Séminaire - The Great Acceleration and the Anthropocene

les séminaires du Collège de France.

the seminars of the Collège de France.

...

Please provide the text you would like me to translate from French to English.

Je vais vous le dire, pour moi, il est vraiment un modèle et une inspiration.

I will tell you, for me, he is truly a role model and an inspiration.

Et je dirais qu'à des moments où je me rends parfois un peu déprimé

And I would say that at times when I feel a little depressed.

sur le état de l'histoire académique et sur les possibilités d'y arriver,

on the state of academic history and on the possibilities of achieving it,

John est quelqu'un de qui je pense pour me garder en train.

John is someone I think of to keep myself going.

Il est vraiment une inspiration pour ce qui est possible en tant qu'historien.

He is truly an inspiration for what is possible as a historian.

Donc, c'est vraiment personnellement très important

So, it is really very important to me personally.

qu'il ait accepté de venir à travers l'océan.

that he agreed to come across the ocean.

Son leadership et son involvement dans la question de l'anthropocène,

His leadership and his involvement in the issue of the Anthropocene,

en tant qu'historien qui a été concrètement impliqué dans cette conversation,

as a historian who has been concretely involved in this conversation,

c'est extrêmement important et c'est très timide.

It is extremely important and it is very shy.

Et donc, je pense que c'est un stade très important

And so, I think it's a very important stage.

et une opportunité pour lui de participer

and an opportunity for him to participate

et de nous aider à participer à cette conversation

and to help us participate in this conversation

sur ce que signifie l'anthropocène,

on what the Anthropocene means,

où il est et où il pourrait aller.

where he is and where he could go.

Donc, c'est un privilège et une opportunité.

So, it's a privilege and an opportunity.

S'il vous plaît, rejoignez-moi en donnant un très chaud collège

Please join me in giving a very warm welcome.

de fonds.

of funds.

Bienvenue à John McNeill.

Welcome to John McNeill.

Merci beaucoup, Kyle.

Thank you very much, Kyle.

Malheureusement, ça fait longtemps que je n'ai pas parlé français

Unfortunately, it's been a long time since I've spoken French.

et alors, je m'excuse de parler anglais.

And so, I apologize for speaking English.

Donc, cette lecture est intentée de suivre

So, this reading is intended to follow

la lecture que le professeur Harper a présentée

the lecture that Professor Harper presented

et que je vais parler

and that I am going to speak

sur l'anthropocène

on the Anthropocene

et un concept allié,

and an allied concept,

l'accélération du grand.

the acceleration of the large.

Et je vais essayer d'expliquer

And I will try to explain.

la justification

the justification

pour ces concepts

for these concepts

et je vais réviser

and I am going to revise

quelques débats

some debates

et discussions

and discussions

et désagréments

and inconveniences

sur, en particulier,

on, in particular,

le concept de l'anthropocène.

the concept of the Anthropocene.

Je fais cela

I do this.

en tant que historien

as a historian

mais aussi

but also

en tant que membre

as a member

d'une chose appelée

of a thing called

l'équipe d'emploi d'anthropocène.

the employment team of the Anthropocene.

L'équipe d'emploi d'anthropocène

The anthropocene employment team.

est une équipe

is a team

de 37 scientifiques et d'étudiants,

of 37 scientists and students,

la plupart desquels géologues,

most of whom geologists,

qui, pendant 15 ans,

who, for 15 years,

ont essayé

have tried

d'amasser

to gather

l'évidence

the obviousness

pour ou contre

for or against

le concept de l'anthropocène

the concept of the Anthropocene

en tant qu'intervalle officiel

as the official interval

de temps,

of time,

d'intervalle

of interval

à l'intervalle

in the interval

dans la planète géologique.

in the geological planet.

Plus tôt cette semaine,

Earlier this week,

la équipe d'emploi d'anthropocène

the anthropocène employment team

a été

has been

dissolu.

dissolved.

Nous n'existons plus

We no longer exist.

officiellement.

officially.

Donc,

So,

le professeur Harper

Professor Harper

explique

explain

quelques aspects

some aspects

de la

of the

géologie

geology

concept of the Anthropocène.

concept of the Anthropocene.

This is a general

This is a general.

overview.

aperçu.

It is, geologically speaking,

It is, geologically speaking,

a

a

proposed

proposé

revision

revision

to the geological timescale.

to the geological timescale.

One that

One that

approximately 10 days ago

approximately 10 days ago

was formally

was formally

rejected

rejected

by the

by the

subcommission

subcommission

on Quaternary

on Quaternary

Stratigraphy.

Stratigraphy.

Stratigraphy is the

Stratigraphy is the

science within geology

science dans la géologie

that pays attention

that pays attention

to the strata,

to the strata,

the layers

the layers

of rock and sediment

of rock and sediment

and ice.

et de la glace.

And the subcommission

And the subcommission

on Quaternary Stratigraphy

on Quaternary Stratigraphy

pays attention

pays attention - pays attention

to the last

to the last

2.7 million

2.7 million

years, the

the years

Quaternary or Quaternary

Quaternary or Quaternary

Era.

Era.

And that subcommission

And that subcommission

voted against

voted against

the concept of the Anthropocene

the concept of the Anthropocene

by a

by a

margin of 12 against

margin of 12 against

and 4

and 4

in favor.

in favor.

And that vote

And that vote.

was then confirmed

was then confirmed

by a higher body

by a higher authority

within the International

within the International

Union of the Geological Sciences.

Union of the Geological Sciences.

So, temporarily,

So, temporarily,

the Anthropocene is dead

the Anthropocene is dead

as a

as a

formalized

formalized

unit

unit

of geological

of geological

time.

time.

But the Anthropocene

But the Anthropocene

is also the recognition

is also the recognition

that

that

the Earth system,

the Earth system,

the Earth operating

the Earth operating

system, all the

system, all the

biogeochemical cycles

biogeochemical cycles

that regulate the Earth,

that regulate the Earth,

are operating differently

sont en fonctionnement différent

now than they

now than they

have done

have done

during the Holocene.

during the Holocene.

The Holocene is the last

The Holocene is the last.

11,700 years.

11,700 years.

Officially, we are still

Officially, we are still

in the Holocene.

in the Holocene.

The Anthropocene

The Anthropocene

is also the

is also the

recognition that

recognition that

it is

it is

primarily

primarily

a

a

human activity

human activity

that is responsible

that is responsible

for the fact that

for the fact that

the Earth system

the Earth system

is no longer

is no longer

operating

operating

the way that it did

the way it did

for the last

for the last

11,700 years.

11,700 years.

And it's also

And it's also

the recognition that

the recognition that

there are

there are

in the rocks

dans les rochers

and sediments

et sédiments

good markers

good markers

that indicate

that indicate

the fact that

the fact that

there are

there are

before and after.

avant et après.

Before the advent

Before the advent

of the Anthropocene

of the Anthropocene

and after the advent

and after the advent

of the Anthropocene.

of the Anthropocene.

And that these markers

And that these markers

will endure

will endure

for thousands

pour des milliers

and in cases

et dans les cas

for millions

for millions

of years.

of years.

That's what I understand

C'est ce que je comprends.

the Anthropocene

the Anthropocene

to mean.

to mean.

In the last

In the last

10 years or so,

about 10 years,

the word has been

the word has been

used

utilisé

in the modern

in the modern

world

monde

for many

pour beaucoup

and many

et beaucoup

many

many

people.

people.

But the

Mais le

term

term

Anthropocene

Anthropocene

has become

has become

routine

routine

and

and

its

its

meaning

meaning

has become

has become

looser

looser

and more

et plus

variable

variable

and different

and different

people use

people use

it to

it to

mean

moyen

different

different

things.

things.

And most

And most

of the

of the

scholars

scholars

who use

who uses

the term

the term

Anthropocene

Anthropocene

come from

come from

literature

literature

and philosophy,

and philosophy,

not from

not from

the natural

the natural

sciences,

sciences,

not from

not from

geology

geology

and not

and not

from history.

from history.

And they use

Et ils utilisent

it often

it often

to mean

signifier

one of these

l'un de ceux-ci

three things.

trois choses.

The current

The current

environmental

environmental

crisis

crisis

or current

or current

climate change

climate change

or even

or even

more loosely

more loosely

still

still

nowadays.

aujourd'hui.

This image

This image

by the way,

by the way,

this is

this is

artificially

artificiellement

generated.

generated.

There is a

There is a

sign that

sign that

looks a great

looks great

deal like this

deal like this

outside of

outside of

the city

the city

of Las Vegas.

of Las Vegas.

The gambling

The gambling

capital of

capital of

the United

the United

States

States

which says

which says

welcome

Welcome

to

to

the fabulous

the fabulous

Las Vegas.

Las Vegas.

Somebody

Somebody

changed this

changed this

to the

to the

Anthropocene

Anthropocene

era,

era,

not recognizing

not recognizing

that the

that the

Anthropocene

Anthropocene

is proposed

is proposed

as an

as an

epoch

epoch

which is

which is

shorter

shorter

than an

than an

era.

era.

Not so

Not so

important.

important.

This is

This is

what the

what the

international

international

geological

geological

time scale

time scale

looks like

looks like

and

and

if

if

the

the

Anthropocene

Anthropocene

were

were

adopted

adopted

it would

it would

appear

appear

right here.

juste ici.

This is

This is

the most

the most

recent

recent

moment

moment

and here's

and here's

the

the

quaternary

quaternary

or

or

quaternary

quaternary

these last

these last

2.7

2.7

million

million

years

years

and the

and the

older

older

eras

eras

of time

of time

way back

way back

to four

to four

and a

and a

half

half

billion

billion

years

years

ago.

ago.

So

So

this is

this is

what

what

the

the

international

international

union

union

of

of

the

the

geological

geological

sciences

sciences

controls

contrôles

and

and

this is

this is

what it

what it

has

has

this

this

month

month

declined

declined

to

to

change.

change.

I

I

disagree

disagree

with

with

that

that

decision.

decision.

I

I

was

was

among

among

those

ceux-là

members

members

of the

of the

Anthropocene

Anthropocene

working

travaillant

group

group

who

who

favored

favored

the

the

formal

formal

adoption

adoption

of

of

the Anthropocene

the Anthropocene

for reasons

pour des raisons

that I

that I

will begin

will begin

to explain

to explain

to you

to you

now.

now.

So

So

the

the

Anthropocene

Anthropocene

working

working

group

group

made

made

an official

an official

case

case

that

that

the

the

best

best

marker

marker

for

for

the

the

beginning

beginning

of the

of the

Anthropocene

Anthropocene

lies

mensonges

in the

in the

sediments

sediments

of this

of this

lake

lake

just

just

west

west

of

of

Toronto,

Toronto,

Canada.

Canada.

This

This

is a

is a

lake

lake

that

that

has

has

annual

annual

sediments

sediments

which

which

makes

makes

a very

a very

good

good

archive

archive

of

of

biological

biological

and

and

geological

géologique

and

and

geochemical

geochemical

change

change

through

à travers

time.

time.

It's

It’s

like

like

having

having

an

year

archive

archive

without

sans

rats

rats

and

and

mice

mice

in

in

it.

it.

It's

It's

like

like

having

having

an

year

archive

archive

without

sans

politicians

politicians

who

who

steal

steal

documents

documents

it's

it's

a wonderful

a wonderful

natural

natural

archive.

archive.

I'm

I'm

not sure

not sure

if

if

France

France

has

has

politicians

politicians

that

that

steal

steal

documents

documents

but

goal

in

in

the

the

United

United

States

États

we

we

do.

do.

So

So

Crawford

Crawford

Lake

Lake

is a

is a

very

very

small

small

lake.

lake.

Here

Here

is

is

one

one

of

of

the

the

cores

cores

taken

pris

from

from

its

its

sediments

sediments

and

and

you

you

can

can

actually

actually

see

see

the

the

annual

annual

layers

layers

in

in

the

the

bottom

bottom

of

of

the

the

lake.

lake.

And

And

right

droit

around

around

1950

1950

or

or

so,

so,

the

the

strata

strata

change

change

and

and

they

they

begin

begin

to

to

include

include

much

much

larger

larger

quantities

quantities

of

of

plutonium.

plutonium.

They

Ils

are

are

recording

recording

the

the

beginning

beginning

of

of

nuclear

nuclear

testing,

testing,

especially

surtout

hydrogen

hydrogen

bombs.

bombes.

The

The

argument

argument

that the

that the

Anthropocene

Anthropocene

best

best

marker

marker

is in

is in

Lake

Lake

Crawford

Crawford

and

and

the

the

argument

argument

that around

that around

1950

1950

is the

is the

best

best

birthday

birthday

for

for

the

the

Anthropocene

Anthropocene

doesn't

doesn't

mean

mean

that

that

the

the

Anthropocene

Anthropocene

was

was

caused

caused

by

by

plutonium

plutonium

or

or

caused

caused

by

by

nuclear

nuclear

testing.

testing.

All

All

it

it

means

means

is

is

that's

that is

the

the

best

best

marker.

marker.

Other

Other

things

choses

that I'll

that I'll

refer to

refer to

in a

in a

moment

moment

I

I

maintain

maintain

are

are

better

better

causes

causes

of

of

the

the

Anthropocene.

Anthropocene.

Here

Here

are

are

some

some

of

of

the

the

additional

additional

places

places

around

autour

the

the

world

monde

where

où

there

there

are

are

very

very

good

good

markers.

markers.

There's

Il y a

I

I

think

think

10

10

or

or

12

12

of

of

these

these

that

that

the

the

Anthropocene

Anthropocene

working

travaillant

group

group

considered

considered

in

in

detail

detail

before

avant

deciding

deciding

that

that

Crawford

Crawford

Lake

Lake

was

was

the

the

best.

best.

The

The

second

second

best

best

is

is

here

here

in

in

Manchuria

Manchuria

Si

If

Heilong

Heilong

Yuan

Yuan

Mar.

Mar.

And

And

so

so

that's

c'est ça

officially

officiellement

proposed

proposed

and rejected

et rejeté

as an

as an

alternate

alternate

G

G

SSP.

SSP.

I

I

should

should

explain

explain

G

G

SSP

SSP

global

global

stratigraphic

stratigraphic

section

section

and

and

point.

point.

This

This

is

is

not

not

fully

fully

a

a

requirement

requirement

but

but

it

it

is

is

a

a

desideratum

desideratum

for

for

stratigraphy.

stratigraphy.

Some

Some

sort

sort

of

of

marker

marker

in

in

sediments

sediments

or

or

rock

rock

or

or

ice

ice

that

that

shows

shows

before

avant

and

and

after.

après.

And

And

this

this

is an

is an

example

example

from

de

Japan

Japan

of

of

a

a

G

G

SSP

SSP

that

that

marks

marks

the

the

beginning

beginning

of

of

an

one

interval

interval

of

of

geological

geological

time

time

called

called

the

the

Chibonian.

Chibonian.

And

And

nobody

personne

cares

cares

about

about

the

the

Chibonian.

Chibonian.

It's

It's

not

not

controversial

controversial

at all

not at all

but

goal

it

it

was

was

officially

officially

ratified

ratified

by

by

the

the

International

International

Union

Union

of the

of the

Geological

Geological

Sciences

Sciences

about

about

three

three

years

years

ago.

ago.

So

So

I'm

I'm

going to

going to

shift

shift

for a

for a

moment

moment

and

and

talk

talk

about

about

a

a

different

different

but

goal

related

related

concept

concept

the

the

great

great

acceleration

acceleration

because

because

it is

it is

in my

in my

view

view

the

the

great

great

acceleration

acceleration

that is

that is

responsible

responsible

for

for

creating

creating

the

the

Anthropocene.

Anthropocene.

By

By

great

great

acceleration

acceleration

I

I

mean

mean

and

and

others

autres

who

who

use

use

it

it

mean

mean

a

a

change

change

beginning

beginning

in the

in the

1950s

1950s

and running

et en cours

through

à travers

the

the

1960s

1960s

and

and

70s

70s

at

at

least

least

and

and

maybe

peut-être

beyond

beyond

that

that

in

in

which

which

an

year

enormous

enormous

expansion

expansion

of

of

various

various

forces

forces

changing

changing

global

global

ecology

ecology

and

and

I list

I list

some of

some of

them

them

here

here

water

water

use

use

energy

energy

use

use

the

the

size

size

of

of

the

the

economy

economy

as

as

measured

measured

by

by

GDP

GDP

the

the

size

size

of

of

the

the

human

human

population

population

the

the

quantities

quantities

of

of

fertilizer

fertilizer

in

in

use

use

the

the

amounts

amounts

of

of

paper

paper

produced

produit

and so

et donc

on

we

and so

et donc

forth

forth

and the

and the

big

big

point

dot

here

here

is

is

that

that

if

if

you

you

aggregate

aggregate

all

all

these

these

measures

measures

it's

it is

in

in

the

the

1950s

1950s

that

that

the

the

slope

slope

turns

tours

sharply

sharply

upward

upward

and

and

this

this

is

is

why

pourquoi

I

I

call

call

it

it

the

the

great

great

acceleration

acceleration

these

these

are

are

socio-economic

socio-economic

driving

driving

forces

forces

this

this

chart

chart

is

is

direct

direct

indicators

indicators

of

of

global

global

environmental

environmental

change

change

and

and

it's

it is

also

also

important

important

to

to

look

look

at

at

the

the

ocean

ocean

acidification

acidification

which

which

is

is

this

this

big

big

orange

orange

band

band

in

in

the

the

middle

middle

which

which

very

very

interestingly

intéressantement

shifts

shifts

from

from

basically

basically

zero

zero

in

in

the

the

1840s

1840s

to

to

much

much

higher

higher

levels

levels

this

this

represents

represents

the

the

onset

onset

of

of

intensive

intensive

coal

coal

use

use

primarily

primarily

in

in

Great

Great

Britain

Britain

and

and

Europe

Europe

because

because

it is

it is

through

à travers

the

the

burning

brûlant

of coal

of coal

and

and

the

the

release

release

of

of

sulfur

sulfur

dioxide

dioxide

and

and

carbon

carbon

dioxide

dioxide

into

into

the

the

atmosphere

atmosphere

that

that

the

the

oceans

oceans

have

have

acquired

acquired

since

since

1840

1840

so

so

much

much

additional

additional

acid

acid

is

is

quite

quite

a

a

large

large

scale

scale

change

change

but

goal

again

again

if

if

you

you

accept

accept

ocean

ocean

acidification

acidification

most

most

of

of

the

the

other

other

indicators

indicators

show

show

a sharp

a sharp

upturn

rebound

in

in

their

their

intensity

intensité

magnitude

magnitude

starting

starting

in

in

the

the

21st

21st

century

century

and

and

then

then

in the

in the

1960s

1960s

nearly

nearly

4.7

4.7

and

and

then

then

about

about

30

30

years

years

ago

ago

we

we

then

then

had

had

a

a

very

very

high

high

level

level

of

of

sulfur

sulfur

in

in

the

the

ocean

ocean

and

and

the

the

axes.

axes.

By the way,

By the way,

are all these slides

Are all these slides?

going to be made available to anybody who wants

going to be made available to anyone who wants it

them? Yeah, okay.

Them? Yeah, okay.

These will be available to you in case you

These will be available to you in case you

want to study the

want to study the

details.

details.

So these graphs are often

So these graphs are often

referred to as the great acceleration

referred to as the great acceleration

graphs. Now I'm going to focus in

graphs. Now I'm going to focus on

on a few

on a few

components of

components of

this era

this era

of spectacular global

of spectacular global

environmental change. And first,

changement environnemental. Et d'abord,

biodiversity.

biodiversity.

So for

So for

20 years or so,

About 20 years,

specialists have been

specialists have been

making the argument that

making the argument that

we are in the

we are in the

early stages of

early stages of

a sixth

a sixth

great extinction event.

great extinction event.

There have been five big ones

There have been five big ones.

in the history of life on

in the history of life on

Earth. Big ones are defined

Earth. Big ones are defined.

as having 75%

as having 75%

reduction in

reduction in

the total number

the total number

of species. Now,

of species. Now,

in

in

2024, we aren't anywhere close

2024, nous n'en sommes pas près.

to that, but the rate

à cela, mais le taux

of species extinction

of species extinction

has climbed extremely

has climbed extremely

dramatically

dramatically

in the last century

in the last century

or two.

or two.

This chart

Ce tableau

looks only at

looks only at

mammals,

mammals,

vertebrates

vertebrates

of all kinds, including

de toutes sortes, y compris

birds and mammals.

birds and mammals.

But if you

Mais si tu

include insects,

include insects,

if you include

if you include

molluscs,

molluscs,

probably

probablement

the scale of extinction

the scale of extinction

in the last century,

in the last century,

and especially the last

and especially the last

40 or 50 years,

40 or 50 years,

is even greater.

is even greater.

It's harder to count small

It's harder to count small.

things like insects, so

things like insects, so

we really don't know for sure, but the

we really don't know for sure, but the

specialists who do this,

specialists who do this,

have concluded that.

have concluded that.

So,

So,

there is a realistic chance that we

there is a realistic chance that we

are at the beginning

are at the beginning

of a sixth

of a sixth

mass extinction, which

mass extinction, which

would leave a permanent

would leave a permanent

record

record

in the strata of the Earth,

in the strata of the Earth,

a fossil record.

a fossil record.

Second, water.

Second, water.

Here again,

Here again,

the

the

point of inflection,

point of inflection,

in the middle of the 20th century,

in the middle of the 20th century,

is visible. These are

is visible. These are

total

total

global freshwater

global freshwater

withdrawals,

withdrawals,

which means

which means

extracting freshwater from rivers

extracting freshwater from rivers

and lakes and streams.

et des lacs et des ruisseaux.

Mainly for use

Mainly for use

in agriculture.

in agriculture.

And

And

part of the reason

partie de la raison

behind this,

behind this,

upsurge

upsurge

in water use, is

in water use, is

the

the

technology

technology

available for

available for

creating big irrigation

creating big irrigation

dams, and hydroelectric dams,

dams, and hydroelectric dams,

and multi-purpose dams,

and multi-purpose dams,

which developed

which developed

primarily in the 1930s

principalement dans les années 1930

and 40s,

and 40s,

and reached a peak

et a atteint un sommet

in 1968.

in 1968.

That was the year

That was the year.

when the largest number of big dams

when the largest number of large dams

15 meters

15 meters

or taller

or taller

was created.

was created.

Thirdly,

Troisièmement,

the atmosphere.

the atmosphere.

And Professor Harper showed you

And Professor Harper showed you

this curve

this curve

as well, the so-called

as well, the so-called

Keeling curve.

Keeling curve.

And just to be clear,

Et juste pour être clair,

the

the

annual

annual

ups and downs

hauts et bas

are just seasonal

are just seasonal

changes

changes

that reflect

that reflect

the

the

growing season

growing season

in the northern or the southern

in the northern or the southern

hemisphere.

hemisphere.

At any rate,

In any case,

this is the

this is the

record

record

taken

taken

by measurements

par mesures

in Hawaii

in Hawaii

since 1957.

since 1957.

And in some respects, it's a

And in some respects, it's a

discouraging one,

discouraging one,

because all the

because all the

international politics

international politics

trying to address climate

trying to address climate

change

change

appear to have had

appear to have had

no impact.

no impact.

Although,

Although,

conceivably, the slope

conceivably, the slope

of the curve could have been steeper still

The curve could have been even steeper.

without the

sans le

efforts that have been

efforts that have been

made. Here's a much

made. Here's a much

longer view

longer view

from ice cores

des carottes de glace

as well as from

as well as from

since 1957,

since 1957,

the direct measurements

the direct measurements

made in Hawaii.

made in Hawaii.

And this longer view

And this longer view

since 1700

since 1700

allows you

allows you

to see again

to see again

the significance

the significance

of the middle of the 20th century

of the middle of the 20th century

in changing the slope

in changing the slope

of this curve

of this curve

of carbon dioxide concentrations

of carbon dioxide concentrations

in the atmosphere.

in the atmosphere.

For

For

the entire

the entire

Holocene,

Holocene,

the last 12,000

the last 12,000

years,

years,

carbon dioxide concentrations

concentrations de dioxyde de carbone

have been within

ont été à l'intérieur

a band

a band

between 280

between 280

and 260

and 260

parts per million

parts per million

with

with

modest fluctuations.

modest fluctuations.

But

But

they escaped that band

They escaped that gang.

in the 19th century

in the 19th century

and then took off

et ensuite s'est envolé

in the middle of the

in the middle of the

20th century.

20ème siècle.

Here's the

Here’s the

very long term, 800,000

very long term, 800,000

years of

years of

carbon dioxide

carbon dioxide

concentrations.

concentrations.

And

And

so this

so this

goes back way before the

dates back long before the

Holocene into the

Holocene into the

Pleistocene. And

Pleistocene. And

here the variations have been

here the variations have been

made between

made between

180 and 280

180 et 280

parts per million.

parts per million.

And this is

And this is

almost certainly true

presque certainement vrai

back two and a half

back two and a half

million years.

million years.

We don't have an ice record

We don't have an ice record.

before 800,000 years ago,

before 800,000 years ago,

but there are other

but there are others

ways

ways

to try to

to try to

judge

judge

the amount of

the amount of

carbon dioxide in the atmosphere

carbon dioxide in the atmosphere

in the soil.

in the soil.

And these go back two and a half million

And these go back two and a half million.

years. And they show the same

years. And they show the same

thing.

thing.

Fluctuations between 180

Fluctuations between 180.

and 280

and 280

parts per million.

parts per million.

But then, starting in the middle

Mais alors, en commençant au milieu.

of the 20th century,

of the 20th century,

breaking out

éclatement

dramatically from that band

dramatically from that band

at a rate of change entirely

at a rate of change entirely

unprecedented.

unprecedented.

And

And

a hundred times the rate of

a hundred times the rate of

change

change

of the last

of the last

glaciation.

glaciation.

And the last

And the last

deglaciation as well.

deglaciation as well.

So the

So the

scale and

scale and

the pace of

the pace of

carbon dioxide accumulation

accumulation de dioxyde de carbone

in the atmosphere, especially

in the atmosphere, especially

since about 1950,

since about 1950,

is without

is without

precedent

precedent

in the last two and a half million

in the last two and a half million

years.

years.

And probably

Et probablement

since the Miocene,

since the Miocene,

maybe 12, 15

maybe 12, 15

million years ago.

million years ago.

Fourth,

Quatrième,

energy. Energy is

énergie. L'énergie est

what I regard, and

what I regard, and

Professor Harper also

Professor Harper also

considers energy very important,

considers energy very important,

what I regard as

what I consider as

the single most important

the single most important

explanation

explanation

behind

behind

the Great Acceleration and

the Great Acceleration and

the

the

Second Acceleration.

Second Acceleration.

And here again,

And here again,

in the middle of the 20th century,

in the middle of the 20th century,

you can see

you can see

a change in the

a change in the

slope of the curve,

slope of the curve,

sharply inclining upwards.

sharply inclining upwards.

Most of the reason for that

La plupart de la raison pour cela.

is the advent of oil,

is the advent of oil,

and secondarily,

et secondairement,

natural gas,

natural gas

new fossil fuels,

nouvelles sources de combustibles fossiles,

on top of

on top of

the prior

the prior

fossil fuel regime

fossil fuel regime

of coal.

of coal.

And

And

according to

according to

one of the members

one of the members

of the Anthropocene Working Group,

of the Anthropocene Working Group,

Jaya Sivitsky,

Jaya Sivitsky,

humankind

humanité

has used

has used

more energy

more energy

since 1950

since 1950

than in the

than in the

11,700 years

11,700 ans

of the Holocene

of the Holocene

prior to 1950.

prior to 1950.

And I think she's probably

Et je pense qu'elle est probablement

right.

D'accord.

So,

So,

this is why

c'est pourquoi

I regard energy

I regard energy

as at the core

as at the core

of the

of the

explanation for the Anthropocene

explanation for the Anthropocene

and the Great Acceleration.

and the Great Acceleration.

Population

Population

growth is also significant,

growth is also significant,

although I would

bien que je le ferais

argue less significant

argue less significant

than the energy system

than the energy system

that we built

that we built

in the 20th century.

in the 20th century.

The total number

The total number

of humans

of humans

up through 2023

jusqu'en 2023

this, the lighter green,

ceci, le vert plus clair,

is projection,

is projection,

and the projection

et la projection

may or may not be accurate.

peut être ou peut ne pas être précis.

But up to 2023

Mais jusqu'en 2023.

and 8 billion humans,

and 8 billion humans,

these are reliable data.

these are reliable data.

And you can see

And you can see

again that the middle

again that the middle

of the 20th century

of the 20th century

was a turning point

was a turning point

in the long-term,

in the long term,

in the history

in history

of human

of human

population.

population.

The thinner curve,

The thinner curve,

this one here,

this one here,

is the rate

is the rate

of population growth.

of population growth.

And

And

here it's

here it's

the 1940s

the 1940s

when this

quand cela

late 1940s

fin des années 1940

when this really begins to

when this really begins to

accelerate.

accelerate.

Incidentally,

Incidentally,

this sharp

ce sharp

dip

dip

is the

is the

so-called Great Leap Forward

so-called Great Leap Forward

in modern Chinese history.

dans l'histoire moderne de la Chine.

An effort

An effort

by Mao

by Mao

Zedong to

Zedong to

industrialize China

industrialiser la Chine

overnight that

overnight that

contributed to

contributed to

a large-scale famine.

a large-scale famine.

So before I get into

So before I get into

the debates

the debates

regarding the

concerning the

legitimacy

legitimacy

of the Anthropocene,

of the Anthropocene,

I want to summarize

I want to summarize.

the differences

the differences

between the Great Acceleration

between the Great Acceleration

and the Anthropocene

and the Anthropocene

and try to sharpen

et essaie d'aiguiser

the distinction

the distinction

between the two concepts.

between the two concepts.

So,

So,

in my judgment,

in my judgment,

they both begin

ils commencent tous les deux

at the middle of the 20th century.

in the middle of the 20th century.

The Great Acceleration

The Great Acceleration

has begun to end.

has begun to end.

I wouldn't say that it's

I wouldn't say that it's

genuinely ended yet,

genuinely ended yet,

but it's ending.

mais ça se termine.

The pace

The pace

of population growth

of population growth

has slowed dramatically.

has slowed dramatically.

Not only have we passed

Not only have we passed

peak child, as Professor Harper showed you,

peak child, as Professor Harper showed you,

but just look at the

but just look at the

descent in the rate

decrease in the rate

of population growth

of population growth

in the last three

in the last three

decades.

decades.

It's falling just about

It's falling just about.

as fast as it rose

as fast as it rose

in the late 20th,

in the late 20th century,

or mid to late 20th century.

or mid to late 20th century.

The energy intensity

The energy intensity

of the global economy

of the global economy

has begun to decline.

has begun to decline.

That is the amount

That is the amount.

of energy required

of energy required

for each unit

for each unit

of economic production.

of economic production.

The total

The total

energy use

energy use

has begun

has begun

to stabilize

to stabilize

and looks like it is

et on dirait que c'est

set to decline.

destiné à décliner.

Total

Total

fresh water use

freshwater use

has stabilized.

has stabilized.

It may or may

It may or may not.

not be set to decline.

not be set to decline.

But a number of the important

Mais un certain nombre des importants.

driving forces and indicators

driving forces and indicators

of the Great Acceleration

of the Great Acceleration

are stabilizing.

are stabilizing.

I think there's every

I think there's everything.

prospect that

prospect that

in the next decade

in the next decade

or two or three,

or two or three,

all those curves

all those curves

that I show you will level off

that I show you will level off

and stabilize.

and stabilize.

And the Great Acceleration will be over.

And the Great Acceleration will be over.

The Anthropocene,

The Anthropocene,

on the other hand,

on the other hand,

even though the

even though the

geologists have formally rejected it,

geologists have formally rejected it,

I maintain

I maintain

is here to stay

est là pour rester

for tens of thousands

for tens of thousands

and probably millions

et probablement des millions

of years.

of years.

The

The

indications

indications

of it

of it

such as

such as

changed

changed

chemical

chemical

composition of the atmosphere

composition of the atmosphere

are extremely unlikely

are extremely unlikely

to undo themselves

to undo themselves

within

within

centuries or even

centuries or even

millennia.

millennia.

And

And

we

we

have

have

almost certainly

almost certainly

postponed the next

postponed the next

glaciation cycle

glaciation cycle

in the history of the Earth

in the history of the Earth

by at least 500,000

d'au moins 500 000

years and probably

années et probablement

by half a million years.

by half a million years.

That's a gigantic change

C'est un changement gigantesque.

in future Earth

in future Earth

history for which our

history for which our

energy system is primarily

The energy system is primarily

responsible.

responsible.

The new sea levels,

The new sea levels,

sea level

niveau de la mer

in my lifetime

in my lifetime

has increased by about this much

has increased by about this much

on average around the world.

on average around the world.

By the end

By the end

of the 21st century,

of the 21st century,

the average

the average

guess,

guess,

the middle scenario,

the middle scenario,

is by about this much.

is by about this much.

The new sea

The new sea

levels, which may be

niveaux, qui peuvent être

much

much

higher than that,

higher than that,

5 meters, 10 meters, 15 meters,

5 meters, 10 meters, 15 meters,

above present sea levels,

above present sea levels,

are sure

are sure

to endure for

to endure for

many, many thousands

des milliers, des milliers

of years, probably at least

of years, probably at least

200,000 years.

200,000 years.

And that's because

Et c'est parce que

the heat that is now

the heat that is now

accumulating in the oceans

accumulating in the oceans

has nowhere else to go.

has nowhere else to go.

It's going to stay in the oceans.

It's going to stay in the oceans.

The oceans will continue to expand

The oceans will continue to expand.

spatially.

spatially.

The acidification

The acidification

of the ocean

of the ocean

is also impossible

is also impossible

to reduce

to reduce

in short order.

in short order.

It's extremely difficult

It's extremely difficult.

and unlikely that anything

et peu probable que quoi que ce soit

could reduce it in short order.

could reduce it in a short time.

And the

And the

coral reefs, which

coral reefs, which

depend on a certain

depend on a certain

level of acidity,

level of acidity,

I think it's around

I think it's around.

8.2

8.2

on the

on the

acidity

acidity

scale,

scale,

the coral reefs

the coral reefs

are disappearing all around the world,

disparaissent à travers le monde,

as you probably know,

as you probably know,

and to judge by prior

and to judge by prior

episodes

episodes

in which coral reefs

in which coral reefs

disappeared and then

disparu puis

were reconstituted,

were reconstituted,

it takes millions of years

it takes millions of years

for that

for that

cycle

cycle

to play itself out.

to play itself out.

So it will probably be millions of years

So it will probably be millions of years.

again before

again before

the coral reefs

the coral reefs

return to something like

return to something like

the condition of

the condition of

1980

1980

or 1950.

or 1950.

And there are all sorts of new

And there are all sorts of new.

strata in the rock

strata in the rock

that are going to endure

that are going to endure

for millions of years.

for millions of years.

The Paris

The Paris

metro system's

metro system's

tunnels, which,

tunnels, which,

I think,

I think,

were begun at the end of the 19th century,

were begun at the end of the 19th century,

they may not survive

they may not survive

as metro tunnels.

like metro tunnels.

They may cave in,

Ils pourraient céder,

but they'll be

mais ils seront

distinctive geological

distinctive geological

strata for millions of years.

strata for millions of years.

There will be

There will be

plastics in

plastiques dans

the Earth's

the Earth's

strata for thousands

strata for thousands

of years,

of years,

possibly longer than that.

possibly longer than that.

It's not entirely clear how

It's not entirely clear how.

slowly some

slowly some

plastic compounds

composés plastiques

degrade.

degrade.

And of course all the

And of course all the

species that have gone extinct

species that have gone extinct

lately and all those that are

lately and all those that are

going to go extinct in the near future,

going to go extinct in the near future,

they will never return

they will never return

and they will leave a permanent

et ils laisseront un permanent

fossil record

fossil record

as long as the Earth remains.

as long as the Earth remains.

So

So

that's why I say the

c'est pourquoi je dis le

Anthropocene is set to

Anthropocene is set to

endure

endure

for tens

pour des dizaines

of thousands, probably hundreds

of thousands, probably hundreds

of thousands, maybe millions

of thousands, maybe millions

of years. But of course something

of years. But of course something

else could happen. An asteroid

else could happen. An asteroid

could hit the Earth

pourrait frapper la Terre

as a big one did 66

as a big one did 66

million years ago

million years ago

and create yet

et créer encore

a new

a new

interval of geological time.

intervalle de temps géologique.

Eventually something

Eventually something

like that is sure to happen.

like that is sure to happen.

But

But

for now and probably

pour l'instant et probablement

for many thousand years

for many thousand years

I say the Anthropocene

I say the Anthropocene.

is with us.

is with us.

So,

So,

some of the debates.

some of the debates.

As Professor Harper mentioned,

As Professor Harper mentioned,

the term was

the term was

launched

launched

in 2000

in 2000

although the concept

although the concept

without the term

without the term

had existed previously.

had existed previously.

There were scientists thinking

There were scientists thinking.

about the role of

about the role of

humankind in changing

humankind is changing

the face of the Earth

the face of the Earth

back into the 19th and even

back into the 19th and even

the very late 18th

the very late 18th

century. In fact the Comte de Buffon

century. In fact, the Count de Buffon

not far from here was among

not far from here was among

the first to think in those terms.

the first to think in those terms.

It looks

It looks

to me

to me

that the

that the

popularity of the concept

popularity of the concept

of the Anthropocene is

of the Anthropocene is

...

Please provide the text you would like me to translate.

unusual in the

unusual in the

history of science

history of science

and

and

...

Please provide the text you would like translated from French to English.

analogous perhaps

analogous perhaps

to some

to some

of the other

of the other

big ideas in

big ideas in

science that took a few decades

science that took a few decades

to establish themselves such

to establish themselves such

as plate tectonics

as plate tectonics

which was first

which was first

...

Please provide the text you would like translated.

published as an idea

published as an idea

about 1915 and formally accepted

about 1915 and formally accepted

ou l'idée de l'évolution par la sélection naturelle,

or the idea of evolution by natural selection,

qui a aussi pris plusieurs décennies

which also took several decades

avant que la majorité des scientifiques l'acceptent,

before the majority of scientists accept it,

et que la majorité des êtres humains ne l'acceptent pas encore.

and that the majority of human beings do not accept it yet.

C'est ce que nous avons fait.

That's what we did.

Et la majorité des êtres humains ne l'acceptent pas encore.

And the majority of human beings do not accept it yet.

C'est très similaire à l'image que le professeur Harper vous a présentée,

It's very similar to the image that Professor Harper presented to you,

sur l'abattement de l'idée de l'anthropocène,

on the diminishing of the idea of the Anthropocene,

surtout depuis 2010.

especially since 2010.

Et ce sont des livres seulement, pas des articles.

And these are only books, not articles.

La majorité de ces livres sont écrits par les gens

Most of these books are written by people.

dans la littérature et la philosophie,

in literature and philosophy,

comme je l'ai mentionné auparavant.

as I mentioned earlier.

Maintenant, certaines des objections

Now, some of the objections

sont liées à la parole,

are linked to speech,

moins à la conception.

less in the design.

C'est ce qui reviendra.

That is what will come back.

Le préfixe anthropo, selon certains critiques,

The prefix anthropo, according to some critics,

est responsable des changements

is responsible for the changes

qui font partie de l'anthropocène

which are part of the Anthropocene

pour tout le monde humain.

for all human beings.

C'est la critique.

It's the criticism.

Et cela, bien sûr,

And that, of course,

serait un...

would be a...

un...

one...

une grosse distorsion

a big distortion

des faits historiques.

historical facts.

Parce que certaines personnes

Because some people

sont beaucoup plus responsables

are much more responsible

de tous les changements

of all the changes

qui font partie des systèmes de l'Earth

which are part of the Earth systems

que d'autres.

than others.

L'avantage de l'ambassadeur mozambique

The advantage of the Mozambique ambassador

a eu presque zéro impact

had almost zero impact

sur les systèmes d'opération de l'Earth.

on the operational systems of the Earth.

Alors que quelqu'un comme moi,

While someone like me,

qui vole dans l'Atlantique

who flies in the Atlantic

pour vous parler au Collège de France,

to speak to you at the Collège de France,

a eu plus d'impact.

had more impact.

Et selon un étude

And according to a study

faite par un collègue en Austrie,

made by a colleague in Austria,

Roman Abramovich,

Roman Abramovich,

je crois que c'est son nom,

I believe that's his name.

le propriétaire du club de football de Londres,

the owner of the London football club,

Arsenal,

Arsenal,

et un oligarque russe,

and a Russian oligarch,

il a le plus grand

he has the biggest

impact de l'Earth

impact of the Earth

sur les systèmes d'Earth

on Earth systems

parce qu'il volait

because he was flying

dans son propre jet

in his own jet

tout le temps.

all the time.

Il a environ

He is about

20 000 fois

20,000 times

l'impact que j'ai.

the impact that I have.

Il maintient aussi 7 ou 8 maisons

He also maintains 7 or 8 houses.

et ainsi de suite.

and so on.

Donc,

So,

c'est la première objection

this is the first objection

concernant

concerning

le préfixe

the prefix

et ce qu'il semble imposer

and what it seems to impose

concernant la responsabilité.

regarding responsibility.

Les géologistes disent que

Geologists say that

le préfixe ne dit rien

the prefix says nothing

concernant la responsabilité.

regarding responsibility.

Les préfixes pour tous les autres

The prefixes for all the others

niveaux de temps

time levels

dans l'histoire de l'Earth

in the history of Earth

ne signifient rien.

mean nothing.

Le Jura,

The Jura,

qui est nommé

who is named

après la chaîne de montagne

after the mountain range

française-suisse,

Swiss French.

le Jura,

the Jura

ça ne signifie pas

that doesn't mean

que les montagnes du Jura

that the Jura mountains

ont causé

have caused

ou sont responsables

Where are the responsible ones?

de cet intervalle

of this interval

de temps géologique.

geological time.

Non.

No.

Ce que ça signifie,

What it means,

c'est que dans les montagnes du Jura,

it's that in the Jura mountains,

les scientifiques ont trouvé

scientists have found

le plus fort

the strongest

indicateur,

indicator,

le meilleur

the best

échec

failure

entre

between

l'époque

the time

avant

before

le Jura

the Jura

et

and

l'époque

the time

de

of

le Jura.

the Jura.

De toute façon,

Anyway,

c'est probablement

it's probably

trop tard

too late

de changer

to change

le terme

the term

d'anthropologie

of anthropology

dans

in

l'histoire

the story

de l'Earth

of the Earth

et

and

de la

of the

l'anthropocène

the Anthropocene

à

to

l'anthropocène

the Anthropocene

de

of

Crawford

Crawford

et

and

d'autres

others

objections

objections

sont

are

que

that

utiliser

to use

le terme

the term

et

and

le concept

the concept

de l'anthropocène

of the Anthropocene

empêche

prevents

les

the

constituants

constituents

politiques

policies

pour

for

la

the

conservation

conservation

biologique

biological

et

and

pour

for

la

the

caution

caution

et

and

la

the

présence

presence

humaine

human

sur

on

l'Earth.

the Earth.

Ce que je veux dire

What I mean

c'est que

it's that

l'anthropocène

the Anthropocene

est

is

déjà

already

avec

with

nous

we

,

,

alors

so

pourquoi

why

pas

not

consciemment

consciously

mettre

to put

l'artifact

the artifact

humain

human

sur

on

l'Earth

the Earth

?

?

Si

If

l'anthropocène

the Anthropocene

est

is

déjà

already

avec

with

nous,

we,

alors

then

pourquoi pas

why not

consciemment

consciously

gérer

to manage

l'Earth

the Earth

grâce

thanks

à

to

la géo-ingénierie

geoengineering

pour

for

atteindre

to reach

une

one

Terre optimale ?

Optimal Earth?

Maintenant,

Now,

pour moi,

for me,

en tant qu'historien,

as a historian,

je suis

I am

un

one

connaisseur

connoisseur

des conséquences

consequences

inutiles

useless

et

and

la géo-ingénierie

geoengineering

me

me

effraie.

screech owl.

C'est

It is

impossible

impossible

de faire

to do

seulement

only

ce qu'on

what we

intègre

integrate

dans

in

des

some

grands

big

systèmes

systems

complexes.

complexes.

Donc,

So,

je suis

I am

fortement

strongly

opposé

opposed

à

to

la géo-ingénierie,

geoengineering,

alors

then

je dois

I must

dire

to say

que Paul

that Paul

Crutzen

Crutzen

était

was

à

to

l'aise

the ease

pendant

during

un

one

temps,

time,

alors

so

qu'il a

that he has

changé

changed

son

his

esprit.

spirit.

Les objections

The objections

dans

in

ce concept

this concept

sont

are

que

that

certains géologues

some geologists

disent,

they say,

et je comprends

and I understand

la logique

the logic

de cet argument,

from this argument,

que c'est

what is it

trop tôt

too early

de passer

to spend

le jugement

the judgment

et d'accepter

and to accept

l'anthropocène

the Anthropocene

comme unité

as a unit

de temps géologique

geological time

parce qu'il est

because he is

seulement

only

environ

about

70

70

ans.

years.

Alors,

So,

attendons

let's wait

10 000

10,000

ou 1

or 1

million

million

d'années

of years

et

and

ensuite

then

décider.

decide.

Mais

But

l'anthropocène

the Anthropocene

n'est pas

is not

utile

useful

dans

in

la géologie.

geology.

Et

And

le point

the point

de diviser

to divide

l'histoire

the story

de l'Earth

of the Earth

dans

in

toutes

all

ces unités

these units

de temps

time

est

is

d'être utile,

to be useful,

de faire

to do

plus facile

easier

pour nous

for us

de parler

to speak

et de penser

and to think

l'histoire

the story

de l'Earth.

of Earth.

Et

And

l'anthropocène

the Anthropocene

est trop

is too

court

court

pour être utile,

to be useful,

certains disent.

some say.

Et

And

d'autres,

others,

y compris

including

le secrétaire général

the Secretary-General

de l'Union

of the Union

internationale

international

des sciences

sciences

géologiques,

geological,

disent

say

que

what

le concept

the concept

est illégitime

is illegitimate

parce qu'il y a

because there is

des membres

members

de l'anthropocène

of the Anthropocene

qui ne sont pas

which are not

géologues.

geologists.

Et

And

il y en a.

There are some.

Il y a

There is/There are

deux

two

histoires

stories

qui

who

sont

are

deux

two

historiens.

historians.

Il y a

There is/There are

deux

two

archéologues,

archaeologists,

un

one

avocat,

lawyer,

et

and

il y avait

there was

un journaliste

a journalist

avant qu'il ne quitte,

before he leaves,

et

and

quelques autres.

some others.

Mais

But

c'est

it is

environ

about

80%

80%

géologues

geologists

et

and

stratigraphes,

stratigraphers,

ce subset

this subset

de géologie

of geology

dont j'ai

of which I have

parlé

spoken

précédemment.

previously.

Et

And

concernant

concerning

cette

this

objection,

objection,

c'est la notion

it's the concept

que

what

l'idée

the idea

elle-même

herself

était

was

d'abord

first

avancée

advance

pas

not

par un géologue,

by a geologist,

mais

but

par un

by a

chemiste

chemist

atmosphérique,

atmospheric,

Paul

Paul

Crutzen.

Crutzen.

Je

I

pense

think

que

that

aucune

none

de ces

of these

objections

objections

porte

door

assez

enough

de poids,

of weight,

particulièrement

particularly

la dernière.

the last one.

Si

If

une

one

bonne

good

décision

decision

est

is

dite

said

par

by

l'Etat,

the State,

cela

this

n'est pas

is not

une

one

décision

decision

de la

of the

société.

society.

C'est

It is

une

one

décision

decision

qui

who

n'est

is not

que

that

une

one

décision

decision

qui

who

est

is

vraiment

really

une

one

décision

decision

de la

of the

société.

society.

C'est

It is

tout

everything

The idea of evolution through natural selection, which is good science, was very politically controversial, and remains politically controversial.

The idea of evolution through natural selection, which is good science, was very politically controversial, and remains politically controversial.

Not least in the state where Professor Harper comes from.

Not least in the state where Professor Harper comes from.

Thank you very much.

Thank you very much.

These arguments depend on which kind of evidence one prefers, and that usually depends on which academic or scientific discipline one has been trained in.

These arguments depend on which kind of evidence one prefers, and that usually depends on which academic or scientific discipline one has been trained in.

So for Paul Crutzen, atmospheric chemistry was where we should look for evidence about the advent,

So for Paul Crutzen, atmospheric chemistry was where we should look for evidence about the advent,

or the birthday, or the beginning of the Anthropocene.

either the birthday, or the beginning of the Anthropocene.

For paleontologists, and there is one on the Anthropocene Working Group,

For paleontologists, and there is one on the Anthropocene Working Group,

it is the fossil record where we should look for evidence concerning the beginning of the Anthropocene.

It is in the fossil record that we should look for evidence concerning the beginning of the Anthropocene.

So a large part of the quarrel is just based on how we are socialized into,

So a large part of the quarrel is just based on how we are socialized into,

science, and the academic world.

science, and the academic world.

Unfortunately, in stratigraphy, there has to be one golden spike, one birthday for the Anthropocene.

Unfortunately, in stratigraphy, there has to be one golden spike, one birthday for the Anthropocene.

We can't have a gradual onset of the Anthropocene,

We can't have a gradual onset of the Anthropocene,

even if that seems to correspond to the way historians, such as myself,

even if that seems to correspond to the way historians like me,

might interpret it.

pourrait l'interpréter.

So, I'm coming to my conclusion now.

So, I'm coming to my conclusion now.

As I said before, and as Professor Harper alluded to,

As I said before, and as Professor Harper alluded to,

earlier this month, officially,

earlier this month, officially,

the International Union of the Geological Sciences rejected

the International Union of the Geological Sciences rejected

the proposal from the Anthropocene Working Group

the proposal from the Anthropocene Working Group

that the Anthropocene should be used as a source of information.

that the Anthropocene should be used as a source of information.

So, I'm coming to my conclusion now.

So, I'm coming to my conclusion now.

I'm coming to my conclusion now.

I'm coming to my conclusion now.

So, I'm coming to my conclusion now.

So, I'm coming to my conclusion now.

devraient être adoptés et formalisés.

should be adopted and formalized.

Donc, ça ne se passe pas.

So, it's not happening.

Alors, où se trouve-t-il l'anthropocène ?

So, where is the Anthropocene found?

La première chose que je dirais,

The first thing I would say,

c'est que,

it is that,

parce que ce n'est pas formalisé,

because it is not formalized,

il va devenir plus confus

he will become more confused

en tant que concept,

as a concept,

parce que plus et plus de gens

because more and more people

l'utiliseront pour signifier

they will use it to signify

des choses plus et plus différentes.

more and more different things.

Et si je suis vrai sur cela,

And if I am true about this,

cela signifie que la utilité

this means that the utility

du terme va diminuer.

the term will decrease.

C'est déjà un peu confus.

It's already a bit confusing.

Je pense que ça va devenir plus confus.

I think it's going to get more confusing.

L'Union internationale

The International Union

pour les sciences géologiques

for geological sciences

parle de essayer de banir

talk about trying to ban

l'utilisation du terme

the use of the term

dans les publications officielles

in official publications

de l'Union internationale

of the International Union

pour les sciences géologiques

for geological sciences

et dans les réunions annuelles

and at the annual meetings

de l'IUGS.

from the IUGS.

Je ne pense pas qu'ils vont le faire.

I don't think they are going to do it.

Je pense que ce serait

I think it would be

trop staliniste

too Stalinist

d'approche de la science

of the approach to science

pour eux.

for them.

Mais qui sait ?

But who knows?

On verra dans un mois ou deux.

We'll see in a month or two.

Les géologistes

The geologists

sont maintenant

are now

en effet

indeed

et inadvertement

and inadvertently

invités

guests

à d'autres sciences

to other sciences

et d'autres types

and other types

de sciences géologiques.

of geological sciences.

Mais ils n'ont pas fait

But they didn't make.

de travail.

of work.

Ils n'ont pas fait de travail

They did not do any work.

pour de fait.

for indeed.

Ils sont systématiquement

They are systematically

à la hauteur

at the height

de leurs agendas

from their agendas

dans le concept

in the concept

d'anthropocène.

of the Anthropocene.

Donc je pense que ce qui va

So I think that what is going

se passer

to happen

est plus et plus

is more and more

d'un discours d'anthropocène

of an Anthropocene discourse

qui est focalisé

who is focused

sur des problèmes

on problems

que les géologistes

that geologists

n'en ont pas besoin.

do not need it.

Des problèmes

Problems

comme la causation,

like causation,

des problèmes

problems

comme l'éthique,

like ethics,

des problèmes

problems

comme les valeurs,

like values,

etc.

etc.

Et,

And,

et, inévitablement, la politique.

And, inevitably, politics.

En faisant le concept de l'anthropocène

In creating the concept of the Anthropocene

prohibitif,

prohibitive

dans la géologie,

in geology,

les géologistes

the geologists

surrendent

surrender

le discours d'anthropocène

the discourse of the Anthropocene

à tout le monde.

to everyone.

J'ai écrit ce slide

I wrote this slide.

il y a deux ou trois jours

two or three days ago

et j'ai dit que le groupe de travail d'anthropocène

and I said that the Anthropocene working group

allait être disbandé.

was to be disbanded.

Eh bien, ça s'est passé.

Well, it happened.

Hier.

Yesterday.

Nous n'avons pas été dit de cela.

We were not told about that.

C'est juste que le site web

It's just that the website

de l'IUGS

from the IUGS

a oblité toute référence

has obliterated all reference

à la groupe de travail d'anthropocène

to the Anthropocene working group

et à l'anthropocène

and to the Anthropocene

et

and

à tous les données

to all the data

que mes collègues

that my colleagues

ont mis en place.

have established.

Donc, le groupe de travail d'anthropocène

So, the Anthropocene working group.

n'est plus officiel.

is no longer official.

Mais,

But,

les 37

the 37

scientifiques et scolaires

scientists and schools

dans ce groupe,

in this group,

je suis sûr,

I am sure,

vont continuer à travailler.

will continue to work.

Ils ont travaillé cette semaine

They worked this week.

en générant de nouveaux papiers,

by generating new papers,

de nouveaux données

new data

en soutien du concept

in support of the concept

de l'anthropocène.

of the Anthropocene.

Et je pense aussi

And I think so too.

qu'au bout d'un moment,

after a while,

l'anthropocène

the Anthropocene

sera formalisé.

will be formalized.

Ça peut prendre

It can take.

50 ans,

50 years old,

ça peut prendre 80 ans.

It can take 80 years.

Certains précédents

Some precedents

intervals de temps géologique

geological time intervals

ont pris tant de temps

took so much time

pour être adoptés

to be adopted

officiellement.

officially.

Mais ça pourrait se passer en 10 ans.

But it could happen in 10 years.

Parce que

Because

la légalité actuelle

the current legality

de l'anthropocène,

of the Anthropocene,

la légalité actuelle

the current legality

de l'Union internationale

of the international union

des sciences géologiques

geological sciences

et la légalité actuelle

and the current legality

de l'unité de vote

of the voting unit

de la subcommission

of the subcommittee

sur la stratigraphie

on stratigraphy

de la quaternarie,

of the Quaternary,

elles vont changer.

They are going to change.

Et quand de nouveaux gens

And when new people

viennent,

come,

l'issue peut être révisée

the outcome can be revised

et un résultat différent,

and a different result,

peut-être.

maybe.

C'est ce qui s'est prévu.

That's what was planned.

En fin de semaine,

At the end of the week,

l'Assemblée d'entreprises anthropocènes

the Assembly of Anthropocene Enterprises

a produit un nouveau paper

produced a new paper

avec encore plus de graphiques

with even more graphics

comme ça.

Like that.

Et encore plus de graphiques

And even more charts

comme ça.

like that.

Et en termes de fin,

And in terms of an ending,

je vais dire que

I will say that

en plus de continuer

in addition to continuing

son travail,

his work,

l'Assemblée d'entreprises anthropocènes

The Assembly of Anthropocene Enterprises

a, selon moi,

according to me,

commencé

started

à chercher

to look for

des effets

effects

sur la situation,

on the situation,

sur les gens,

about people,

sur les buy-outs,

on buy-outs,

de manoeuvrer la bureaucratie de la géologie

to maneuver the geology bureaucracy

en appuyant les médias et le public avec leurs arguments,

by supporting the media and the public with their arguments,

ce qui est très difficile pour les géologistes et les stratigraphes

what is very difficult for geologists and stratigraphers

parce que leur langue est très difficile

because their language is very difficult

et chargée de l'écosystème technique et scientifique.

and responsible for the technical and scientific ecosystem.

Donc expliquer-les-mêmes à un public général n'est pas facile pour eux.

So explaining themselves to a general audience is not easy for them.

Et ils commencent aussi à chercher des alliances plus fortes à l'extérieur de la géologie,

And they also start looking for stronger alliances outside of geology,

mais dans la science naturelle,

but in the natural science,

tout ce qui est intent de changer le résultat plus tôt plutôt que plus tard,

everything that is intended to change the outcome sooner rather than later,

et

and

ils gagnent la formalisation pour le concept de l'anthropocène.

They gain the formalization for the concept of the Anthropocene.

Donc,

So,

comme je le vois,

as I see it,

la formalisation de l'anthropocène est indéfiniment postponée,

the formalization of the Anthropocene is indefinitely postponed,

mais ça ne sera peut-être pas longtemps, peut-être une décennie ou deux.

but it may not be long, maybe a decade or two.

En même temps, le concept de l'anthropocène va devenir moins précis,

At the same time, the concept of the Anthropocene will become less precise,

plus vague et confus,

more vague and confusing,

et par conséquent moins utile,

and consequently less useful,

ce qui pourrait fonctionner contre la formalisation au long terme.

what could work against long-term formalization.

Le concept de l'accélération supérieure,

The concept of superior acceleration,

il me semble, est plus étroit, plus clair,

it seems to me, is narrower, clearer,

parce qu'il est moins controversé et moins utile.

because it is less controversial and less useful.

Donc, pour le moment, cela pourrait être plus utile,

So, for the moment, this could be more useful,

mais pour le moment, cela pourrait être un concept plus facile à travailler avec.

but for the moment, this could be a concept that is easier to work with.

De toute façon, c'est comme je le vois.

Anyway, that's how I see it.

Merci beaucoup pour votre patience,

Thank you very much for your patience,

et merci au Collège de France et au professeur Harper

and thanks to the Collège de France and Professor Harper

pour cette opportunité de partager mes opinions avec vous.

for this opportunity to share my opinions with you.

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