xi Jinping's extreme leftist policies.

王毅不得不这么做

Wang Yi had to do this.

如果不这么做

If we don't do it this way.

他轻的话就丢掉乌纱帽

He will lose his official hat if he speaks lightly.

重的话他甚至可能被打入秦城大牢

If the situation is serious, he might even be sent to the Qincheng Prison.

因为党内斗争是无情的

Because the struggle within the party is ruthless.

随时可以抓到你家族

Can grab your family anytime.

有任何的贪腐的把柄就打入秦城大牢

Any evidence of corruption will be sent to Qin Cheng Prison.

所以王毅通过这种走悄悄板

So Wang Yi is taking this backdoor approach.

现在变得越来越强硬

Now becoming increasingly tough.

就放弃了

Just gave up.

最早他是反对中国走那么近

Initially, he was opposed to China getting that close.

或者是习近平跟普京结盟

Or it could be that Xi Jinping forms an alliance with Putin.

但是他现在也不得不这么做

But he has to do this now as well.

给人的感觉

The feeling it gives to people.

他反而成了习近平强硬路线的代表者

He has become a representative of Xi Jinping's tough line.

反过来我们说秦刚

Conversely, let's talk about Qin Gang.

其实也是这么回事

In fact, it's like that as well.

你说秦刚本人有多强硬

How tough do you think Qin Gang himself is?

有多战狼吗

Is there a lot of "Wolf Warrior"?

他本身看不出来

He himself can't tell.

但是由于说习近平栽培他

But it's said that Xi Jinping cultivated him.

他作为习近平的代表

He serves as a representative of Xi Jinping.

他跑到美国做这个表演

He went to the United States to do this performance.

他每次想跟美国的记者想谈

He wants to talk to American reporters every time.

好像有什么话要说

It seems like there is something to say.

有什么新的话要说

Is there anything new to say?

等大家去听了

Wait for everyone to go listen.

完了之后全部是老套的话

After it's done, it's all cliché phrases.

旧话

Old story

没有任何的东西

Nothing at all.

他一方面表现得不太一样

On one hand, he behaves a little differently.

想说中美关系很重要

I want to say that China-U.S. relations are very important.

促进中美关系

Promote China-US relations.

但是另外表达出的信息

But the information expressed in another way.

完全是北京要他传达的信息

It is completely the message that Beijing wants him to convey.

所以让美国的媒体大肆守望

So let the American media watch closely.

让美国的政府也大肆守望

Let the American government also keep a close watch.

所以他刚刚前两天

So he just a few days ago

见了这个涉曼副国务卿

Met with Deputy Secretary of State Sherman.

之后一言不发脸色冰冷

After that, she remained silent and her face was icy cold.

不可能有任何的进展

There can be no progress.

因为中共的立场一点都没有改变

Because the CCP's stance has not changed at all.

对台湾的压力

Pressure on Taiwan

在新疆的一些政策

Some policies in Xinjiang.

还有跟俄国的这种不清不楚的关系

There is also this ambiguous relationship with Russia.

所以中国现在内部的政局不清楚

So the current political situation in China is unclear.

是让美国也不好决定

It makes it difficult for the United States to decide as well.

所以这些不管是王毅也好

So whether it's Wang Yi or not,

秦刚也好

Qin Gang is also good.

其他也好

Others are fine too.

代表习近平的发声

The voice representing Xi Jinping.

都是在现阶段

All of this is at the current stage.

他们本人无奈的情况下

In their helpless situation.

所做出的这种姿态

The posture that was taken.

被迫的战狼姿态

Forced wolf warrior posture

希望当然有所变化

Hope certainly has some changes.

就看二十大有没有什么动静

Just see if there are any developments from the 20th National Congress.

在博新刚陈破空先生去解释了

Mr. Chen Pokoong just explained at Bo Xin.

中共外交官他们这个立场的转变

The change in position of the Chinese Communist Party diplomats.

变成战狼

Become a battle wolf.

想请教您的是

What I would like to ask you is

你怎么看目前美中双方的

What do you think about the current relations between the U.S. and China?

外交官的立场

The position of the diplomat.

美中双方的外交官

Diplomats from China and the United States.

因为台湾问题

Because of the Taiwan issue.

好像陷入了一种外交战

It seems to have fallen into a kind of diplomatic war.

而且是互相指责

And they are blaming each other.

针锋相对的这种紧张关系

A tense relationship of confrontation.

一方面我们看到

On one hand, we see

美国驻中国的大使伯恩斯

The U.S. Ambassador to China, Burns.

他因为台湾问题的发言

His remarks on the Taiwan issue.

被中方批评为是颠倒黑白

Criticized by the Chinese side for turning black and white upside down.

刚才陈破空先生提到了

Mr. Chen Poko just mentioned.

新的中国驻美大使秦刚

New Chinese Ambassador to the United States Qin Gang.

他到国务院会见副国务卿

He met with the Deputy Secretary of State at the State Council.

双方也是各说各话没有共识

Both sides are talking past each other with no consensus.

你怎么看目前美中双方

What is your view on the current situation between the U.S. and China?

在台湾问题上出现这种严重的分歧

Such a serious divergence has emerged on the Taiwan issue.

已经变成了外交战

Has already turned into a diplomatic war.

这样的情况

Such a situation.

是不是反而会导致

Does it instead lead to?

中国和俄罗斯进一步的来靠拢

China and Russia are moving closer together.

进行所谓的战略合作呢

Carry out so-called strategic cooperation.

请教戴博先生

Please consult Mr. Dai Bo.

我觉得那个俄罗斯和中国

I think that Russia and China.

就是互相的靠拢

It's about coming together mutually.

他们这个战略的伙伴关系

Their strategic partnership.

这个都已经是定下来的

This has already been decided.

美国没有很多空间

There isn't much space in the United States.

影响他们今后的一些决定

Impact some of their future decisions.

俄罗斯和中国一样

Russia is the same as China.

都不愿意美国有权利塑造

No one is willing to let the United States have the right to shape.

他们的选择

Their choice

他们也非常讨厌美国的华裔权

They also really dislike Chinese American rights.

觉得美国是控制着美国

Feel that the United States is controlling the United States.

控制全世界的一些媒体

Controlling some media around the world.

可以给他们扣帽子

You can give them hats.

说你是流氓国家

You say you are a rogue state.

或者你是专政国家

Or you are a dictatorship.

这些他们都有同感

They all feel the same way about this.

所以不只是俄罗斯和中国越来越靠近

So it's not just that Russia and China are becoming closer.

还有伊朗

There is also Iran.

也许有土耳其

Maybe there is Turkey.

委内瑞拉

Venezuela

北朝鲜 古巴

North Korea Cuba

我们都已经可以看得出

We can all see it now.

新的一种冷战

A new kind of Cold War

这两个大集团正在形成

These two large groups are forming.

我把这个话说回来吧

Let me take that back.

就是美国有关台湾的政策

It is the U.S. policy regarding Taiwan.

到底是什么

What exactly is it?

美国明明知道

The United States clearly knows.

我们的很多行动

Many of our actions

中国会觉得是挑衅性的

China may see it as provocative.

所以我们不要一边

So let's not be one-sided.

就是频发率那么高的

It is the frequency that is so high.

派美国的理发者到台湾去

Send American barbers to Taiwan.

一边告诉中国

Tell China on one side.

我们没有改变

We have not changed.

我们的一个中国政策

Our one China policy

我觉得是没有说服力

I think it is unconvincing.

我害怕是虚讲声势

I fear it is just empty talk.

因为这样子很多台湾人觉得

Because of this, many Taiwanese people feel that...

如果中国就是动用军事力量

If China were to use military force.

美国肯定会保护我们的

The United States will definitely protect us.

这个不是肯定的

This is not certain.

这个就是很多美国的理发者

This is what many American barbers are like.

他们自己到台湾去

They went to Taiwan by themselves.

可以跟蔡英文总统拍照

Can I take a photo with President Tsai Ing-wen?

他们觉得自己是英雄好汉

They believe they are heroes and champions.

是非常道德的人

He is a very moral person.

给他们的宣明看

Show them the declaration.

可是不见得是说明美国的老百姓

But it doesn't necessarily mean the American people.

会支持他们的儿女

Will support their children.

为了台湾的继续独立而死的

Died for the continued independence of Taiwan.

所以我觉得习近平

So I think Xi Jinping.

我很少同意他的看法

I rarely agree with his views.

所以我觉得习近平我很少同意他的看法

So I feel that I rarely agree with Xi Jinping's views.

可是美国是有一点玩火的

However, the United States is playing with fire a bit.

当然中国的这些挑衅性的行为

Of course, these provocative actions by China.

也是越来越大的

It is also getting bigger and bigger.

美国不得不有一个反应

The United States has to have a response.

可是这个反应应该有一个战略的目标

However, this reaction should have a strategic objective.

而不是一个星期一个星期过的

Instead of living week by week.

再继续请教两位来宾

I would like to continue asking the two guests.

有关于这个对于中共

Regarding this matter about the Chinese Communist Party.

还有美国国内的影响之外

In addition to the impact within the United States.

之前我想请陈破空先很快的回应一下

Previously, I wanted to ask Chen Pokong to respond quickly.

刚才戴博先生所说的好吗

Is what Mr. Dai Bo just said good?

你认为

What do you think?

关于习近平跟拜登通话的时候

Regarding the conversation between Xi Jinping and Biden.

用了一个中国的成语

Used a Chinese idiom.

玩火的

Playing with fire.

可能戴博先生会有点误会

Mr. Debo may be a little confused.

这个虽然是在指责对方

This is indeed accusing the other party.

但是中共从来在指责对方的时候

However, the Chinese Communist Party has always accused the other party when...

是反映他们自己的行为

It reflects their own behavior.

因为玩火是什么意思

"Playing with fire" means to engage in risky or dangerous behavior.

比如说战争或者战争的威胁

For example, war or the threat of war.

这是中共做的

This is done by the Chinese Communist Party.

还像俄罗斯不仅是玩火

Russia is not just playing with fire.

他真把火给玩起来了

He really got the fire going.

比如入侵物可能还不只是威胁了

For example, the invading species may pose threats beyond just that.

所以美国从来不存在玩火这回事

So the United States has never played with fire.

所以后来我们看到

So later we saw

中共大规模围台军演

The Chinese Communist Party's large-scale military exercises around Taiwan.

就是在火

It's on fire.

就是说美国从来没有玩火

It means that the United States has never played with fire.

所以这是一个反话

So this is a sarcasm.

另外我想说的是

Additionally, I would like to say that.

从地缘政治上来看

From a geopolitical perspective.

从历史上来看

From a historical perspective

俄罗斯从来就是一个扩张主义的国家

Russia has always been an expansionist country.

俄罗斯最早的时候是一个莫斯科公国

Russia was originally a principality of Moscow.

最近的500年一直在扩张

The last 500 years have been a period of expansion.

它的领土就是扩张得来的

Its territory is acquired through expansion.

向东向南向西

Towards the east, towards the south, towards the west.

一直在扩张

Continuously expanding.

很多领土从中国夺取过去的

Many territories were taken from China in the past.

至少150万平方公里

At least 1.5 million square kilometers.

相当于44个台湾

Equivalent to 44 Taiwans.

那么很多东欧国家

So many Eastern European countries

欧洲中亚都深受险害

Europe and Central Asia are all severely affected by disasters.

那么它的扩张主义本性没有改变

So its expansionist nature has not changed.

直到北约建立这个扩张的进程才结束

The process of expansion did not end until NATO was established.

所以他现在妄图要瓦解北约

So he is now trying to dismantle NATO.

或者不让其他国家加入北约

Or not allow other countries to join NATO.

实际上

In fact

他的矛盾很矛盾

His contradictions are very contradictory.

他如果把乌克兰拿下来

If he takes Ukraine down.

他的边境又到达了北约

His border has reached NATO again.

所以这是一个矛盾

So this is a contradiction.

另外中国极端的民族主义

In addition, China's extreme nationalism.

把伟大复兴建立在

Establish the great rejuvenation on

拿下台湾3万平方公里

Take over 30,000 square kilometers of Taiwan.

叫伟大复兴吗

Is it called the great rejuvenation?

你为什么不把俄罗斯

Why don’t you take Russia?

夺取的150万平方公里拿下来

Seizing the 1.5 million square kilometers.

那才是你了不起的伟大复兴

That is your remarkable great rejuvenation.

但他不敢

But he doesn't dare.

所以习近平的个人目的

So Xi Jinping's personal purpose

为了连任长期执政

In order to seek re-election for a long-term rule.

搞了这一套

Got this set up.

所以他是对内是镇压

So he is suppressing internally.

对外是扩张

External is expansion.

对周边国家

To neighboring countries.

不仅是对台湾构成威胁

It is not only a threat to Taiwan.

但是责任下

But under responsibility.

美国的角色是维护世界秩序

The role of the United States is to maintain world order.

一战二战冷战后

After World War I, World War II, and the Cold War.

美国就是维护世界秩序的角色

The United States is the role of maintaining world order.

在这样的情况下

In such a situation.

美国不存在玩火的问题

The problem of playing with fire does not exist in the United States.

他只会说对待玩火者怎么办

What should be done to those who play with fire?

美国不可能采取两极

The United States cannot adopt a bipolar approach.

第一极

First pole

美国这个民主国家

The United States, this democratic country.

他后发之人

He who comes after.

不可能发动战争

It is impossible to initiate a war.

第二

Second

美国的另一极是

The other pole of America is.

现在不可能

It's not possible right now.

也不应该采取税金政策

Tax policies should not be implemented either.

说我哄着你北京

I say I'm coaxing you in Beijing.

哄着你莫斯科

Calming you down in Moscow.

我哄着你

I comfort you.

然后怎么怎么样

Then what happened?

不会

No.

美国必须应对

The United States must respond.

我同意戴博另外一个话

I agree with another thing that Dai Bo said.

就是必须有个长远的宏观的政策

There must be a long-term macro policy.

来应对这样的挑战

To meet such challenges.

但是绝不能够被北京和莫斯科

But it must never be controlled by Beijing and Moscow.

牵着鼻子走

To be led around by the nose.

美国必须采取一种主动的考虑

The United States must take a proactive approach.

怎么终止这种侵略扩张和威胁

How to terminate this aggression, expansion, and threat?

真正的捍卫民主价值

Truly defending democratic values.

我认为在台湾上

I think in Taiwan.

干脆明确表态

Simply and clearly express your stance.

就像日本所说的

Just like what is said in Japan.

台湾有事就是日本有事

If there is an incident in Taiwan, it is an incident for Japan.

台海有事就是日本有事

If there's an incident in the Taiwan Strait, it's an incident for Japan.

美国也可以做这样的表态

The United States can also make such a statement.

我们就是亚太国家

We are the Asia-Pacific countries.

台海有事就是我们有事

If there is an issue in the Taiwan Strait, it is our issue.

明确表态

Make a clear statement.

以阻止中共的蠢动

To prevent the Chinese Communist Party's movements.

我十分同意

I completely agree.

这个

this

这个海下的这个问题的根

The root of this problem under the sea.

在于北京肯用武力

It depends on whether Beijing is willing to use force.

来侵略台湾

Come to invade Taiwan.

这个是这个问题的根

This is the root of the problem.

不是台湾的民进党

Not the Democratic Progressive Party of Taiwan.

怎么怎么样

How is it?

也不是美国怎么怎么样

It's not like the U.S. is anything special.

问题在于北京

The problem lies in Beijing.

可是美国

But the United States

应该是一个成熟的

It should be a mature one.

理智的

Rational.

冷静的

Calm.

有清楚的长期战略的国家

Countries with a clear long-term strategy.

而不是表这个态那个态

Rather than expressing this attitude or that attitude.

就是每一个星期

It's every week.

或者每一个星期

Or every week.

每一个星期或者每一个星期

Every week or every week.

一个月

One month

因为有中国的什么那个挑衅性的行为

Because of China's provocative behavior.

而有一个反应而已

It's just a reaction.

这样子我们一步一步是走的

In this way, we are moving step by step.

你冲突越来越近

You are getting closer to conflict.

越来越近

Getting closer and closer.

所以美国要冷静下来

So the United States needs to calm down.

而不只是这个我不敢示弱

But it's not just this; I don't dare to show weakness.

你不敢示弱

You don't dare to show weakness.

所以有一个那个恶性性的一个循环

So there is a vicious cycle.

我们是要避免这个

We want to avoid this.

美国是有足够的经验

The United States has enough experience.

美国有人

There are people in America.

我们应该有一个更清楚的长期的战略

We should have a clearer long-term strategy.

到现在为止我们是缺乏这些

So far, we lack these.

好

Good.

接下来我想请教两位有关于对这个两边

Next, I would like to ask both of you about this on both sides.

这个各自内政的这个影响

The impact of each other's internal affairs.

陈破空先生习近平目前的外交困境

Mr. Chen Pokong's perspective on Xi Jinping's current diplomatic predicament.

您认为会如何影响到中共今天很重要

How do you think it will affect the importance of the CCP today?

这个二十大的人事布局

The personnel arrangement of the 20th National Congress.

刚刚我们提到这个王毅

We just mentioned Wang Yi.

他有没有可能是像外界所传言那样

Is it possible that he is like what the outside world is saying?

这是可能破格深人

This may be a special deep penetration.

在这个涉外人事方面

In this aspect of foreign-related personnel affairs.

另外刚提到戴博先生说这个恶性循环

Additionally, Mr. Dai Bo mentioned this vicious cycle.

你认为中共现在外交官的全面战狼化

What do you think about the comprehensive "wolf warrior" diplomacy of Chinese diplomats now?

是不是才是导致美中关系恶化恶性循环的一个主要原因

Isn't it a major reason for the vicious cycle leading to the deterioration of U.S.-China relations?

首先关于二十大这个外交方面的人事布局

First of all, regarding the personnel arrangements for foreign affairs related to the 20th National Congress.

这个杨洁篪本来是亲美

This Yang Jiechi was originally pro-American.

但是却被迫反美

However, they are forced to be anti-American.

杨王毅本来是亲日却被迫反日

Yang Wangyi was originally pro-Japanese but was forced to turn against Japan.

后来也反美亲俄

Later also turned against America and favored Russia.

那么这个王毅和杨洁篪

So this Wang Yi and Yang Jiechi.

都是江泽民胡锦涛时代成长起来的外交家

They are all diplomats who grew up during the era of Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao.

也可以说是改革开放时代成长起来的外交家

You could also say that they are diplomats who grew up during the era of reform and opening-up.

但是因为他们比较资深比较懂

But because they are more experienced and knowledgeable.

到了习近平时代却逼他们走战狼路线

Entering the era of Xi Jinping, they are forced to take the wolf warrior approach.

其实他们内心很不情愿很挣扎

In fact, they are very reluctant and struggling inside.

另外国际媒体都有一个报道

In addition, international media all have a report.

早几年就有一个报道

A few years ago, there was a report.

说习近平为了推行他战狼外交

It is said that Xi Jinping is promoting his wolf warrior diplomacy.

竟然把杨洁篪王毅这样的资深的外交家

Unexpectedly placing seasoned diplomats like Yang Jiechi and Wang Yi.

剔除在高层决策之外

Excluded from high-level decision-making.

就高层外交决策

On high-level diplomatic decision-making.

由习近平和少数几个人决策了之后

Decided by Xi Jinping and a few others.

再来通知他们

Notify them again.

这让他们两个人已经很窝火很生气

This has made both of them very annoyed and angry.

那么现在习近平自己培养的人根本没有

So now there are basically no people that Xi Jinping has cultivated himself.

比如他培养了一个岳玉成

For example, he cultivated a Yue Yucheng.

本来说是接外交部长的热门人选

Originally, he was seen as a strong candidate to take over as Foreign Minister.

今年二月份他代表习近平宣布

In February of this year, he announced on behalf of Xi Jinping.

中国结盟是上不封顶

The Chinese alliance is limitless.

只有驾驭站没有终点站

There is only a starting point, not a destination.

全方位的没有底线的

All-encompassing and without bottom lines.

但是我们看到

But we see

党内的反习派照样有力量

The anti-Xi faction within the party is still powerful.

把岳玉成赶出了外交部

Expel Yue Yucheng from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

他不仅不能够接外交部长

He is not only unable to take up the position of foreign minister.

现在赶到广电局

Now hurry to the Broadcasting and Television Bureau.

当一个副局长

When a deputy director

就证明习近平的挫折

It proves Xi Jinping's setbacks.

那么在外交路线上

Then on the diplomatic front.

习近平并不能够一言九鼎

Xi Jinping cannot be relied upon to keep his word.

或者说单枪匹马

Or say fighting alone.

那么他现在传出说

Then he is now saying that

王毅有可能超越年龄了

Wang Yi may have surpassed his age.

七三八下年龄

Seven-three-eight lower age

在69岁的时候继续接替杨洁篪

Continue to succeed Yang Jiechi at the age of 69.

72岁的杨洁篪去主管外交事务

72-year-old Yang Jiechi is in charge of diplomatic affairs.

那有可能是各方妥协的结果

That might be the result of compromises from all parties involved.

习近平来说不见得有那么愿意

Xi Jinping may not necessarily be that willing.

但是习近平本身没有什么人选

But Xi Jinping himself has no candidates.

这就证明他在忙于外交

This proves that he is busy with diplomacy.

忙于战狼外交的时候

When busy with wolf warrior diplomacy.

他手下这些人都根本不知所措

The people under him are completely at a loss.

所以中国的外交失去了方向

So China's diplomacy has lost its direction.

同样也想请教戴博先生

I would also like to ask Mr. Dai Bo.

有关于内政是如何影响

How domestic affairs impact.

拜登政府的外交政策

The foreign policy of the Biden administration.

刚才我们一直提到说

We just mentioned that...

拜登政府似乎没有办法

The Biden administration seems to have no way out.

去把调子放软对中国的

Tone down the criticism towards China.

这个唇枪舌尽两面外交官

This diplomat, skilled in both words and persuasion, is a master of diplomacy.

也没有办法把姿态放低的原因

There's also no way to lower one's stance.

会不会是考虑到

Could it be taken into consideration?

今年是美国的中期选举年

This year is the midterm election year in the United States.

是不是也会考虑到内政

Will you also consider domestic affairs?

在这个选民的影响后

After the influence of this voter

导致他们在外交政策方面

Leading them in terms of foreign policy.

拜登政府并没有办法

The Biden administration has no solutions.

把对中国的调子放软了

The tone towards China has softened.

你怎么看对中期选举的影响

What do you think about the impact of the midterm elections?

我觉得拜登政府

I think the Biden administration

怎么处理这个中美关系的

How to handle the relationship between China and the United States?

对中期选举

Regarding the midterm elections.

不会有什么太大的影响

There won't be any significant impact.

美国人担心的是

What Americans are worried about is

第一个最大的问题是通货膨胀

The biggest issue is inflation.

还有那个疫情等等

And also that pandemic, etc.

而不是任何一些外交事务的

rather than any diplomatic affairs.

拜登最怕的就是

What Biden fears the most is

那个共和党的一些

Some of the Republican Party

可能2024年

Possibly in 2024.

做总统候选人的一些参议员

Some senators who are presidential candidates.

卡顿 康乃斯这些人

Cadon and these people from Conis.

说他对中国来讲是太软弱的

He is too weak for China.

他是怕这些的

He is afraid of these.

所以他很难以做出任何让步

So it is difficult for him to make any concessions.

或者妥协

Or compromise.

可是除了这个之外

But aside from this.

对中期选举不会有什么影响

There will be no impact on the midterm elections.

好的 节目时间关系

Alright, due to the program's time constraints.

想把最后的时间保留给两位

I want to reserve the last moments for the two of you.

做自由的总结

Make a summary of freedom.

究竟这个美中俄关系

What is the relationship between the US, China, and Russia?

下一步会怎么走

What will be the next step?

俄乌战争怎么收场

How will the Russia-Ukraine war end?

台海情势能不能降温呢

Can the situation in the Taiwan Strait be eased?

陈破光先生

Mr. Chen Poguang

请跟我们做问

Please follow us to ask questions.

一分钟总结

One-minute summary.

首先俄乌战争

First of all, the Russia-Ukraine war.

我认为发生了很明显的转变

I think a significant change has occurred.

俄罗斯的全面进攻失败了

Russia's full-scale offensive has failed.

那么在乌克兰东部也陷入了泥潭

Then it got bogged down in eastern Ukraine as well.

在乌克兰南部已经遭遇了失败

In southern Ukraine, a defeat has already been encountered.

那乌克兰是接接反攻

So Ukraine is launching a counteroffensive.

而俄罗斯是步步倒退陷入泥潭

And Russia is stepping back step by step, sinking into the quagmire.

我认为战争的最终结果是

I believe the ultimate outcome of the war is

俄罗斯会失败

Russia will fail.

乌克兰会取胜

Ukraine will win.

而乌克兰所代表的国际文明世界会取胜

And the international civilized world represented by Ukraine will prevail.

至于台海危机

As for the Taiwan Strait crisis

我认为还是那句话

I still think it’s the same thing.

习近平受了两方面的牵制

Xi Jinping is constrained by two aspects.

是党内反习派的牵制

It is a constraint from the anti-Xi faction within the party.

或者说改革派的牵制

Or it could be said the restraint of the reformists.

对外受到美国、日本文明世界的牵制

Restrained by the civilized world of the United States and Japan.

他也不敢蠢动

He also doesn't dare to move.

这次围台军演所显示的他的软肋

The weaknesses displayed by his military exercises around Taiwan this time.

或者说他的弱点

Or say his weakness.

甚至是被动后退的这些特点

Even these characteristics of passive retreat.

都可以看出

It can be seen that.

台海危机是威而不发

The Taiwan Strait crisis is threatening but not escalating.

战争不一定会爆发

War does not necessarily have to break out.

但是当然美国会做好

But of course, the United States will do well.

全部应对台海战争

All should respond to the Taiwan Strait war.

甚至于应对俄罗斯战争升级的准备

Even the preparations to respond to the escalation of the war with Russia.

那么戴博先生

Well, Mr. Debo.

怎么看拜登政府将面临中俄联手

How do you see the Biden administration facing the alliance between China and Russia?

还有乌克兰危机

There is also the Ukraine crisis.

台海危机

Taiwan Strait Crisis

您的最后结论

Your final conclusion.

首先不要把乌克兰危机和台海危机

First, do not equate the Ukraine crisis with the Taiwan Strait crisis.

连在一起的

Connected together

乌克兰危机是已经发生过的事

The Ukraine crisis is something that has already happened.

台湾其实还没有发生的事情

What has not yet happened in Taiwan.

对不起

I'm sorry.

所以是两码事

So it's two different things.

在乌克兰

In Ukraine.

美国的目标是保证俄罗斯失败

The goal of the United States is to ensure Russia's failure.

在台湾

In Taiwan

我们的目标应该是保证

Our goal should be to ensure.

中国不下定决心

China does not make a firm decision.

要封锁或者侵略台湾

To blockade or invade Taiwan.

为了达到这个目标

In order to achieve this goal.

我们得说服中国

We need to persuade China.

美国还会把台湾问题

The United States will also address the Taiwan issue.

管理在一个中国政策的框架之内

Management within the framework of a Chinese policy.

这个非常难做到的

This is very difficult to achieve.

因为中国已经不信

Because China no longer trusts.

好的

Okay.

我们今天非常感谢戴博先生

We are very grateful to Mr. Daibo today.

还有陈破空先生

There is also Mr. Chen Pokong.

我们最后一集焦点对话

Our final episode of Focus Dialogue.

非常感谢二位

Thank you both very much.

谢谢广大观众听众

Thank you to the vast audience and listeners.

长期以来对焦点对话的支持

Long-term support for focused dialogue.

我听说焦点对话是最后一期

I heard that Focus Dialogue is the last episode.

我非常难过

I am very sad.

非常伤感

Very sad.

舍不得跟广大的观众和听众

Reluctant to part with the vast audience and listeners.

我仍然希望在广大观众听众的挽留之下

I still hope to remain under the urging of the wide audience.

或者是期待之下

Or perhaps in anticipation.

美国之音能够最终恢复焦点对话

Voice of America can ultimately restore the focus on dialogue.

让焦点对话再次回到我们华人的节目中

Let the focus dialogue return to our Chinese program.

国内外的中国人

Chinese people at home and abroad.

国内的华人

Chinese people in the country.

非常喜爱喜闻多见的这个节目

I really love this program that is widely enjoyed and seen.

能回到大家中间

Can return to everyone.

我参加焦点对话都已经20年左右了

I have been participating in Focus Dialogues for about 20 years.

我要感谢美国之音中文部

I want to thank the Chinese Department of Voice of America.

给我这次机会

Give me this opportunity.

方东宁 陈破空跟你合作

Fang Dongning cooperates with Chen Pokong.

我们不是每一个人都可以合作

Not every one of us can cooperate.

每一个星期都同意

Agree every week.

可是每一个星期跟你合作总是个乐趣

But working with you every week is always a pleasure.

我要感谢你

I want to thank you.

也要感谢我们的观众听众

We also want to thank our audience and listeners.

很多人非常支持我们的节目

Many people are very supportive of our program.

还有不少人骂我

There are still quite a few people scolding me.

我是亲共的

I am pro-communist.

我是白左的

I am a white leftist.

说我太太是共产党派来勾引我的一个错误什么的

Saying that my wife is a communist sent to tempt me is some kind of mistake or something.

我也要感谢你们的

I also want to thank you.

你给我带来很多的笑料

You bring me a lot of laughter.

现在不同意对方但是总是一个观点的交流

Now there is a disagreement with the other party, but it is always a communication of the same viewpoint.

非常感谢二位

Thank you very much, both of you.

支持我们的节目也感谢听众观众长期来对我们听众的支持

Thank you for supporting our program and for the long-term support from our listeners and audience.

还是要提醒听众观众我们两位来宾发表的是个人观点

I still want to remind the audience that the views expressed by our two guests are their personal opinions.

不代表美国之音

Does not represent Voice of America.

也请大家继续关注我们从下个星期开始

Please continue to pay attention to us starting from next week.

每周一到周五北京时间晚上9点要播出的

To be broadcasted every Monday to Friday at 9 PM Beijing time.

时事大家谈节目

Current Affairs Roundtable Program

我是方东宁 祝各位平安

I am Fang Dongning. Wishing everyone peace.

我们下次节目再会了

We will meet again in the next show.