海峡论谈：习近平参观国共内战纪念馆 暗示不惜一切解放台湾？ - 8月 21日,2022年

两岸关系最新发展锁定海峡论坛

The latest developments in cross-strait relations focus on the Straits Forum.

欢迎收看美国之音的海峡论坛

Welcome to the Straits Forum of Voice of America.

我是樊东宁

I am Fan Dongning.

美国众议院议长佩洛西访台之后

After U.S. House Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.

解放军连续多天对台实施军演

The People's Liberation Army has been conducting military exercises near Taiwan for several consecutive days.

并且持续每天派出架次

And continue to send flights every day.

打两位数的军机越过台海中线

Two-digit military aircraft crossed the Taiwan Strait median line.

而中国国家主席习近平

And China's President Xi Jinping.

则是在北戴河会议结束之后

It was after the conclusion of the Beidaihe meeting.

首次露面参观国共内战三大战役之一的

First appearance visiting one of the three major battles of the Chinese Civil War.

辽省战役纪念馆

Liaoning Province Battle Memorial Museum

解放军试图建立所谓的新常态

The People’s Liberation Army attempts to establish the so-called new normal.

持续不断加强以武力威吓台湾之际

As the intimidation of Taiwan through military force continues to intensify.

习近平参访国共战役纪念馆

Xi Jinping visits the Nationalist-Communist War Memorial Museum.

对台海情势释放什么讯号

What signals are being released regarding the situation in the Taiwan Strait?

此外823金门炮战刚好届满64周年

In addition, the 823 Kinmen artillery battle has just reached its 64th anniversary.

在台海中心的台湾军队

The Taiwanese military at the center of the Taiwan Strait.

在第四次台海危机的此刻

At this moment of the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

回顾历史上三次台海危机后

After reviewing the three Taiwan Strait crises in history

美中台关系的发展能给我们什么启示

What insights can the development of US-China-Taiwan relations provide us?

另外台湾民意基金会的调查发现

In addition, a survey by the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation found that

有将近八成的台湾民众

Nearly 80% of the Taiwanese public

对中共的军演并不感到害怕

Not afraid of the Chinese Communist Party's military exercises.

但也有将近五成的民众

But nearly 50% of the public

不相信美国会派兵协防台湾

I don't believe the United States will send troops to assist Taiwan.

那么我们要如何从这份最新的民调数字

So how should we interpret the latest poll numbers?

来分析接下来美中台关系的走向呢

Let's analyze the direction of the relationship between the US, China, and Taiwan moving forward.

我们要如何从这份最新的民调数字

How do we interpret the latest polling numbers?

海峡论坛今天很高兴

The Straits Forum is very happy today.

要先让两位专家为大家进行深入的分析

We need to have two experts conduct an in-depth analysis for everyone first.

一位是台湾政治大学的名誉教授

One is an emeritus professor at National Chengchi University in Taiwan.

丁树范教授

Professor Ding Shufan

丁教授 欢迎您

Professor Ding, welcome!

主持人好

Hello, host.

各位听众观众

Dear audience and viewers

以及范志平教授 大家好

Hello everyone, and Professor Fan Zhiping.

好 另外是我们台湾师范大学

Okay, also we are Taiwan Normal University.

东亚学系的范志平教授

Professor Fan Zhiping from the East Asian Studies Department.

范教授 欢迎您

Professor Fan, welcome!

东云好 丁教授好

Hello Dongyun, hello Professor Ding.

各位观众听众大家好

Hello everyone, audience and listeners.

好的 首先我想先请教

Okay, first I would like to ask.

丁树范教授

Professor Ding Shufan

您怎么看习近平

What do you think of Xi Jinping?

是选在北戴河会议结束之后

It is chosen after the conclusion of the Beidaihe Conference.

同时也是解放军加强

At the same time, it is also the People's Liberation Army strengthening.

对台湾武力恫吓之际呢

At a time when there is military intimidation towards Taiwan.

是去参观国共内战

It is to visit the Chinese Civil War between the Kuomintang and the Communist Party.

当时三大战役之一的

One of the three great battles at that time.

辽沈战役纪念馆

Liaoshen Battle Memorial Museum

您认为这对目前的台海紧张情势

What do you think about the current tensions in the Taiwan Strait?

是放出一个什么样的信号呢

What kind of signal does it send out?

丁教授

Professor Ding

我想任何一个政治领导人的一言一行

I want every word and action of any political leader.

都有他特殊的政治意义在里面

They all have their special political significance.

那么习近平先生在北戴河会议结束以后

So, after the conclusion of the Beidaihe meeting, Mr. Xi Jinping...

直接跑到台湾

Directly ran to Taiwan.

跑到东北然后去参观这个纪念馆

Run to the Northeast and then visit this memorial hall.

那么他的意义其实就表示说

Then his meaning actually indicates that

他对处理台湾议题这个决心

His determination to address the Taiwan issue.

我们不要忘记就是说

Let's not forget to say.

这一次在这个北戴河会议的时候

This time at the Beidaihe meeting.

解放军在台湾有大规模的军事演习

The People's Liberation Army is conducting large-scale military exercises in Taiwan.

同时划定了六个演习区

At the same time, six exercise areas have been designated.

那这个六个演习区

So these six exercise areas...

我们从他划定的方式来看

From the way he defined it, we can see...

他是等于是在包围了台湾

He is essentially surrounding Taiwan.

那么我们也不要忘记就是说

Then let us not forget to say that

不管是长春的战役

Regardless of the Battle of Changchun.

或者是这个北京的战役

Or it is the battle of Beijing.

在国共内战的时候

During the Chinese Civil War.

那么长春跟北京都是被共军包围以后

After Changchun and Beijing were both surrounded by the Communist army...

那么最后才被国军被击败了

In the end, they were defeated by the National Army.

所以我看就是说

So what I see is that...

习近平想透过参观这个纪念馆

Xi Jinping wants to understand through visiting this memorial museum.

那么表达出就是说

So what it means is...

他有这个意志跟决心要来处理台湾议题

He has the will and determination to address the Taiwan issue.

好的 那么范教授

Alright, then Professor Fan.

刚才丁教授提到了

Professor Ding just mentioned.

解放军在美国众议院议长佩洛西访台之后

After the visit of U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan, the People's Liberation Army

在台湾周围划出这个六大区域

Draw these six major areas around Taiwan.

进行他们所谓的这个围台军演

Conducting what they call this surround-the-table military exercise.

那么对照刚提到这个辽沈战役

Then in contrast to the previously mentioned Liaosheng Campaign.

也就是习近平在北戴河之后参观的这个纪念馆

This is the memorial that Xi Jinping visited after Beidaihe.

还有刚才丁教授也提到这段

Professor Ding also mentioned this segment just now.

长春围城的这个惨烈的历史

The tragic history of the Siege of Changchun.

您对习近平北戴河会议后

What do you think about Xi Jinping's meeting in Beidaihe?

去参观这个国共内战的纪念馆

Visit the memorial hall of the Chinese Civil War.

您的解读是什么呢 范教授

What is your interpretation, Professor Fan?

我觉得它是一时多秒

I think it is a moment that lasts for multiple seconds.

当然诚如刚丁教授所谈的

Of course, as Professor Jiang Ding mentioned.

这个中共三大战役

The three major campaigns of the Chinese Communist Party.

辽沈 平津 淮海

Liaoshen, Pingjin, Huaihai

那是后来这个国民党兵败庐山岛的最主要的原因

That was the main reason for the Kuomintang's defeat at Lushan Island later on.

那辽沈战役第一个他有两个意涵

The Liaoshen Campaign has two meanings in the first place.

一个就是解放军相当的牺牲相当多

One is that the People's Liberation Army has made quite a lot of sacrifices.

那习近平要表达

What Xi Jinping wants to express.

就是说我不惜一切代价要解放台湾

That is to say, I will spare no effort to liberate Taiwan.

第二就是当时这个围堵长春

The second is the siege of Changchun at that time.

那后来造成就是长春最后

What happened later was that in the end, it was Changchun.

因为这个食物不够最后也投降了

Because this food was not enough, it ultimately surrendered.

他这次他也是用一个演习

This time he also used an exercise.

用包围台湾的方式

By encircling Taiwan.

就是关门打狗

It's like closing the door to hit the dog.

所以我觉得有两层意涵

So I think there are two layers of meaning.

那第二在政治上来讲

Then secondly, in terms of politics.

我们知道习近平一直跟李克强在路线上是不一样的

We know that Xi Jinping has always had a different approach from Li Keqiang.

李克强他是团派出身

Li Keqiang comes from the Youth League faction.

他一直强调就是要走邓小平的改革开放的路线

He has always emphasized the need to follow Deng Xiaoping's path of reform and opening up.

所以就在同一天

So on the same day.

习近平去了这个辽沈的这个战争文物馆

Xi Jinping visited this Liaoshen War Memorial Museum.

李克强就去深圳

Li Keqiang went to Shenzhen.

对去深圳看了这个邓小平的纪念馆

I went to Shenzhen to see the Deng Xiaoping Memorial Hall.

所以这一来一往之间就是一个落差

So there is a gap in this back and forth.

那我们知道习近平他一直是以崇拜毛泽东为主

Then we know that Xi Jinping has always been primarily devoted to the worship of Mao Zedong.

那辽沈战役也是在毛泽东领导下的第一场战役

The Liaoshen Campaign was also the first campaign led by Mao Zedong.

所以说我觉得他某种程度也是强调

So I think he is emphasizing to some extent as well.

他要走的是毛的路线

He wants to follow Mao's path.

他过去也曾经到东北去

He has also been to the Northeast in the past.

说当时在这个中美贸易战的时候

During the US-China trade war at that time.

他强调自力更生

He emphasizes self-reliance.

自力更生也是毛的一个口号

Self-reliance is also one of Mao's slogans.

所以看得出来

So it can be seen.

这也看得出来北戴河会议之后

This can also be seen after the Beidaihe meeting.

两种路线也面临到一个很尖锐的对立

The two routes also face a sharp opposition.

好的也继续请教这个丁淑范教授

Okay, I will continue to consult this Professor Ding Shufen.

您怎么看这一次台海危机

What is your view on this Taiwan Strait crisis?

其实爆发的时间点

In fact, the timing of the outbreak.

正值中共北戴河会议之后

Just after the CCP's Beidaihe meeting.

以及习近平对他至关重要的中共二十大登场之前

And before Xi Jinping's crucial appearance at the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.

那么许多的对台决策

So many decisions regarding Taiwan.

包括那个白皮书

Including that white paper.

还有这个解放军的这个对台围台军演

Also, this military exercise by the People's Liberation Army surrounding Taiwan.

可能都是这个习近平我们堆铺时间的话

It may all be about this Xi Jinping when we talk about time.

他仍在这个北戴河所做出的这个决策或发布的

He is still making this decision or announcement in Beidaihe.

您认为目前我们看到的台海紧张局势

What do you think about the current tensions we are seeing in the Taiwan Strait?

对照刚才这个范教授所讲的

In contrast to what Professor Fan just mentioned.

是不是也和中共内部的政局

Is it also related to the internal political situation within the Communist Party?

还有习李的路线之争互相的牵连呢

There is also the entanglement of the route dispute between Xi and Li.

丁教授

Professor Ding

我想有一点

I would like to have a little bit.

非常明确一点

Very clear point.

就是说习近平他必须在台湾议题上

That is to say, Xi Jinping must address the Taiwan issue.

不能有丝毫的让步

There can be no slightest concession.

因为第一点就是说我们知道习近平

The first point is that we know Xi Jinping.

他想要继续这个打破过去改革开放以后

He wants to continue breaking through after the reform and opening up in the past.

四十年的惯例

Forty years of practice.

就是只做两任这个惯例

It's just the custom of serving only two terms.

那么习近平要打破这个惯例

Then Xi Jinping wants to break this convention.

那么他也必须在许多方面有所建树

Then he must also make achievements in many aspects.

那么当然台湾议题是一个可能最好发挥的议题

Well, of course the Taiwan issue is a topic that has the potential to be leveraged the best.

那么他如果能够在台湾议题上有所琢磨的话呢

Then what if he can reflect on the Taiwan issue?

那么当然对他这个能够取得像毛泽东一样的地位

Of course, it's possible for him to achieve a status like that of Mao Zedong.

我觉得这是一个蛮重要的一点

I think this is quite an important point.

所以就是说他可能也因为基于对美国的高度不信任

So it means that he might also be largely influenced by a high level of distrust towards the United States.

所以在北戴河会议前

So before the Beidaihe meeting

那么可能各种的方案可能都已经先准备了

So various plans may have already been prepared in advance.

因为这个佩洛西要访问台湾不是一夕之间的事情

Because this visit of Pelosi to Taiwan is not something that happened overnight.

美国内部也争论了很久各种议题

Various issues have been debated for a long time within the United States.

所以他有充分的时间去做很多的安排与计划

So he has ample time to make many arrangements and plans.

那么所以他也有充分的时间去做很多的安排与计划

So he also has ample time to make many arrangements and plans.

那么所以他有充分的时间去做很多的安排与计划

So he has ample time to make many arrangements and plans.

所以为什么在佩洛西离开台湾几个小时

So why just a few hours after Pelosi left Taiwan?

他解放军就宣布这个演习的这个各种的计划

The People's Liberation Army has announced various plans for this exercise.

那么然后照这个演习的计划来进行演习

Then proceed with the exercise according to this plan.

那么这个东西表示说

So this thing indicates that...

这其实是已经准备了蛮久的时间的

This has actually been prepared for quite a while.

那么范教授也请您解读一下

Then Professor Fan, please interpret as well.

这次的台海危机如何去影响到这个习近平

How will this Taiwan Strait crisis affect Xi Jinping?

就是已经波及到他的北戴河会议

It has already affected his Beidaihe meeting.

还有他即将对他很重要的中共而事

There is also the matter of the Chinese Communist Party, which will soon be very important to him.

您的解读

Your interpretation.

对 就是说他已经修改了宪法

Yes, that means he has already amended the constitution.

废除国家主席任期制

Abolish the term limit for the President.

那刚才丁教授也提到他要有一个正当性

Professor Ding just mentioned that he needs to have a legitimacy.

因为江泽民、胡锦涛都还在人事之间

Because Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao are still involved in personnel matters.

那他们都是遵循的

Then they all follow it.

在1978年改革开放之后

After the reform and opening-up in 1978

邓小平所做的那个宪法

The constitution that Deng Xiaoping created.

对国家主席的一个任期

A term for the President of the country.

就一任五年 两任十年

One term is five years, two terms is ten years.

问题是江泽民跟胡锦涛都遵守了这个独中加法

The problem is that both Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao adhered to this unique method of addition.

那你习近平凭什么

So what right does Xi Jinping have?

就是说改变

That is to say, change.

而且这个废除国家主席任期制是往一个倒退的道路在走

Moreover, the abolition of the presidential term system is heading down a path of regression.

是朝向一个北韩化的一个路径

It is a path towards becoming more like North Korea.

那事实上是跟世界各个民主国家来讲是背道而驰的

In fact, that is contrary to the democratic countries around the world.

那当然他的这个理由可能就是以要统一台湾

Of course, his reason might be to unify Taiwan.

包含他在这个2019年1月

Including him in January 2019.

他把这个九六共识等同于这个一国两制

He equates the 1992 Consensus with the One Country, Two Systems policy.

那在这个2019年的反送中之后

So after the anti-extradition movement in 2019...

2020年

Year 2020

他开始

He starts.

推动香港国安法

Promote the Hong Kong National Security Law.

从一国两制又迈向一国一制

From "one country, two systems" to "one country, one system."

那这些我认为他都是在

So I think he is all in.

为台湾实施一国两制做准备

Prepare for the implementation of "one country, two systems" in Taiwan.

但是相对的来讲

However, in contrast,

我觉得他也是过于一厢情愿

I think he is also being overly one-sided.

因为台湾终究是一个民主国家

Because Taiwan is ultimately a democratic country.

那一国两制台湾方案在台湾是普遍受到

The "one country, two systems" Taiwan plan is widely accepted in Taiwan.

甚至连国民党都反对

Even the Kuomintang opposes it.

那一般民众也

That general public also

无法接受

Unacceptable.

因为特别是他在香港已经变成一国一制了

Because especially he has already turned Hong Kong into a one country, one system.

台湾民众

Taiwanese people

更是无法接受

Even harder to accept.

那台湾是一个民主社会的情况之下

In that case, Taiwan is under the situation of a democratic society.

你如何期待一个

How do you expect one?

台湾的总统候选人说我愿意接受一国两制

The presidential candidate from Taiwan said they are willing to accept "one country, two systems."

那就算说他当选一个候选人他当选的话

Then it can be said that if he is elected as a candidate, he will be elected.

他也不可能自己跑去

He also cannot go by himself.

北京说我接受一国两制

Beijing said I accept the principle of "one country, two systems."

台湾民众一定把他罢免掉

The people of Taiwan will definitely remove him from office.

那所以说在一个民主程序是无法达到的情况之下

So it can be said that in a situation where a democratic process cannot be achieved.

那唯一就是用武力统一

The only way is to unify through force.

那武力统一当然从这次中共的这个军演他也在做这方面的准备

The military unification is certainly being prepared for this aspect with the CCP's military exercise this time.

但是我们可以看到

But we can see that.

反而引发的是台湾问题的

Instead, it triggered the issue of Taiwan.

国际化

Internationalization

那另外就是

Well then, another thing is...

台湾被全世界所关注

Taiwan is a focus of attention for the whole world.

以及美日澳印澳等国家

As well as countries such as the United States, Japan, Australia, and India.

对台湾未来在这个

Regarding Taiwan's future in this matter.

合作上特别是在军事合作的上

Cooperation, especially in terms of military collaboration.

可能反而是推进一大步

It may instead be a significant step forward.

所以习近平他

So Xi Jinping he

外号叫总加速师

Nickname called "Chief Accelerator"

他越不想达到的

The more he doesn't want to achieve it.

适得其反

Counterproductive

原因在此

The reason is here.

那么范教授其实我们看今年2022年对中共的政局算是关键的转折的一年就发生了这样子

So Professor Fan, we can see that 2022 is a key turning point for the CCP's political situation, and such events have occurred.

台海危机

Taiwan Strait Crisis

现在很多

Now a lot.

这包括的

This includes.

国外的主流媒体都形容为是第四次台海危机

Mainstream media abroad describe it as the fourth Taiwan Strait crisis.

你怎么看尤其是

What do you think especially about?

其实再过两天就是

In two days, it will be.

第二次台海危机

Second Taiwan Strait Crisis

823金门炮战的周年了

It's the anniversary of the Kinmen artillery battle on August 23rd.

那么只此台海情势加剧之际呢

So, at this moment when the situation in the Taiwan Strait intensifies...

能不能为我们回顾一下过去

Can you review the past for us?

历史上的三次台海危机

The three Taiwan Strait crises in history.

当时在历史上是怎么牵动后来的两岸还有美中台关系的发展

At that time in history, how did it influence the development of cross-strait relations and U.S.-China-Taiwan relations later on?

也请你帮我们做一番回顾

Please help us to do a review.

范教授

Professor Fan

这个台海危机基本上是

This Taiwan Strait crisis is basically

是美国

It is America.

美国跟两岸的这个

The United States and the situation with the two sides of the Taiwan Strait.

非常复杂的问题

A very complicated problem.

那么第一次台海危机在

So the first Taiwan Strait crisis occurred in.

差不多在1954年那么

Around 1954 then.

一个重点就是说毛泽东想要

One key point is that Mao Zedong wanted to.

这个

This

因为就是说1949年国民党离开台湾

Because the Kuomintang left Taiwan in 1949.

离开中国大陆以后

After leaving mainland China.

可是继续对这个

But continue to this.

对中国大陆派出各种的突击对货等等

Sending various raids and goods to mainland China, etc.

那么这个事情当然就会让这个

Then this matter will certainly make this...

毛泽东想要来解决这个问题那么所以

Mao Zedong wanted to solve this problem, so...

1954年

1954

1954年那么对金门炮击同时

In 1954, the shelling of Kinmen took place simultaneously.

所谓的对台州岛那么在在浙江北边的这个浙江外海

The so-called Taizhou Island is located in the outer sea of Zhejiang, to the north of Zhejiang.

几个岛那么

A few islands like that.

要进行解放军称为第一次的这个联合作战

This joint operation, referred to as the first by the People's Liberation Army, is to be carried out.

那么这次美国呢基本上

So this time, the United States basically...

协助了台湾撤退这个

Assisted in the retreat from Taiwan.

部署在这个台州岛上的各种的军

Various military forces deployed on this Taizhou Island.

特别是老百姓那么当然

Especially for the common people, of course.

部署在那边军队最后统统是这个阵亡了

The troops deployed over there all ended up dead.

那么

Then

第二次台海危机呢

The Second Taiwan Strait Crisis, right?

当然是1958年那么

Of course, it was in 1958 then.

第二次台海危机从中国大陆的说法那其实是一个很奇怪的说法

The statement about the Second Taiwan Strait Crisis from the perspective of mainland China is actually quite a strange assertion.

就是说

That is to say.

毛泽东想要来这个

Mao Zedong wanted to come here.

针对着苏伊士运河这个

Regarding the Suez Canal this

西方对这处理的不满那么想要来

The West is so dissatisfied with this handling that they want to come.

来表达这不满其实坦白说这个说法是

To express this dissatisfaction, to be frank, this statement is...

非常奇怪的

Very strange.

不过不管怎么就是说

Anyway, it means to say.

解放军对金门

The People's Liberation Army on Kinmen.

发动了这个几十万发的炮弹在非常短的时间内

Fired hundreds of thousands of shells in a very short time.

美军当然基本上也对台湾提供了

The U.S. military has certainly basically provided support to Taiwan as well.

大量的军事援助

Large amounts of military assistance.

可是就是说美国的援助是

But it means that the aid from the United States is...

直到这个离金门外海某一个地方以后呢

Until we reach a certain place outside the Golden Gate.

美军

U.S. military

他就不再协助台湾的军队中华民国军队

He will no longer assist the Taiwanese military of the Republic of China.

而是让中华民国军队自己把这些武器各种的

But it is to let the army of the Republic of China manage these weapons themselves in various ways.

后勤设施把运上金门岛

Logistical facilities transporting to Kinmen Island.

那么反过来就是说毛泽东他也知道

Then conversely, it means that Mao Zedong also knew.

经过韩战以后毛泽东也知道

After the Korean War, Mao Zedong also knew.

美国军力量是很强大他不想直接

The U.S. military is very powerful, and he doesn't want to confront it directly.

跟美国发生冲突所以呢

So there was a conflict with the United States.

他下令

He ordered.

只打中华民国的军队不管是军舰

Only attacking the military of the Republic of China, regardless of whether it is a warship.

或是等等

Or wait a moment.

可是他绝对不能打美军的任何军舰

But he absolutely cannot attack any U.S. military ships.

那么这是

So this is.

第二次台海危机但最后就是

The second Taiwan Strait crisis but in the end it is just

以所谓单打双不打来收场一直到1979年1月1号

It was concluded with the so-called "single strike, double non-strike" until January 1, 1979.

那么第三次台海危机当然是1995年96年

The third Taiwan Strait crisis, of course, was in 1995-1996.

这个因为李登辉访问美国那么

This is because Lee Teng-hui visited the United States.

但一个关键点就是说本来美国承诺不发

But a key point is that the United States originally promised not to issue.

签证给李登辉

Visa for Lee Teng-hui.

可是呢

But, you know...

美国行政部门在国会一个庞大的压力之下

The U.S. executive branch is under tremendous pressure from Congress.

瞬间改变这个

Instantly change this.

这个决定

This decision.

那么

Then

一方面

On one hand

北京领导人觉得自己被美国出卖了

Beijing leaders feel they have been betrayed by the United States.

那么

Then.

一方面他们想要

On one hand, they want to...

特别到1996年的时候呢

Especially in 1996.

那么

Then

他们希望能不能透过这种

They hope to see if they can achieve this through such means.

演习的方式来嚇阻台湾

Using exercises to deter Taiwan.

老百姓

The common people.

投票不要支持李登辉

Do not support Lee Teng-hui in the vote.

这个候选人等等

This candidate, etc.

所以那么

So then

也就是说第三次台海危机其实分两个阶段

In other words, the third Taiwan Strait crisis actually consists of two phases.

一个是1995年

One is 1995.

七月到八月

July to August

一个是1996年

One is in 1996.

一月到三月这个时间了

It's this time from January to March.

这个是三次基本上

This is basically three times.

这三次里面的美军的美国力量都比较强大

The American military power of the U.S. is quite strong in these three instances.

那么

Then

解放军基本上

The People's Liberation Army basically...

或者

or

对美国不想去

I don't want to go to the United States.

刻意去避开了

Deliberately avoided.

可是到这一次台海危机

But during this Taiwan Strait crisis...

其实

Actually

我觉得跟过去第一次台海危机有很大的不同

I think there is a big difference compared to the first Taiwan Strait Crisis in the past.

就是说

That is to say.

解放军想要刻意来挑战

The People's Liberation Army wants to deliberately challenge.

那么美军的能力

Then the capabilities of the U.S. military.

那么来让

Then let it be.

为什么因为

Why because

这里面先到就是说如果

What this means is if...

挑战美军

Challenge the U.S. military.

成功的话美国不来这个协助台湾的话呢

If the United States does not assist Taiwan successfully, then...?

那么可以

Then it’s fine.

透过国际宣传来认为就是说美国是没有公信力美国是不可能支持台湾的

Through international propaganda, it is believed that the United States has no credibility and is unlikely to support Taiwan.

所以这个东西

So this thing

也就是说当整个

That is to say, when the whole...

台海危机这随着整个时间变化不一样的时候呢

The Taiwan Strait crisis varies with time as circumstances change.

那么他所

Then he所

美中的关系

The relationship between the United States and China.

随着整个中国国力的崛起可能会越来越复杂

As the overall national strength of China rises, it may become increasingly complex.

我想这大概是

I think this is probably.

过去的几次台海危机的状况

The situation of previous Taiwan Strait crises.

非常感谢丁教授的这个带我们回顾了过去三次的

Thank you very much, Professor Ding, for leading us to review the past three times.

台海危机

Taiwan Strait Crisis

还有这一次呢接下来美中台关系怎么发展也要请教范教授我们

And this time, we also need to ask Professor Fan how the relations among the U.S., China, and Taiwan will develop next.

回顾过去三次台海危机能够给我们怎么样的历史启示来分析接下来这一次

What historical insights can we gain from reviewing the past three Taiwan Strait crises to analyze the upcoming one?

我算是第四次台海危机之后

I consider this to be after the fourth Taiwan Strait crisis.

美中台关系的走向尤其是

The direction of US-China-Taiwan relations, especially regarding...

拜习两人传出即将在

Xi and Biden are rumored to be about to meet.

印尼的集团体会面

The group meeting in Indonesia.

您的分析是什么

What is your analysis?

的确好我们看到就是说最近的这个美国的

Indeed, what we see is that recently in the United States...

印太司令他也提到就是这次中共的这个导弹设设11枚的东风

The Indo-Pacific commander also mentioned that this time the Chinese Communist Party deployed 11 Dongfeng missiles.

导弹那其中有多枚是穿越台湾领空

Some of the missiles crossed into Taiwan's airspace.

他也表达就是说这样的做法是

He also expressed that such a practice is

破坏了这个两岸的现状

It undermines the current situation across the strait.

当然从中共来讲他认为

Of course, from the perspective of the Chinese Communist Party, he believes that...

培洛西访问台湾

Pelosi visits Taiwan

是美国破坏的现状

The current situation is caused by the United States' destruction.

所以说他也要破坏现状

So he wants to disrupt the status quo as well.

就他说一个就是

He said just one.

导弹穿越台湾上空

Missiles pass through the sky over Taiwan.

第二个就是没有所谓的海峡中线

The second point is that there is no so-called median line in the Strait.

那所以也传出就本来美国要派这个

So it was reported that the US was originally going to send this.

军舰

Warship

穿越台海其实我们知道从今年以来

Crossing the Taiwan Strait, in fact, we have known since the beginning of this year.

每个月都有美国的军舰

Every month, there are American warships.

在台湾海峡进行这个穿越跟巡弋

Conducting this crossing and patrolling in the Taiwan Strait.

那后来当我们看到本来也说是雷根号后来也没有

Later, when we saw that it was originally said to be the Reagan, it ended up not being so.

那目前来讲也没有派行

Currently, there are no arrangements made.

军舰

Warship

那原因大概应该是说中共最近也比较少这方面的动作了

The reason is probably that the Chinese Communist Party has been taking fewer actions in this regard recently.

但是就说

But it said

到底这个现状

What is this situation after all?

或者台海中线存不存在

Whether the median line in the Taiwan Strait exists or not.

因为我们知道台海中线

Because we know the median line of the Taiwan Strait.

在过去

In the past

从96年台海危机之后

Since the Taiwan Strait crisis in 1996

它就变成是

It becomes.

台湾跟对岸的一个默契

A tacit understanding between Taiwan and the other side.

我们的这个军机或军舰基本上是在台海

Our military aircraft or warship is basically in the Taiwan Strait.

中线以东进行巡弋或者演训

Conducting patrols or drills east of the central line.

那我们的战斗机我们的军机基本上不穿越中线

Then our fighter jets and military aircraft basically do not cross the middle line.

甚至到金门

Even to the Golden Gate.

马祖去

Mazu goes.

这是一个默契

This is a tacit understanding.

那也是美方基本上他认同的

That is also basically what the US side agrees with.

他也认证

He also certifies.

那但是如果说中共现在说没有台辖中线的话

But if the CCP now says there is no median line in the Taiwan Strait...

那其实这会

Actually, this will...

制造一个

Create one.

相当大的一个

A quite large one.

问题

Question

就是美国认不认为这样的做法是

Does the United States think that such practices are...

破坏了这个

Destroyed this.

台海现状

Current Situation in the Taiwan Strait

那但是因为

That is, however, because...

对美国来讲

For the United States.

佩洛西访台他不是一个

Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, he is not one.

过去没有的案例我们看到1997年金瑞系他也是中央

We see a case that did not exist in the past in 1997, when the Jinrui system was also central.

所以美国认为中共是

So the United States considers the Chinese Communist Party to be...

这个反应过度

This is an overreaction.

而且就算说是

Even if it's said that...

佩洛西访台是一个

Pelosi's visit to Taiwan was a

破坏政治现状

Destroy the political status quo.

但是中共

But the Chinese Communist Party

如果说没有台海中线或者说

If we say there is no median line in the Taiwan Strait, or...

他的飞弹穿越台海上空

His missile crossed over the Taiwan Strait.

这是破坏了军事现状

This has disrupted the military status quo.

那破坏政治现状

That disrupts the political status quo.

你应该用政治方式来解决而不是用军事来解决

You should solve it politically rather than militarily.

那看起来中共是用军事

It seems that the CCP is using military force.

来解决政治现况的破坏

To address the destructive political situation.

那这个是

So this is...

美国军方恐怕无法接受的

The U.S. military is afraid it cannot accept this.

所以我觉得接下来

So I think next.

就要看

Just have to see.

如果拜登跟习近平见面

If Biden meets with Xi Jinping.

可能必须要讨论这个问题

It may be necessary to discuss this issue.

你说

You said.

海峡中线

Strait Median Line

是否存在

Does it exist?

中共是否

Does the Chinese Communist Party?

要遵守这个默契

We must adhere to this tacit agreement.

那否则的话我认为台海之间的

Otherwise, I think the situation between Taiwan and the mainland...

矛盾跟冲突会越来越多

Contradictions and conflicts will increase more and more.

那么丁教授你怎么看刚提到这个解放军打破了台海中线

So, Professor Ding, what do you think about the mention that the People's Liberation Army has crossed the median line in the Taiwan Strait?

还有试图建立这个新常态

There is also an attempt to establish this new normal.

还有这个

And this too.

拜习两人即将这个

Xi and Biden are about to do this.

传出可能要在印尼集团体来进行会面

It has been reported that there may be a meeting at the Indonesian group.

这一连串连在一起

This series is connected together.

从佩洛西议长访台解放军的经验建立新常态到

Establishing a new normal from the experiences of the People's Liberation Army following Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.

接下来美中党国领导人峰会这三者之间的

Next, the summit of the leaders of the U.S., China, and the Party-State.

关联刚才我们回顾了三者之间的关联

We just reviewed the connection between the three.

刚才我们回顾了三次的台海危机

Just now we reviewed the three Taiwan Strait crises.

你认为接下来这会怎么样的

What do you think will happen next?

去影响到美中台三方的走向呢

To influence the direction of the three parties: the U.S., China, and Taiwan.

丁教授

Professor Ding

其实这一次解放军

In fact, this time the People's Liberation Army

频繁的越过台海中线等等

Frequent crossing of the Taiwan Strait median line, etc.

那么从北京的角度

From Beijing's perspective.

这当然是建立一个新常态

This is certainly the establishment of a new normal.

可是问题就是说新常态是一个很麻烦的问题

But the problem is that the new normal is a very troublesome issue.

因为新常态

Because of the new normal.

北京可能

Beijing may.

台湾许多的朋友认为

Many friends in Taiwan believe that

北京将来可能会用这种

Beijing may use this in the future.

所谓的这个切香肠

The so-called slicing sausage.

的方式

the way

离台湾越来越近

Getting closer and closer to Taiwan.

那么让这新常态变得更持续化

Then let's make this new normal more sustainable.

可是站在台湾的立场

But from Taiwan's perspective.

就基于这个所谓的

Just based on this so-called

领空领海的安全来讲的话

Speaking of the security of airspace and territorial waters.

那当然我们不可能让这个解放军

Of course, we cannot let this People's Liberation Army.

不管是军机军舰

Whether it is military aircraft or warships.

变成把这种新常态

Become this new normal.

更把它常态化

Make it more routine.

所以站在台湾立场

So from Taiwan's perspective.

当然就是说会让

Of course, it means it will let.

我们会尽量让这个

We will try our best to make this.

怎么讲英文叫roll back

How do you say "roll back" in English?

把这个新台湾

Take this new Taiwan.

推翻

Overthrow

推过推回去

Push it back.

那在这种情形之下

In this situation then.

当然台海两岸的这个军机军舰的这个

Of course, the military aircraft and warships between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait.

这个会可能会常在空中出现

This meeting may often appear in the air.

那么在这种情形之下的话

In this situation,

那么擦枪走火的距离是蛮高的

The distance for an accidental discharge is quite large.

那么这第一点

So the first point is

第二点就是说

The second point is that

因为如果不管是解放军对台湾采取

Because whether the PLA takes action against Taiwan...

不管是这种所谓的新常

No matter what this so-called new normal is.

这个切香肠是灰色灰色战略的方式

This cutting sausage is a way of the gray gray strategy.

或者是未来大家预期中

Or it is as everyone expects in the future.

所谓大规模进攻

The so-called large-scale offensive

那么美国都必须基于台湾关系法

Then the United States must operate based on the Taiwan Relations Act.

采取某些行动

Take certain actions.

那么在这种情形之下的话

In this situation then,

美国也会势必要减弱

The United States will inevitably weaken as well.

所以也就是说在这种情形之下的话

So in other words, in this situation...

海峡的议题从过去政治

The topic of the Strait has shifted from past political issues.

比较属于政治导向

It is relatively politically oriented.

可能会变成更军事化

It may become more militarized.

那么台湾议题会变成美中竞争

So the Taiwan issue will become a point of competition between the U.S. and China.

那个主要最主要的焦点

The main, most important focus.

所以这东西也就是说

So this thing means...

会带来一个高度的不确定性

It will bring a high degree of uncertainty.

所以这个反馈也就是突显

So this feedback highlights.

就是说在未来的这个

That is to say, in the future.

印尼的所谓的集团体的这个高峰会议里面

In the so-called summit of the group in Indonesia.

那么拜登跟习近平不可避免

So Biden and Xi Jinping are inevitably connected.

一定要处理这个议题

This issue must be addressed.

那当然站在台湾立场

Of course, standing on Taiwan's position.

我们要表达我们的立场

We need to express our position.

就是说这种所谓新常态

That is to say, this so-called new normal.

是不可能被台湾接受的

It is impossible for Taiwan to accept.

那么所以这是我认为

So this is what I think.

就是说从现在起到11月

That is to say, from now until November.

在印尼的这个集团体高峰会

At the group summit in Indonesia.

可能会面临一些状况

May face some situations.

好的

Okay.

范教授想请教您的是刚才也提到了

Professor Fan wants to ask you about what was just mentioned.

现在这个解放军在这个佩洛西议长访台之后

Now, after Chairman Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, the People's Liberation Army...

连续多天的军演之后呢

After several consecutive days of military exercises, what happens next?

还持续不断的每一天都派超过两位数的驾司的军机

Every day, more than a dozen military aircraft pilots are continuously dispatched.

越过台海中线

Crossing the Taiwan Strait median line

这样的一个这个常态性的新常态

Such a new normal, which is a regular state of affairs.

是不是会让两岸之间的这个风险系数增加

Does it increase the risk factor between the two sides of the Strait?

甚至这个被迫让美国也卷入

Even this has forced the United States to get involved.

但是这样的情况

But such a situation

我们对照最近台湾民意基金会所发布的最新民调

We refer to the latest poll released by the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation.

似乎又不太一样

It seems a bit different again.

因为台湾的民众有将近八成

Because nearly 80% of the people in Taiwan

其实并不害怕这个现在解放军持续不断的军演

Actually, I am not afraid of the continuous military exercises conducted by the PLA.

而且又有将近半数的民众

And nearly half of the population

并不相信美国会派兵协防

I do not believe that the United States will send troops for defense assistance.

根据这个台湾关系法

According to the Taiwan Relations Act

想请教范世平教授您对这份民调的解读

I would like to ask Professor Fan Shiping for your interpretation of this poll.

对这个民调展现出台湾人好像并不害怕

The poll shows that Taiwanese people seem to be unafraid.

这个中共的军演

This military exercise of the Chinese Communist Party.

那我觉得当然有几个理由

I think there are indeed several reasons.

一个就是这已经是中共对台的文攻武吓

One is that this is already the CCP's psychological warfare and military intimidation against Taiwan.

已经是台湾人已经很习惯了

Taiwanese people have already gotten used to it.

这已经不是第一次了

This is not the first time.

常常都有

There are often.

那接着当然

Then of course.

就是说我们还是对我们的国军是抱有希望

That is to say, we still have hope for our national army.

我们有信心

We are confident.

那第三个当然就是蔡英文也展现出她的冷静

The third point is of course that Tsai Ing-wen also demonstrates her calmness.

沉着的态度

Calm attitude

那第四个当然就是说

The fourth one, of course, is to say.

虽然很多人认为台湾如果中共对台动武

Although many people believe that if the Communist Party of China uses military force against Taiwan...

美国不一定会除兵

The United States may not necessarily disarm.

但是提供相关的协助

But provide relevant assistance.

包含像这次乌克兰的战争的时候

Including situations like the current war in Ukraine.

美国提供乌克兰相当重要的军事情报

The United States provides Ukraine with quite important military intelligence.

或者是提供相当的武器系统来协助

Or provide equivalent weapon systems to assist.

那当然就是这次的中共导弹射击也进入到日本的经济海域

Of course, this time the Chinese Communist Party's missile launch has also entered Japan's economic waters.

所以未来这个

So in the future, this

是有一个对日本的

There is a connection to Japan.

美台的合作可能会相当的增加

The cooperation between the United States and Taiwan may increase significantly.

我想这也是台湾民众有信心的地方

I think this is also where the people of Taiwan have confidence.

那当然我们看到这次的确就是说

Of course, what we see this time is indeed.

它的这个两岸的这个军舰

Its military ship across the two shores.

就是很近的地方

It's just a very close place.

我们就是不让它进入

We just won't let it in.

也彼此交在那边僵持

They are also in a stalemate over there.

这个画面过去所没有的

This scene has never existed before.

那当然还有一点就是说中共它还是有所克制

Of course, there's also one point that the Communist Party of China is still somewhat restrained.

例如说它并没有在我们的领海范围内

For example, it is not within our territorial waters.

就是20海里领海范围内进行军演

It is conducting military exercises within a 20 nautical mile territorial sea range.

那虽然它演习结束之后

Although it ended after the exercise.

它的军飞机还是在台海中线有穿越

Its military aircraft still cross the Taiwan Strait median line.

但是还是在这个海峡中线的这个附近

But still near the midline of this strait.

并没有再往东再大规模的推进

There has not been further large-scale advancement to the east.

所以我认为它还是在一个风险管控的范围之内

So I believe it is still within the scope of risk control.

好的 严祥

Alright, Yan Xiang.

请丁淑范教授解析一下这一份台湾民意基金会

Please ask Professor Ding Shufan to analyze this report from the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation.

在佩洛西议长访问完台湾之后

After Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan

8月16号这关键时间点做的最新民调

The latest opinion poll conducted at this critical time point on August 16th.

刚提到了这个解放军持续的这个越过台海中线

Just mentioned the ongoing crossing of the Taiwan Strait median line by the PLA.

然后感觉上这个军事演习对台没有结束的时间表

Then it seems that this military exercise has no timeline for ending regarding Taiwan.

有61%的民众认为不能够接受在台湾

61% of the public believe that it is unacceptable in Taiwan.

但是同时有78.3%的台湾民众

However, at the same time, 78.3% of the Taiwanese public

对于这样的大规模实弹演习并不感到害怕

I am not afraid of such large-scale live ammunition exercises.

再来也要谈一下这个

We also need to talk about this again.

台湾民众对美国的这个立场

The Taiwanese people's stance on this matter from the United States.

有47.5%的民众并不相信台湾

47.5% of the public do not believe in Taiwan.

会派兵解放台湾

Will send troops to liberate Taiwan.

张庆您解读这三份数字好吗

Zhang Qing, could you interpret these three pieces of data?

丁教授

Professor Ding

OK 基本上就是不管是

OK basically it doesn't matter whether it's

对无法接受解放军在台湾附近的演习

Opposed to the PLA's exercises near Taiwan.

或是等等的 那么基本上这其实是

Or maybe later, so basically this is actually...

在过去二三十年基本上是相当一致的

In the past twenty to thirty years, it has been basically quite consistent.

就是说从很多的民调看就是说

That is to say, from many polls, it shows that...

台湾的这个民调是相当一致的

This poll from Taiwan is quite consistent.

就是说从很多的民调看就是说台湾的这个民调是相当一致的

That is to say, from many polls, the polling in Taiwan is quite consistent.

这个自我认同度在提高的

This level of self-identification is improving.

那么因此对于解放军任何的演习

Therefore, any exercises conducted by the People's Liberation Army...

当然都是不接受的

Of course, none of them are acceptable.

这个其实坦白讲我们倒不觉得任何的意外

To be honest, we don't actually feel any surprise about this.

那当然比较值得讨论的就是说

Of course, what is more worth discussing is...

认为美国会这个派兵协助台湾的

It is believed that the United States will send troops to assist Taiwan.

现在已经降到50%以下了

Now it has dropped to below 50%.

那么基本上

So basically

这是一个跟过去是比较不一样的

This is something quite different from the past.

这的确是从去年美军撤出阿富汗以后

This is indeed after the withdrawal of the U.S. military from Afghanistan last year.

就开始有个转变

There started to be a transformation.

可是这东西我觉得

But I feel that this thing

这个东西就是说看你怎么去解读

This thing is all about how you choose to interpret it.

我个人认为

I personally think

我个人解读起来

In my personal interpretation.

过去我就不认为美国会出兵

In the past, I didn't think the United States would send troops.

因为从韩战以后

Because since the Korean War

这是第一个

This is the first one.

从韩战以及越战以后

After the Korean War and the Vietnam War.

美国真的对出兵的意愿

The U.S. really has the willingness to deploy troops.

其实基本上在下降

In fact, it is basically on the decline.

可是问题就是说

But the problem is that...

美国因为整个军事能力是蛮强大的

The United States has a very strong overall military capability.

那么他虽然不出兵

Although he does not deploy troops,

可是他可以透过很多其他的方式

But he can do it through many other ways.

来对台湾提供协助

Come to assist Taiwan.

所以就像在乌克兰那种状况之下

So, just like in the situation in Ukraine.

所以也就是说

So that means

怎么讲呢

How to put it?

就是说针对这个比较下降的

That is to say, regarding this relatively declining situation.

这个数字

This number

基本上我是不意外

Basically, I'm not surprised.

可是反过来就是说

But conversely, it means that...

我们还是要看就是到底

We still need to see what it really is.

当实际战争发生的时候

When actual war breaks out.

美国到底对台湾提供什么样的协助

What kind of assistance does the United States actually provide to Taiwan?

那么我觉得这可能是更实际一点

Then I think this might be more practical.

感谢丁教授的分析

Thank you, Professor Ding, for your analysis.

也请范教授解读一下

Please also ask Professor Fan to interpret it.

刚才丁教授认为说

Just now, Professor Ding thought that nói.

这一次的这个民调当中

In this poll this time.

翻进的是这个

What was flipped in is this.

台湾民众相不相信

Do the people of Taiwan believe or not?

美国会派兵协防台湾

The U.S. will send troops to assist in the defense of Taiwan.

这部分的数字有所降低

The numbers in this section have decreased.

你怎么看这中间的落差跟变化

What do you think about the gap and changes in between?

对这个台湾民意基金会

Regarding this Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation.

我们可以看到就是说

What we can see is that

他提到就是觉得

He mentioned that he feels.

美国会不会来对台湾进行援助

Will the United States come to aid Taiwan?

但是他跟前几个月来比

But compared to a few months ago, he...

是有提

There is a proposal.

三月份的时候是55.9

In March, it was 55.9.

是不相信

Do not believe.

这个现在是说是相信的是34

This is now said to be believed to be 34.

那现在相信的是有提高到44

Now what is believed is that it has risen to 44.

那不相信的话是

Then, if you don't believe it, what is it?

47%

47%

降到4.4

Decreased to 4.4

所以说看起来跟三月份来比的话

So it seems that when comparing to March...

不相信是减少

Not believing is a reduction.

相信是增加

Belief is an increase.

那我不晓得是不是因为

Then I don't know if it's because of

对于最近有很多的

There have been many recently.

包含佩洛西拉或者一些

Includes Pelosi or some.

川中议员访台有影响

The visit of Sichuan lawmakers to Taiwan has an impact.

另外就是对日本来讲

Additionally, for Japan

日本会不会在中共对台动武的时候

Will Japan intervene when the Chinese Communist Party uses force against Taiwan?

提供必要的援助

Provide necessary assistance.

那相信跟非常相信将近六成

So believe and strongly believe account for nearly sixty percent.

等于说那不相信是三成低

It means that the disbelief is three percent lower.

那表示说对日本的信赖程度

That indicates the level of trust in Japan.

还高于这个美国

Higher than this America.

所以说我觉得这个也是一个有趣的

So I think this is also an interesting one.

就是说

That is to say

是比较相信比较多的

It is more about believing more.

所以这个但是总的来讲

So this, but overall...

不管如何

No matter what.

台湾未来的防卫还是要靠自己

Taiwan's future defense still relies on itself.

那是最根本的

That is the most fundamental.

这个自己的国家自己就

This is one's own country, one should take care of it oneself.

就是一般民众也不会天真的认为

Ordinary people would not naively believe that.

美军会在直接派兵

The U.S. military will directly send troops.

但是有没有可能就像刚刚讲过的

But is it possible, as mentioned just now?

95 96年台海危机的时候

During the Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1995 and 1996.

美国当中共有蠢动的情况的时候

When there are fluctuating situations in the United States.

派遣航空母舰战斗群到台海

Dispatching an aircraft carrier strike group to the Taiwan Strait.

来作为一个威者

Come as a powerful person.

那这个有没有可能

So is this possible?

我觉得是可以再度观察的

I think it can be observed again.

继续接下来观察的一个重点

A key focus for continued observation.

究竟美国的军舰会不会再次穿越台海

Will American warships cross the Taiwan Strait again?

那个丁教授刚才范教授提出

Professor Ding just now mentioned Professor Fan.

一个有趣的点

An interesting point.

我们刚才可能还没有想到

We might not have thought of that just now.

就是这个数据里面还包括了

This data also includes.

好像台湾民众现在相信日本会

It seems that the people of Taiwan now believe that Japan will...

这个介入的这个比例

The proportion of this intervention.

好像大于这个相信美国会派兵宪法

It seems that this is greater than the belief that the United States will send troops to uphold the constitution.

不晓得你怎么看啊

I don't know what you think.

那么另外还有最后一份是有关于

Then the last one is about...

台湾人在这个佩洛西访台之后

The Taiwanese people after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.

解放军军演之后的统独倾向

The trend of unification and independence after the PLA military exercises.

变化不大但是略微有变化的是

The changes are not significant, but there are slight differences.

支持独立的下降一点点

Support for independence has decreased slightly.

然后维持现状和支持两岸统一的

Then maintain the status quo and support cross-strait reunification.

反而都往上增加

On the contrary, they all increased.

不晓得您对这个统独倾向

I don't know your stance on the unification and independence issue.

在军演之后的变化您是怎么见到的

What changes have you observed after the military exercises?

解读的呢

What about the interpretation?

也很快跟我们谈一下

Let's talk about it quickly as well.

范教授

Professor Fan

在台湾类似的这种民意调查

Similar public opinion polls in Taiwan.

非常的多

Very many.

那么我们从长期的趋势来看的话

So, if we look at it from a long-term trend perspective.

我所服务的政治大学

The political university I serve.

有一个选举研究中心

There is an election research center.

他们每半年会做一个这种

They do one of these every six months.

类似的民调

Similar polls

那么已经持续了二十几年

So it has already lasted for more than twenty years.

好因为时间关系

Good, because of time constraints.

我们最后一点点时间

We have the last bit of time.

留给我们范视频教授

Leave us a sample video, Professor Fan.

也回应这个民调

Also respond to this poll.

跟我们做最后的总结

Make the final summary with us.

范教授最后一分钟

Professor Fan's last minute.

我们看到这次国民党

We see the Kuomintang this time.

派的这个夏立宁副主席

Vice Chairman Summer Lin of the faction.

到大陆去访问

Visit the mainland.

那前两天他的大陆事务部主任

The director of his mainland affairs department those couple of days ago.

参加了海峡的这个研讨会

Participated in this seminar across the strait.

他提到国民党的立场是

He mentioned that the Kuomintang's position is

这个反对台独

This opposes Taiwanese independence.

然后九二共识

Then the 1992 Consensus.

但是我们知道

But we know.

什么是台独

What is Taiwan independence?

中共现在是把连维持现状都算台独

The CCP now considers even maintaining the status quo as Taiwan independence.

就只要你不支持统一就算台独

As long as you do not support unification, it's considered Taiwan independence.

那就变成说

Then it becomes saying

那样的比例就非常高了

That kind of ratio is very high.

甚至大将近是八成五到九成

Even the general is nearly eighty-five to ninety percent.

那难道这些人都算台独吗

Does that mean all these people are pro-Taiwan independence?

第二个九二共识刚讲过

The second "1992 Consensus" has just been mentioned.

习近平

Xi Jinping

已经把它载化成一国两制了

It has already been transformed into one country, two systems.

那这个在台湾可能就会有很大的争议

Then this may cause a lot of controversy in Taiwan.

就是说这样的九二共识

That is to say, this kind of 1992 Consensus.

难道台湾民众要接受吗

Do the people of Taiwan have to accept this?

所以我觉得

So I think.

虽然国民党提出的口号跟过去没有改变

Although the slogans put forward by the Kuomintang have not changed from the past.

可是中共对于反台独跟对台独的定义

However, the CCP's definition of anti-Taiwan independence and Taiwan independence.

跟所谓的九二共识的定义是越来越窄的

The definition of the so-called 1992 Consensus is becoming increasingly narrow.

好的我们今天非常感谢范世平教授

Okay, we are very grateful to Professor Fan Shiping today.

还有丁树范教授两位

There are also Professors Ding Shufan and two others.

给我们带来这么深入的讨论和分析

Bringing us such in-depth discussion and analysis.

感谢二位

Thank you both.

OK拜拜

OK bye-bye

要感谢我们听众和观众朋友

We would like to thank our listeners and audience friends.

我们的收听和收看

Our listening and viewing.

提醒您

Reminder to you

今天来宾发表的是个人观点

Today's guest is expressing a personal opinion.

不代表美国之音

Does not represent Voice of America.

我是樊东宁

I am Fan Dongning.

祝各位平安

Wishing everyone peace.

我们下次见再会

We will meet again next time.

拜拜

Goodbye.