#119-1 馬渕・渡辺の #ビジトピ OA本編 ハリス vs トランプ 初めての討論会はどちらに軍配？

おはようございます経済アナリストのまぶちまりこです

Good morning, I am Mariko Mabuchi, an economic analyst.

消費経済アナリスト渡辺裕明です

I am Hiroaki Watanabe, a consumption economy analyst.

9月15日日曜日朝6時を回りました東京FMビジット日

It is past 6 AM on Sunday, September 15th, Tokyo FM Visit Day.

渡辺さんよろしくお願いします

Mr. Watanabe, I look forward to working with you.

昨日も暑かったですね

It was hot yesterday too, wasn't it?

暑かったですね蒸し暑かったですね

It was hot, wasn't it? It was humid, too, wasn't it?

今日も同じくらいみたいですね

It seems like today is similar as well.

でも局地的に雨降るみたいですね

It seems like it's going to rain in localized areas.

滝のような雨?

Rain like a waterfall?

局地的に気をつけないとね

We need to be careful locally.

そうですね

That's right.

今日は三連休の真ん中

Today is the middle of the three-day weekend.

明日は経路の日

Tomorrow is Route Day.

皆さんどうお過ごしですかね

How is everyone doing?

私ね明日浜松に一人暮らしてるお袋に会いに行きますよ

I'm going to Hamamatsu tomorrow to visit my mom, who lives alone.

親子ですね

It's a parent and child, isn't it?

ちょっと海外に行かなきゃいけないので

I have to go abroad for a bit.

お小遣いをもらいに

To get my allowance.

何歳ですか

How old are you?

年金からお小遣いをもらいに行こうかなと

I was thinking of going to get some pocket money from my pension.

そんなそんな

No way, no way.

ちょっとちょっと

Hey, hey!

うちの経路の日だからね

It's our route day, you know.

まあまあまあ持ってきますよこれ

Well, well, well, I'll bring this over.

冗談ね

Just kidding.

なんか岸和田行ってたらしいじゃないですか

I heard you went to Kishiwada or something.

岸和田の断じりにちょっとお招きいただいて行ってきたんですけど

I was invited to Kishiwada's Danjiri and went there.

政治家の方々もたくさんいらっしゃって

There are many politicians here as well.

いろいろお話伺ったんですけど

I heard various things from you, but...

まず熱狂

First, enthusiasm.

人気がすごい

The popularity is amazing.

人がすごい

People are amazing.

それからやっぱり命を懸けてやってらっしゃるので

After all, you are doing it with your life on the line.

感動しましたね

I was moved.

日本の伝統ですね

It's a Japanese tradition, isn't it?

浜松にも浜松祭りっていい祭りがあるんですけど

Hamamatsu also has a great festival called the Hamamatsu Festival.

祭りをやる人はね

Those who hold the festival, you see,

一年そのためだけにきっちり頑張れられてるので

I've been working hard for a whole year just for that.

断じりも一度行ってみたいですね

I would like to experience the float festival at least once.

市民の力で成り立ってる素晴らしいお祭りでしたね

It was a wonderful festival supported by the power of the community.

僕はですね

Well, I...

今週が実はスキマバイトを始めましたね

I actually started a part-time job this week.

何ですかタイミーとかですか

What is it, something like "timey"?

まあちょっとそこは避けますけど

Well, I'll avoid that a little.

スキマバイト始めて

I started working a side job during my free time.

荷物の仕分けを始めました

I started sorting the luggage.

早朝2時間

Two hours in the early morning.

ちょっとあんまりね

That's a bit much, isn't it?

主義義務があるので細かいことは話せないですけど

I can't talk about the details because of my obligations to my principles, but...

バイト仲間も良い人で

My part-time job colleagues are also nice people.

受け入れ側も良い人で

The receiving side is also good people.

めちゃめちゃ良かったんですけど

It was really, really good.

前日申し込んですぐできたので

I was able to do it right after applying the day before.

翌朝

The next morning.

それもやっぱすごいなと思ったのと

I thought that was really amazing too.

やっぱりですね

As I thought.

アプリ操作したら仕事終わって

After using the app, I finished my work.

操作瞬間に

At the moment of operation

僕の静岡銀行の口座にお金が入ったんですよ

Money was deposited into my Shizuoka Bank account.

3100円が

3100 yen

ありがたい

I'm grateful.

めちゃめちゃありがたいなと

I'm really grateful.

モチベーションに上がりますね

It really boosts my motivation.

すごいなと

That's amazing.

これラストワンマイルの仕事だったんですね

So this was a last mile job, huh?

物流の

logistics

こういうスキマバイトみたいなのやると

When you do part-time jobs like this...

今結構配送のネックになってるんですけど

Right now, it's quite a bottleneck for deliveries.

こういう解決策もあるのかなと思ったりとか

I was wondering if there might be such solutions as this.

田辺さん貢献してますね

Mr. Tanabe is making contributions, isn’t he?

これからちょっとスキマバイト

I’m going to do a side job for a little while.

バンバンやっていこうと思いますので

I think I will do it vigorously.

また教えてください

Please tell me again.

よろしくお願いします

Thank you in advance.

ということで

So, that's it.

今日も生放送では

Today is also a live broadcast.

プレゼントまぶちさんお願いします

Please give me a present, Mabuji-san.

今週は薬用歯磨き

This week is medicinal toothpaste.

クリーンデンタルトータルケアを5名様に

Five winners will receive Clean Dental Total Care.

そしてもう一つ

And one more thing.

今週から書店に並んでる私の新刊

My new book is now on sale at bookstores starting this week.

まぶちまりこの金融経済ノート

Marubuchi Mariko's Financial Economics Notes

こちらを5名の方にプレゼントします

I will give this as a present to five people.

どちらもご応募いただければ

If you apply for either one.

ここはXから番組公式アカウントをフォローして

Follow the official program account from X here.

指定のポストをリポストしてください

Please repost the designated post.

本はね超わかりやすいですよ

The book is really easy to understand.

僕もねわかってるつもりでいたことがあったんですけど

I also thought I understood, but...

見直すと再度ねわかるようになるので

When you review it, you'll be able to understand it again.

超おすすめかもしれないです

It might be highly recommended.

そしてメッセージ読まれた方にもステッカーをあげちゃうので

And for those who read the message, I will give you a sticker as well.

ぜひご意見ご感想も送ってください

Please send us your feedback and comments as well.

では毎週30分長折り聞きをすれば

If you listen to long conversations for 30 minutes every week,

ビジネスとお金がわかる人になれるビジトピ

BizTopi: Become someone who understands business and money.

1週間のビジネストピックチェックしていきましょう

Let's check the business topics for the week.

まずはこちら

First over here.

ビジトピ

Bizi-topi

制作金利

Production interest rate

段階的に1%程度まで

Gradually to about 1%.

利上げ

Interest rate hike

日銀の田村審議員は

Bank of Japan's committee member Tamura

12日岡山市で行われた講演で

At the lecture held in Okayama City on the 12th,

物価動向などが

Price trends and such.

見通しに沿って推移すれば

If it proceeds according to the outlook.

制作金利を少なくとも1%程度まで

Reduce the production interest rate to at least around 1%.

引き上げておくことが

It is important to raise it.

必要だというふうに考えを示しました

I showed my thoughts that it is necessary.

また講演後の会見では

During the press conference after the lecture,

利上げのペースについて

Regarding the pace of interest rate hikes.

欧米との違い

Differences from the West.

ゆっくりとしたスペースになる可能性が

There is a possibility of becoming a slow space.

高いとコメントしています

It is commented that it is expensive.

今後の経済

Future economy

物価次第であると

It depends on the price level.

いうことを強調しています

I am emphasizing what I said.

日銀もいろいろな人がいろいろなことを言いますね

The Bank of Japan has various people saying various things, doesn't it?

そうなんですよね

That's right.

これ実際田村審議員の発言の前日

This was the day before the statement made by Member Tamura.

11日には

On the 11th,

中川潤子審議員が

Commissioner Junko Nakagawa

秋田で今後の利上げ試算を

Calculating future interest rate hikes in Akita.

したりとかされているので

It is being done or has been done.

このように総裁以外の

Other than the president, in this way.

皆さんが各地でいろんなところで

Everyone in various places all over.

講演されている内容に焦点が当たって

Focusing on the content of the lecture.

ニュースになったり

It became news.

為替が動くのは別に悪いことではないかな

I don't think it's necessarily a bad thing for the exchange rate to fluctuate.

と思っています

I think so.

むしろこうやっていろんな

Rather, in this way, various…

されるのはマーケットとの

It is done with the market.

コミュニケーションの対話の一環かなと思っていますし

I think it's part of communication dialogue.

アメリカでは当たり前の

Common in America.

ことですよね

That's right.

これまでビジットビでは

So far at VisitBe.

ドル円が135円ぐらいに

The yen to dollar exchange rate is around 135 yen.

およそ落ち着くんじゃないか

I guess it'll settle down soon.

というお話をしてきましたけども

I have shared such a story.

日銀がもし1%以上に

If the Bank of Japan were to exceed 1%

金利を上げていくとなると

If interest rates are going to be raised,

もう一段の円高もありそうです

It seems there may be another round of yen appreciation.

アメリカの

America's

利下げに関しては

Regarding interest rate cuts.

9月に始まることが濃厚で

It is highly likely that it will start in September.

今5.5%なんですけれども

It's currently 5.5%.

0.25なのか

Is it 0.25?

0.5%か

0.5% huh?

どちらかのパーセンテージで

By either percentage.

利下げに踏み切るだろうと

They will likely proceed with a rate cut.

これ細かいこととよりは

This is more about the details than anything else.

ゴールを見る方が重要で

It's more important to look at the goal.

まず年内に1%程度の

First, about a 1% increase within the year.

利下げになりそうだということと

It seems that there will be a rate cut.

これから1年かけて

Over the next year

来年の9月頃には

Around September of next year

3.2%まで金利を下げていきたいと

I want to lower the interest rate to 3.2%.

そんな見通しに

Such a prospect.

一旦なっています

It has become one for a moment.

経済のことは分からないですけど

I don't understand about the economy, but...

僕海外に行くので早めに利下げたくさんしてくれると

I'm going overseas, so I hope they will lower interest rates a lot soon.

120円くらいに

About 120 yen.

なってくれるとありがたいなと思うんですけどね

I would be grateful if you could become that way, though.

そうすると

In that case,

日本が利上げする中でどうなるんだ

What will happen as Japan raises interest rates?

というところを見ておきたいんですけど

I want to take a look at that part.

アメリカと日本のそれぞれの

Each of America and Japan.

10年差への金利差というのがあるんですが

There is an interest rate difference due to the 10-year gap.

これを見ると

When I see this...

為替の見通しが出しやすいので

It's easier to make forecasts about exchange rates.

一応持ってきました

I brought it just in case.

アメリカが金利を下げて

The United States lowers interest rates.

日本が金利を上げていくことなので

It is because Japan is going to raise interest rates.

金利差は縮小します

The interest rate differential will narrow.

それがだいたい2.5%くらいになるだろう

That will be about 2.5%.

というふうに考えると

When you think about it like that

135円

135 yen

その差が

The difference is.

2.5だと135円ですね

At 2.5, that's 135 yen.

それは先週まで言ってたことですね

That's what you were saying until last week.

これがもし2%くらいまで縮まると

If this could shrink down to about 2%...

125円くらいの

About 125 yen.

刻みになりそうなので

It seems like it will be diced.

そんな感じなのでやっぱり金利差が

Given that feeling, the interest rate difference is indeed significant.

大きく影響します

It will have a significant impact.

ただ日本企業の決算としては

However, as a financial statement of a Japanese company,

輸出企業が非常に多くて

There are a lot of export companies.

現在皆さん140円台で

Currently, everyone is in the 140 yen range.

想定為替料と置いているので

The assumed exchange rate is being used.

ちょっと日本の企業決算が

The Japanese corporate earnings are a bit...

気になるかなというところになりますね

I wonder if it will be a concern.

でも悪くないですよね

But it's not bad, right?

別に110円とか100円になるわけじゃないですもん

It's not like it will actually become 110 yen or 100 yen, you know.

そうですね過度な円高ではないんですが

Well, it's not an excessive appreciation of the yen, but...

少し下駄を脱ぐ感じになるかもしれません

It might feel a bit like taking off your geta.

続いてはこちらです

Next is this.

イギリスで

In the UK

週休3日制法案提出へ

Proposal for a three-day workweek bill.

イギリスの

of the United Kingdom

スターマー政権が

The Starmer administration is...

週休3日制の導入を盛り込んだ法案を

A bill that includes the introduction of a three-day weekend system.

来月提出する検討に入りました

I have started the examination to be submitted next month.

これはイギリスのメディアが報じたもので

This was reported by the British media.

1週間の労働時間の合計は

The total working hours for the week are

変えずに

Without changing.

労働者の裁量で働く日数を変えられる形にする

To allow workers to change the number of days they work at their discretion.

というもの

"That being said" or "That is to say"

あくまでも労働者が望めが適用される仕組みと

It is a system that is applied as long as the workers wish for it.

いうことですということなんですね

So, it means that's what it says.

僕ねやっぱりね

I really, you know.

働く多様性があっていいことなんじゃないかなと思いますね

I think having diversity in the workplace is a good thing.

今ね週休3日ではないですけど

Well, right now I don't have a three-day weekend.

日本でもですね完全週休2日よりも

In Japan as well, more than a complete two-day weekend...

休日が実質的に

Holidays are essentially

多い制度というのを取っているところが

Places that have a lot of systems in place.

8%あるので

Since there is 8%

3日にはなってないんですけど徐々にこういう働き方が

It's not the 3rd yet, but this kind of work style is gradually emerging.

増えているんじゃないかなと思います

I think they are increasing.

消費の観点から

From the perspective of consumption.

見るとですねまず僕の個人消費の

When I look at it, first my personal consumption...

観点から見ると収入ダウンしなければ

From this perspective, as long as there is no decrease in income.

個人消費には

Personal consumption includes

高益を与える可能性あるんじゃないかと

I think it has the potential to bring high benefits.

思っていて

I was thinking.

休みが1日増えればですね

If we could add one more day off, that would be great.

安金丹のレジャーとして国内旅行や観光

Domestic travel and sightseeing as leisure activities for the elderly.

イベント外食などの機会も増えますし

Opportunities for dining out at events will also increase.

今まで土日に集中しているとか

It's been focused on the weekends until now.

平日に移行するので

"Because we are transitioning to weekdays."

働く側にとって

For those who are working.

提供する側にとってもすごく効率が

It's really efficient for the provider as well.

良くなるなと思ったりします

I sometimes think it might get better.

安金丹安くて近くて短い

Ankandam is cheap, close, and short.

短いところの国内旅行

Short domestic travel.

あと趣味に費やす時間も増えるので

Also, the time spent on hobbies will increase.

例えばDIY

For example, DIY.

とか園芸とかペットとか

Things like gardening and pets.

そういうところにもチャンスが生まれるんじゃないかな

I think opportunities arise in places like that.

と一方ですね

And on the other hand.

増えた休日で

With the increased holidays

自己啓発も励む人も増えてくると思うので

I think there will be an increasing number of people who are also working on self-improvement.

キャリアアップのために

For career advancement.

時間をつなげれば

If you connect the time

日本の国力もアップになるし賃金もアップすると

Japan's national power will also increase, and wages will rise as well.

さっき言ったように僕みたいに

As I said earlier, like me...

スキマバイトを始める人がいれば

If there are people who are starting a side job in their spare time,

仕事の効率も良くなるのかなと

I wonder if the work efficiency will improve.

あと健康を考えている人もいるので

There are also people who are considering their health.

ジムやフィットネスヨガランニング

Gym, fitness, yoga, running.

もう一つ視点としてはですね

Another perspective is that...

介護とか育児とかあるじゃないですか

There's caregiving and child-rearing, among other things, right?

そのあたりにも

Around there too.

高影響を与えるんじゃないのかなと

I wonder if it will have a high impact.

ただ心配している人もいて

There are also people who are just worried.

一日休みが短くなる

The day off becomes shorter.

増えるということは

To increase means

働いている4日間めちゃめちゃ残業しなければいけないんじゃないかとか

I might have to do a lot of overtime during the four days I'm working.

逆のハードになりそう

It seems like it will be the opposite hard.

ハードになるんじゃないかとかって

I wonder if it’s going to be hard.

いろいろな懸念点もあるんですけど

There are various concerns as well.

これやりながら見ていかなきゃいけないなという風な思いもありますね

I feel like I have to keep an eye on this while doing it.

僕もちょっと

Me too a little.

サラリーマンとして働いていたので分かるんですけど

I understand because I worked as a salaryman.

例えば経理とか総務とか

For example, accounting or general affairs.

広報みたいな一般的な仕事と

A general job like public relations and

営業みたいな取引先とやり取りを

Communications with clients like in sales.

時間をコントロールできない仕事とかですね

It's a job where you can't control your time, for example.

やっぱりマーケティング

After all, it's marketing.

開発などクリエイティブな仕事

Creative work such as development.

管理職と一般職など

Management positions and general positions, etc.

課題はちょっと散席するんですけども

The issue is that I will be a little absent.

まずはやっぱり

First of all, it’s important to...

一回やってみるというのがあるので

There’s something about trying it out once.

日本もぜひ検討してほしいなと

I hope you will consider Japan as well.

僕週休3日もOKにしてもいいんですけど

I'm fine with a three-day weekend too.

逆に週休0.5日でもOK

On the contrary, having 0.5 days off per week is also okay.

休まないで

Don't rest.

働きたいという人も働けるルールみたいなのも

It’s like a rule that allows people who want to work to be able to work.

多様的に作っていったらいいなと思ったりするんですけど

I think it would be nice to create things in a diverse way.

山本さんどうですかねこれは

How is this, Mr. Yamamoto?

そうですね雇用の多様化っていうのは

Well, the diversification of employment is...

すごく重要ですよね

It's really important, isn't it?

これに関わる内容

Content related to this.

次最後いきましょうか

Shall we go to the last one?

これに関連する国内のトピックです

This is a domestic topic related to this.

自民党総裁選

Liberal Democratic Party Presidential Election

開戸規制緩和も焦点に

The relaxation of the opening door regulations is also a focus.

27日

27th

投開票を迎える自民党総裁選で

In the upcoming voting and counting for the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election.

開戸規制緩和が

Deregulation of the open-door policy.

争点の一つとして浮上しました

It emerged as one of the points of contention.

これは河野デジタル大臣の発言と

This is a statement from Minister of Digital Transformation Kono.

それを受けた小泉慎二郎

Shinjiro Koizumi received that.

元環境大臣の発言が

The statement from the former Minister of the Environment

きっかけとなったもので

It was the catalyst that triggered...

雇用者が従業員を

Employer and employee.

首にしやすくなるとの懸念から

Due to concerns that it may become easier to suffocate.

反発の声も上がってますと

Voices of opposition are also being raised.

首にしやすくなるのがダメだと思いますよね

I think it's not good if it becomes easy to strangle someone.

そうですねこれ私なりに論点を整理しますと

Well, let me organize the points in my own way.

まず反対派の方ですね

First, let's hear from the opposing side.

不当な開戸によって

Due to unjust dismissal

労働者が守られない

Workers are not protected.

それから日本は開戸規制が厳しいと思われがち

It is often thought that Japan has strict regulations on opening up.

だけれどもOECDの調査では

However, according to the OECD survey,

意外と日本はゆるいんですよと

Surprisingly, Japan is quite relaxed.

そうなんですね

I see.

そういうご意見があったりしました

There were such opinions expressed.

賛成派の方は日本の開戸ルールというのは

Those in favor believe that Japan's Opening Door Rule is...

昭和50年頃の

Around the year 1975.

反例をベースになっていて

Based on counterexamples.

労働契約法16条に

Article 16 of the Labor Contract Act

規定されているしかしこれは

It is stipulated, but this is...

就寝雇用を前提とする高度経済成長期

The period of high economic growth based on lifetime employment.

つまり

In other words.

経済が拡大していくような

As the economy expands.

時の考え方のままやっているでしょう

You are probably doing it the way you think about time.

そのままだからね

It's just the way it is.

今考え方変えた方がいいんじゃないかというのが

Maybe it's time to change the way of thinking.

賛成派の意見なんですね

It seems to be the opinion of those in favor.

いきなり

All of a sudden.

雇用開戸自由化という話ではなく

It's not a matter of liberalizing employment regulations.

まずこの金銭解決の

First, regarding this financial settlement...

ルールというのが論点の

The rule is the point of contention.

不条に上がってきています

It is increasing unfairly.

これが河野さんですね

This is Mr. Kono, right?

河野さんは金銭解決を導入しましょう

Mr. Kono, let's introduce monetary resolution.

これは不当開戸された方が

This is regarding someone who has been unjustly evicted.

職場復帰ではなく

Not a return to work.

お金で解決する仕組み

A system that solves problems with money.

これに関しては

Regarding this

2000年代に入ってから

Since the 2000s began.

何度も議論されてきて

It has been discussed many times.

第二次安倍政権の時にも

During the second Abe administration,

二度に議論されてきたんですが

It has been debated twice.

見送られてきたと

"I have been seen off."

河野さんはこのことをおっしゃっています

Mr. Kono is saying this.

小泉さんはまた違って

Mr. Koizumi is different again.

金銭解決の話ではなく

It's not a matter of monetary resolution.

おそらく大企業に限定した

Probably limited to large companies.

開戸規制の緩和

Relaxation of opening door regulations

そこで

Therefore

そこにリスキリーニングをプラスして

Adding risk-learning to that.

なんとか雇用を流動化しようというところで

In an effort to somehow promote the fluidity of employment.

いろんなことがいろんなことを

Various things are various things.

言い始めてきている

It has started to be said.

中小企業のことはあまり考えていないんですね

You don't really think about small and medium-sized enterprises, do you?

もちろん中小企業のことも考えていらっしゃいますが

Of course, you are also considering small and medium-sized enterprises.

なかなか雇用の流動化という時には

When it comes to the fluidity of employment, it's not easy to...

大企業の方がやりやすいので

Because it's easier with larger companies.

まずは大企業に言及されているということです

First of all, it refers to large companies.

私は金融の目線なので

I have a financial perspective.

これらを踏まえて

Taking these into consideration.

一つ申し上げるならば

If I may say one thing,

FRB

FRB

向こうの中央銀行は

The central bank over there

物価と雇用に責任があります

I am responsible for prices and employment.

日銀行は

The Japan Bank is

雇用に責任がないので

Because there is no responsibility for employment.

いろんな雇用が流動化していく

Various forms of employment are becoming more fluid.

世界になるのであれば

If it becomes the world

やっぱり日銀ももしかしたら

Perhaps the Bank of Japan might...

雇用の責任を受け負った方がいいのかな

I wonder if I should take on the responsibility of employment.

というふうに思ったりしました

I thought that way.

それから私自身の論点ですけれども

Then, regarding my own point.

私今実はスタートアップ企業の

I'm actually in a startup company right now.

正社員であって

As a full-time employee

上場企業の社外役を務めていて

I am serving as an external director for a listed company.

自分の会社もあるので

Because I have my own company too.

多様な

Diverse

多様な働き方をしています

I have a diverse way of working.

これ一つの場所で

In this one place.

200%やりきりたかったんです

I wanted to give it my all, 200%.

それができきらなかったことで

Because I couldn't do that.

溢れ出るように他のところで

Overflowing to other places

仕事をさせていただいているんですが

I am allowed to work.

この感覚を雇われる側

The feeling of being on the hired side.

フリーの側の

On the side of free.

特徴的な感覚だと思うので

I think it's a characteristic sensation.

これが経営者の側とか

This is from the perspective of the management.

政治家の方が

Politicians

もしかしたら感覚としてないかもしれないので

It might not be a feeling, though.

このあたりも議論の中に

This area is also part of the discussion.

入れていく必要があるかなと思っています

I think it's necessary to include it.

僕もフリーランスなんて今の気持ちすごく分かるんですけど

I really understand how you feel about being a freelancer right now.

一方ですね

On the other hand,

大手3社のサラリーマンとして30年近く

As a salaried employee of a major company for nearly 30 years.

働いていて感覚としては

While working, the feeling is...

初期の頃は平成の

In the early days, during the Heisei era.

働きすぎの非効率だったんですよね

It was inefficient due to overworking.

働きすぎ

Overworking.

今は働かない人による非効率に変わってきているのを

It is becoming inefficient due to people who are not working now.

すごく肌で感じているんですよ

I can really feel it in my skin.

働いていない人結構給料もらっている人が多いなって感じていて

I feel that there are quite a few people who are not working but are receiving a good salary.

これ2022年の

This is from 2022.

日本生産本部の調査を見ても

Even when looking at the research from the Japan Production Headquarters,

OECD38カ国中

Among the 38 OECD countries

30位なんですって労働生産性

They say we're ranked 30th in labor productivity.

だからこれね

So, this is it.

労働生産性を上げるって形を取らないと

We need to take measures to improve labor productivity.

いけないしやっぱ開国規制まではいかないんですけど

It's not good, and I guess we won't go as far as opening the country.

働かない人に対しては

To those who do not work

きっちり働く体制を持っていくことが

Establishing a solid working system.

大事なんじゃないかなって思ったりもしてますね

I think it might be important.

あとやっぱり一番大事なのは

And after all, the most important thing is...

フリーランスの人口がこれから増えていくので

The population of freelancers is expected to increase from now on.

大企業中小企業の会社に

To large and small companies.

雇用されている方のルールも変えるのも

Changing the rules for those who are employed as well.

必要なんですけどやっぱフリーランスと

I need it, but I'm still a freelancer after all.

このところのルールも変えていかないと

We need to change the rules as well.

今の時代に合っていないのかなと

I wonder if it doesn't fit the current era.

なんでちょっと手前の議論が多すぎになっていて

Why are there so many arguments about the matter just before this?

もっとトータル的な

More holistic.

雇用の関係の議論を

Discussion on employment relationships.

自民党も立憲民主党もしてほしいなって

I hope both the Liberal Democratic Party and the Constitutional Democratic Party will do something.

今回の総裁選を見てものすごく思っています

I have very strong feelings about this presidential election.

ということで

So, that being said.

そしてこの後は今週世界が注目した

And after this, the world focused on this week.

トランプ対ハリス

Trump vs. Harris

初めての討論会を受けて

After participating in my first debate.

城地大学前嶋教授にお話をお伺いいたします

We will hear from Professor Majima from Jochi University.

ビジトピ

BizTopi

東京FM

Tokyo FM

まぶち渡辺のビジトピ

Mabuchi Watanabe's Biz Topi

経済アナリストのまぶちまりこと

Economic analyst Mariko Mabuchi.

消費経済アナリスト渡辺平明をお送りしています

We are presenting consumer economy analyst Hiraaki Watanabe.

今日のゲストはこの方

Today's guest is this person.

城地大学教授で現代アメリカ政治外交が

Professor at Jochi University specializing in contemporary American politics and diplomacy.

ご専門の前嶋和弘さんです

This is Mr. Kazuhiro Maejima, an expert in the field.

どうぞよろしくお願いします

Thank you very much in advance.

おはようございます

Good morning.

昨日はマスター行ったんですよ

I went to the master yesterday.

ドラゴンズの

Dragons'

ドラゴンズ話すると怒られるんで

If I talk about the Dragons, I'll get scolded.

でもね弱かったですね

But you were weak, weren't you?

乗ってくださいました

Thank you for riding.

そんな大事なこと話しましょうね

Let's talk about such an important thing.

先生ほんと連日ね

Teacher, you're really working every day.

連日

Day after day.

まずはこの10日に行われました

First of all, it took place on the 10th.

共和党トランプ対

Republican Trump vs.

民主党ハリス

Democratic Party Harris

両大統領候補によるね

By both presidential candidates.

初めてのテレビ討論ご覧になって

Did you watch the first television debate?

率直なご感想いかがでしょう

What are your honest impressions?

すごいですよね

It's amazing, isn't it?

近年の討論会って

Recent debates are...

政策を論じてなくて

Not discussing policy.

あいつはダメだ

That guy is no good.

ずっと最初から最後まで言ってるわけですね

You've been saying it from the very beginning to the end, haven't you?

なるほど

I see.

とりあえずいろんなこと

For now, various things.

景気から始まって

Starting from the economy

移民とか女性の権利

Immigration and women's rights.

妊娠中絶ですね

It's an abortion, isn't it?

カップルの権利だかどうかとか

Whether it's about couples' rights or not.

あとは気候変動とか

And then there's climate change, etc.

全部言ってるんだけど

I'm saying everything.

頭に残らない

It doesn't stick in my head.

一番のポイントが

The most important point is

トランプが一番言いたかったのは

What Trump really wanted to say was

She is Biden

彼女はバイデンです。

あなた目の前にいるのに

Even though you are right in front of me.

彼女はバイデンなんだから

She's Biden, after all.

バイデンと変わらないぜとか

"It's no different from Biden."

それの言葉

The words of that.

ハリスが言いたいのは

What Harris wants to say is

もう昔に戻るんじゃなくて

It's not about going back to the past anymore.

前へ行きましょうよという

Let's move forward.

そのメッセージを最初から最後まで

From the beginning to the end of that message.

いかに言葉を変えて言ってるかなので

It's about how the words are being changed and expressed.

全然政策について

About the policy at all.

議論しますにならないんですね

It won't become a discussion, will it?

不思議な感じでしたね

It was a strange feeling, wasn't it?

人気投票みたいになっちゃいますね

It feels like a popularity contest.

まさにそうなんです

That's exactly right.

昔は違ったんですよね

It was different in the past, you know.

討論会ってアメリカの小学校とか中学校とか

Discussion meetings are like those in American elementary and middle schools.

必ず録画しといて

Make sure to record it.

学校で見せて

Show it at school.

大人というのはこういう風にまともに議論するんですよ

Adults engage in discussions like this, seriously.

と言ったんだけど

I said that, but...

トランプさんの登場以降

Since the appearance of Mr. Trump

見ててはいけないものになる

It will become something that should not be seen.

模範にはならない

I will not be a role model.

どういうことかというと

What it means is that...

16年の討論会の時に

At the time of the discussion on the 16th year.

ヒラリー・クリントンさんが話してる時に

When Hillary Clinton is speaking

この嫌な女めって

This annoying woman!

かぶせで言って

Say it with a cover.

イエナースティ・オーマンって言って

Say "IANASTY OMAN."

これを見た瞬間みんな衝撃を受けて

The moment everyone saw this, they were shocked.

これはもうってことで

This is already settled, then.

昔は大学は主催してたんですが

In the past, the university used to host it.

今は主催しないからメディアが主催するんですよ

I'm not hosting it now, so the media is hosting it.

そういうことか

I see what you mean.

だから今回もABC側とかですね

So this time, it's also the ABC side, huh?

そういう話なんですね

So that's the story, huh?

前嶋先生から見て

From Professor Maeshima's perspective

一旦軍配はどちらに上がった感じですか

Which side do you feel has the upper hand for now?

これそういう形で

This is in that form.

どこにも評価できないので

Because it cannot be evaluated anywhere.

どっちもどっち

It's six of one, half a dozen of the other.

ただですね

Well, you see...

どちらの思想も納得はしている

I understand both perspectives.

という感じだと思いますね

I think that's how it feels.

ただ一方民主党側の方が

However, on the other hand, the Democratic Party side...

より納得度が大きいのかなと

I wonder if it's more convincing.

どういうことかというと

What this means is

ハリスさんは副大統領になって

Ms. Harris became the Vice President.

3年と9ヶ月ですけども

It's been 3 years and 9 months.

あまり外に出なかった

I didn't go out much.

これはそもそも副大統領って役割がそんなにないのと

This is fundamentally because the role of the vice president isn't that significant.

バイデン政権ってのは

The Biden administration is...

オバマ政権の3期目みたいなもので

It's like a third term of the Obama administration.

ほとんど役割が決まっているので

Since most roles are already decided

副大統領だからいろいろやらせて

Since I'm the vice president, let me handle various things.

なかなかやらせてくれてなくて

They haven't been letting me do it at all.

難しい移民対策とか

Difficult immigration measures and such.

選挙の平等とかやらせるんだけど

They make us do things like ensure equality in elections.

うまくいかないし

It's not going well.

メディアとの対応が悪いということで

Due to poor relations with the media.

全然ハリスさんが外に出なかった

Mr. Harris didn't go outside at all.

ですので人々としては

Therefore, as people,

本当にしっかり話せるだろうか

Can we really talk properly?

トランプさんの前でメロメロにならない

Not to be infatuated in front of Mr. Trump.

ボロボロにならないだろうかとか

I wonder if it won't fall apart.

それを注目していた

I was paying attention to that.

かなり期待度が低いので

Since the level of expectation is quite low,

なかなかうまく準備してうまいよね

You're quite good at preparing well, aren't you?

という意味で民主党側が少しプラスでしょうね

In that sense, the Democratic Party side has a slight advantage, I suppose.

意識的にはね

Consciously, yes.

ハリスさん喋ったの見たことなかったので

I had never seen Mr. Harris talk before.

それはアメリカ人も同じなんですよね

It's the same for Americans too.

結構本当に話せるだろうか

I wonder if I can really speak well.

本当にメモなしで

Really without notes.

テロップなしで

Without subtitles.

話せるだろうかという段階なんですよね

It's at the stage where I'm wondering if I can speak.

でもうまくやったんだろうと

But I guess they did well.

一度に準備をしたということで

Because you prepared everything at once.

でもその後のインタビュー

But the interview afterwards

単独インタビューとかがあっても

Even if there are solo interviews...

まだしっかり話せるだろうかと

I wonder if I can still speak properly.

みんな不安に思っている

Everyone is feeling anxious.

まだその段階なんです

We're still at that stage.

その意味ではハリスさんうまくやった

In that sense, Mr. Harris did well.

と思っているんだと思うので

I think that's what you're thinking.

これが終わった後

After this is over.

いくつか世論調査を見ているんですが

I'm looking at several opinion polls.

今は分断ときっこなのでほとんど数字は動かない

Right now, due to the division and the wait, most numbers aren't changing.

動いて

Move.

トランプさんとバイデンさんの時

During Trump and Biden's time.

6月末の時も

At the end of June too.

1ポイントぐらい2ポイントぐらい動いただけ

It only moved about 1 or 2 points.

トランプさん実はそうだった

Mr. Trump was actually like that.

今回もそうなんですよ

It's the same this time too.

ハリスさんの数字って2ポイントぐらいしか動いていない

Mr. Harris's numbers have only moved by about 2 points.

いい加減なその場で

Being irresponsible at that moment.

CNNが聞きましたって

CNN asked.

統計誤差5%6%

Statistical error 5% 6%

6%ぐらいある統計としたクズみたいな

It's like a piece of trash with around 6% in statistics.

ものを聞くと

When I ask about something

60%67%ハリスさん勝ったとか

I heard that Harris won 60% to 67%.

あれは全く当てにならない

That is completely unreliable.

あれはどちらでもないっていうのが一番重要なんですけど

The most important thing is that it's neither one nor the other.

どちらでもないって質問もないし

There’s no question of neither.

ひどい統計の調査なんですけど

It's a terrible statistical survey, though.

世論の調査なんですけど

It's a public opinion survey.

いずれにしても実際今出てきている数字も

In any case, the numbers that are currently emerging...

ほぼまだ合格と

Almost passed.

昔アメリカが真ん中にあって

In the past, America was in the center.

分断でなかった頃って

"When it wasn't divided."

討論会があって

There is a discussion meeting.

今回みたいなハリスさんが

Like Mr. Harris this time.

多くの人が勝ったと見ている時って

When many people see it as a victory.

10ポイントぐらい差が出るんですよ

There is about a 10-point difference.

15ポイントとか

Like 15 points.

そういう時代じゃないから

It's not that kind of era anymore.

固定の応援団が民主党側も共同党側もいるので

There are fixed supporters on both the Democratic Party side and the Joint Party side.

ほぼ何も動かない

Almost nothing moves.

あとちょっとの

Just a little bit more.

そもそもアメリカの政治って

What is American politics to begin with?

風が吹かない

The wind is not blowing.

選挙は風が吹かないので

Because there is no wind during elections.

ほんのちょっと取り合っていく

Just a little bit of back and forth.

こんな動きになりますね

This is how it will move.

結局でも7州の争っているところの

In the end, it's about the dispute over the seven states.

民主党掛け合わせをどっちか入れるか

Should we include one of the Democratic Party hybrids?

決めてない人が決めるってことですよね

It means that a person who hasn't decided is the one making a decision, right?

おっしゃる通り

As you say.

先週かな

Maybe last week.

ある民主党の幹部の人と

With a certain senior member of the Democratic Party.

ズームで話したんですけど

I talked on Zoom.

今年の選挙は5万人が決めるよ

This year's election will be decided by 50,000 people.

って言って

Say that.

やっぱり5万人が決めるんですね

As expected, it's decided by 50,000 people, isn't it?

アメリカ大統領

President of the United States

アメリカの人口で3億4千万人

The population of America is 340 million.

もうちょっと人口多いかな

It might be a little more populated.

だけど5万人で

But with 50,000 people.

5万人も民主党側共和党がいるので

There are 50,000 people on the Democratic Party side and the Republican Party.

2万5千

25,000

2万5千を取り合って

Fighting over 25,000.

本当にそういう人たちは選挙に行ってくれるかどうか

Will those kind of people really go out and vote?

そういうことですよね

That's right, isn't it?

そうなんですね

I see.

無党派の中の民主党

The Democratic Party among the non-partisans.

もし選挙に行ったら民主党でも

If I went to the election, it would be for the Democratic Party.

ほとんど寝てるかもしれない

I might be almost asleep.

選挙に行ったら共和党だけど

When I went to vote, it was the Republican Party.

基本的にあんまり行かない人たち

Basically, people who don’t go out much.

ここら辺をやる気がない人たちは

People around here who lack motivation

無理やり個別訪問で

By forcibly conducting individual visits.

日本では認められていませんけど

It is not recognized in Japan, though.

アメリカではそれが基本なので

In America, that's the basic rule.

個別訪問でそこで誰が重要かを割り出して

Identify who is important there during individual visits.

マイクロターゲティングといいますか

It's called micro-targeting.

それで選挙についていくと

So, regarding the election...

そういうパターンですよね

That's the kind of pattern, isn't it?

その5万人というのはバイデンさんもいいや

That 50,000 is fine with Biden as well.

トランプさんもいいやって

I guess Trump is fine too.

ダブルヘイターの方とはまた違う

It's different from the double hater.

ちょっと違いますね

It's a little different.

ダブルヘイターってついこの間ぐらいまで

Until just recently, I thought "double hater" was...

言ったんですが

I said it, but...

1回目のバイデントランプの

The first Biden-Trump

討論会ぐらいでも

Even just a discussion meeting would be fine.

なくなっている

It is missing.

まだまだ話聞きたいんですけど

I still want to hear more stories.

続きはオーディンもありますので

There are also Odin for the continuation.

しっかりお伺いしましょう

Let's ask properly.

前島さんひとまずありがとうございました

Thank you for everything, Maejima-san.

ありがとうございました

Thank you very much.

東京FMから生放送でお届けしてきました

We have been broadcasting live from Tokyo FM.

マブチ・ワトナベのビジトピ

Mabuchi Watanabe's Biztopi

エンディングのお時間です

It's time for the ending.

まずはプレゼント改めてお知らせします

First of all, I will inform you about the present again.

薬用歯磨き

Medicinal toothpaste

クリーンデンタル

Clean Dental

トータルケアを5名様

Total care for 5 people.

そして私の新刊

And then my new book.

マブチ・マリコの金融経済ノート

Maruchii Mariko's Financial Economics Notes

5名様にそれぞれプレゼントします

We will give a present to each of the five participants.

ご希望の方は番組Xから

If you are interested, please contact program X.

公式アカウントをフォローして

Follow the official account.

指定のポストをリポストしてください

Please repost the specified post.

オーディでは前島先生にまだまだ聞きたいですね

I still want to ask Professor Maeshima more during the audience.

たっぷりね

Plenty.

民主党のテイラー・スイフとか

Democratic Party's Taylor Swift or something.

共和党のハルコ・ホーガンか

Is it the Republican Halco Hogan?

僕両方好きなんですよ

I like both.

これがどう影響を与えるかってことをね

It's about how this will have an impact.

ちょっと聞いてみたいなと思う

I want to ask a little about it.

ハリスさんの指示も表明されましたから

Mr. Harris's instructions have also been stated.

最初はねあれですね

At first, it's like that, isn't it?

アメリカはFOMC

The United States has the FOMC.

さっきのね金利の問題金融

The earlier issue regarding interest rates in finance.

それから日銀の介護もあるので

Also, there is support from the Bank of Japan.

かなり金融ウィークに

Quite a financial week.

そうね為替が動くかもしれないですよね

Yes, the exchange rate might fluctuate, right?

そうなんですよね

That's right.

ここハラハラしてます

I'm feeling anxious here.

マブチさんなんか明日

Mr. Mabuchi is something tomorrow.

東京FMで仕事あるんですって

I hear you have a job at Tokyo FM.

そうなんですよ

That's right.

明日16日祝日なんですが

Tomorrow, the 16th, is a holiday, but...

13時から東京FMホリデースペシャル

Tokyo FM Holiday Special from 1 PM.

三菱UFJアセットマネジメント

Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management

プレゼントシェイプザフューチャー

Present shapes the future.

投資のお悩み相談室にゲストを出演します

I will appear as a guest in the investment consultation room.

自分で

By yourself.

おかんで

At mom's place.

自分でゲストの紹介するの恥ずかしい

I'm embarrassed to introduce the guests myself.

俺が言った方がよかったんだこれ

I should have said this.

吉田明夫さんが司会でね

Mr. Akio Yoshida is the host, you know.

楽しみにしてます

I'm looking forward to it.

東京FMの皆さん

Tokyo FM everyone

僕もお金がないので

I don't have any money either.

ゲストで呼んでほしいので

I want you to invite me as a guest.

そんなこと言わないで

Don't say things like that.

よろしくお願いしますということで

Thank you in advance.

金融のお話

A discussion about finance.

投資のお話していきたいと思います

I would like to talk about investments.

僕ね今週結構現場回りまくっていて

I've been quite busy going around various sites this week.

東スポの取材で

In an interview with Tokyo Sports.

サカゼンっていうビッグサイズの

It's called Sakazen, a big size.

洋服の聖地に行ったりとかですね

Like going to the holy land of clothes.

あともう令和の米騒動が

Also, there is the Reiwa rice crisis.

早くも終演したので

It has already ended.

そのちょっと現場を回って

Just go around the site a bit.

これはね

This is it.

デイリー新調で

In the daily renewal.

明日か明後日くらい

Around tomorrow or the day after.

アップされるんですかね

I wonder if it will be uploaded.

楽しみにしてます

I'm looking forward to it.

あとコンビニ50周年なんで

Also, it's the 50th anniversary of the convenience store.

めちゃめちゃ仕事増えてて

I'm getting a lot more work than before.

リクシルさんがやってる

Lixil is doing it.

youtubeの番組で

In a YouTube program

サッカーの内田篤人選手と

Soccer player Atsuto Uchida and

あと加賀屋さんっていう

Also, there is a place called Kagawa-ya.

なんかお笑いコンビがいて

There's a comedy duo.

両方コンビニでバイトやってて

Both are working part-time at a convenience store.

那須中西さんっていう

It's someone named Nakanishi from Nasu.

10年前僕が一緒にね

I was with you 10 years ago.

コンビニロケ行った方と

I went with someone to a convenience store location shoot.

仕事したりとかですね

Things like working, you know.

この頃ね現場を回りまくってて

Lately, I've been going around to various sites a lot.

スキマバイトもやって

I'm also doing side jobs.

浜下にも行って

Let's go to Hamashita too.

俺は一体何をやってるんだと

What the hell am I doing?

ぜひたっぷり

Definitely plenty.

渡辺さん企画コーナー

Watanabe's planned corner.

作りましょうね

Let's make it, shall we?

でもねめちゃめちゃ楽しかったですよ

But it was really, really fun!

やっぱね現場にしか

"After all, it's only at the scene."

全てがないので

Because there is nothing.

ちょっと海外も今後行くんですけど

I'll be going abroad a little in the future.

積極的にいろんな国を行ってね

Actively visit various countries, okay?

日本との関係を

The relationship with Japan.

ちょっとどんどん探っていきたいな

I want to dig deeper into it a bit more.

と思ったりもしてますね

I sometimes think that way, too.

オリジナルの情報をね

Original information, you know.

どんどん発信していきたいですね

I want to keep sending out messages more and more.

そしてこの後8時配信のオーディでは

"And in the audio that will be streamed at 8 o'clock after this..."

引き続き

Continued

常治大学の前島先生に

To Professor Maejima at Joko University

大統領選について

About the presidential election.

詳しくね

In detail.

伺っていきたいと思います

I would like to visit.

それではまた来週

See you again next week.

お相手は経済アナリスト

The partner is an economic analyst.

まぶちまりこと

Mariko Mabuchi

消費経済アナリスト

Consumer Economics Analyst

渡辺裕明でした

It was Hiroaki Watanabe.